Sequential recommender systems are designed to capture users' evolving interests over time. Existing methods typically assume a uniform time interval among consecutive user interactions and may not capture users' continuously evolving behavior in the short and long term. In reality, the actual time intervals of user interactions vary dramatically. Consequently, as the time interval between interactions increases, so does the uncertainty in user behavior. Intuitively, it is beneficial to establish a correlation between the interaction time interval and the model uncertainty to provide effective recommendations. To this end, we formulate a novel Evidential Neural Stochastic Differential Equation () to seamlessly integrate NSDE and evidential learning for effective time-aware sequential recommendations. The NSDE enables the model to learn users' fine-grained time-evolving behavior by capturing continuous user representation while evidential learning quantifies both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties considering interaction time interval to provide model confidence during prediction. Furthermore, we derive a mathematical relationship between the interaction time interval and model uncertainty to guide the learning process. Experiments on real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method compared to the SOTA methods.

When a model's predicted number of events within any time interval is similar to the observed number, it is called well-calibrated. A survival model's calibration can be measured using, for instance, distributional calibration (D-CALIBRATION) [Haider et al., 2020] which computes the squared difference between the observed and predicted number of events within different time intervals. Classically, calibration is addressed in post-training analysis. We develop explicit calibration (X-CAL), which turns D-CALIBRATION into a differentiable objective that can be used in survival modeling alongside maximum likelihood estimation and other objectives. X-CAL allows us to directly optimize calibration and strike a desired trade-off between predictive power and calibration. In our experiments, we fit a variety of shallow and deep models on simulated data, a survival dataset based on MNIST, on length-of-stay prediction using MIMIC-III data, and on brain cancer data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. We show that the models we study can be miscalibrated. We give experimental evidence on these datasets that X-CAL improves D-CALIBRATION without a large decrease in concordance or likelihood.

We examined how online hate is motivated by receiving social approval via Walther's (2024) social approval theory of online hate, which argues (H1a) more signals of social approval on hate messages predicts more subsequent hate messages, and (H1b) as social approval increases, hate speech becomes more extreme. Using 110 million messages from Parler (2018-2021), we observed the number of upvotes received on a hate speech post was unassociated with hate speech in one's next post and during the next month, three-months, and six-months. The number of upvotes received on (extreme) hate speech comments, however, was positively associated with (extreme) hate speech during the next week, month, three-months, and six-months. Between-person effects revealed an average positive relationship between social approval and hate speech production at all time intervals. For comments, social approval linked more strongly to online hate than social disapproval. Social approval is a critical mechanism facilitating online hate propagation.

Operational forecasting of the ionosphere remains a critical space weather challenge due to sparse observations, complex coupling across geospatial layers, and a growing need for timely, accurate predictions that support Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), communications, aviation safety, as well as satellite operations. As part of the 2025 NASA Heliolab, we present a curated, open-access dataset that integrates diverse ionospheric and heliospheric measurements into a coherent, machine learning-ready structure, designed specifically to support next-generation forecasting models and address gaps in current operational frameworks. Our workflow integrates a large selection of data sources comprising Solar Dynamic Observatory data, solar irradiance indices (F10.7), solar wind parameters (velocity and interplanetary magnetic field), geomagnetic activity indices (Kp, AE, SYM-H), and NASA JPL's Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content (GIM-TEC). We also implement geospatially sparse data such as the TEC derived from the World-Wide GNSS Receiver Network and crowdsourced Android smartphone measurements. This novel heterogeneous dataset is temporally and spatially aligned into a single, modular data structure that supports both physical and data-driven modeling. Leveraging this dataset, we train and benchmark several spatiotemporal machine learning architectures for forecasting vertical TEC under both quiet and geomagnetically active conditions. This work presents an extensive dataset and modeling pipeline that enables exploration of not only ionospheric dynamics but also broader Sun-Earth interactions, supporting both scientific inquiry and operational forecasting efforts.

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Most machine learning algorithm designs aim to enhance label prediction accuracy.

In this paper, we study learning-augmented algorithms for the Bahncard problem.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/