The aggravating effects of climate change and the growing population in hurricane-prone areas escalate the challenges in large-scale hurricane evacuations. While hurricane preparedness and response strategies vastly rely on the accuracy and timeliness of the predicted households' evacuation decisions, current studies featuring psychological-driven linear models leave some significant limitations in practice. Hence, the present study proposes a new methodology for predicting households' evacuation decisions constructed by easily accessible demographic and resource-related predictors compared to current models with a high reliance on psychological factors. Meanwhile, an enhanced logistic regression (ELR) model that could automatically account for nonlinearities (i.e., univariate and bivariate threshold effects) by an interpretable machine learning approach is developed to secure the accuracy of the results. Specifically, low-depth decision trees are selected for nonlinearity detection to identify the critical thresholds, build a transparent model structure, and solidify the robustness. Then, an empirical dataset collected after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita is hired to examine the practicability of the new methodology. The results indicate that the enhanced logistic regression (ELR) model has the most convincing performance in explaining the variation of the households' evacuation decision in model fit and prediction capability compared to previous linear models. It suggests that the proposed methodology could provide a new tool and framework for the emergency management authorities to improve the estimation of evacuation traffic demands in a timely and accurate manner.

Causal chain reasoning (CCR) is an essential ability for many decision-making AI systems, which requires the model to build reliable causal chains by connecting causal pairs. However, CCR suffers from two main transitive problems: threshold effect and scene drift. In other words, the causal pairs to be spliced may have a conflicting threshold boundary or scenario. To address these issues, we propose a novel Reliable Causal chain reasoning framework~(ReCo), which introduces exogenous variables to represent the threshold and scene factors of each causal pair within the causal chain, and estimates the threshold and scene contradictions across exogenous variables via structural causal recurrent neural networks~(SRNN). Experiments show that ReCo outperforms a series of strong baselines on both Chinese and English CCR datasets. Moreover, by injecting reliable causal chain knowledge distilled by ReCo, BERT can achieve better performances on four downstream causal-related tasks than BERT models enhanced by other kinds of knowledge.

Boid flocking is a system in which several individual agents follow three simple rules to generate swarm-level flocking behavior. To control this system, the user must adjust the agent program parameters, which indirectly modifies the flocking behavior. This is unintuitive because the properties of the flocking behavior are non-explicit in the agent program. In this paper, we discuss a domain-independent approach for detecting and controlling two emergent properties of boids: density and a qualitative threshold effect of swarming vs. flocking. Also, we discuss the possibility of applying this approach to detecting and controlling traffic jams in traffic simulations.