Modeling and sampling from the underlying distribution of asynchronous event sequences are crucial in various real-world applications, including social networks, medical diagnosis, and financial transactions. Existing autoregressive methods suffer from error accumulation during multi-step generation, while non-autoregressive diffusion methods are typically limited to fixed-length output sequences. In this paper, we propose Latent Block-Diffusion Temporal Point Processes (LBDTPP), a novel semi-autoregressive TPP framework that introduces a latent block diffusion mechanism for high-quality and variable-length event sequence generation. The core idea is to define an autoregressive probability distribution over event blocks in latent space and perform Gaussian diffusion within each block. By sequentially generating blocks while simultaneously sampling events in each block, LBDTPP preserves the length flexibility of autoregressive TPPs and inherits the parallel high-quality generation capability of diffusion models. Theoretically, we derive Wasserstein error bounds showing that, under suitable local approximation and prefix-stability assumptions, block-wise generation can reduce error accumulation compared with event-wise autoregressive generation. Extensive experiments on six real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that LBDTPP outperforms state-of-the-art TPP baselines in both unconditional and conditional generation tasks. Further empirical analyses verify the benefits of latent-space diffusion and block-wise generation, and reveal the trade-off between generation quality and block size. Our code is available at https://github.com/Zh-Shuai/LBDTPP.

Marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) model sequences of events occurring at irregular time intervals, with wide-ranging applications in fields such as healthcare, finance and social networks. We propose the state-space point process (S2P2) model, a novel and performant model that leverages techniques derived for modern deep state-space models (SSMs) to overcome limitations of existing MTPP models, while simultaneously imbuing strong inductive biases for continuous-time event sequences that other discrete sequence models (i.e., RNNs, transformers) do not capture. Inspired by the classical linear Hawkes processes, we propose an architecture that interleaves stochastic jump differential equations with nonlinearities to create a highly expressive intensity-based MTPP model, without the need for restrictive parametric assumptions for the intensity. Our approach enables efficient training and inference with a parallel scan, bringing linear complexity and sublinear scaling while retaining expressivity to MTPPs. Empirically, S2P2 achieves state-of-the-art predictive likelihoods across eight real-world datasets, delivering an average improvement of 33% over the best existing approaches.

We propose TPP-SD, a novel approach that accelerates Transformer temporal point process (TPP) sampling by adapting speculative decoding (SD) techniques from language models. By identifying the structural similarities between thinning algorithms for TPPs and speculative decoding for language models, we develop an efficient sampling framework that leverages a smaller draft model to generate multiple candidate events, which are then verified by the larger target model in parallel. TPP-SD maintains the same output distribution as autoregressive sampling while achieving significant acceleration. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that our approach produces samples from identical distributions as standard methods, but with 2-6 speedup. Our ablation studies analyze the impact of hyperparameters such as draft length and draft model size on sampling efficiency.

Recent years have witnessed an increasing use of coordinated accounts on social media, operated by misinformation campaigns to influence public opinion and manipulate social outcomes. Consequently, there is an urgent need to develop an effective methodology for coordinated group detection to combat the misinformation on social media. However, the sparsity of account activities on social media limits the performance of existing deep learning based coordination detectors as they can not exploit useful prior knowledge. Instead, the detectors incorporated with prior knowledge suffer from limited expressive power and poor performance. Therefore, in this paper we propose a coordination detection framework incorporating neural temporal point process with prior knowledge such as temporal logic or pre-defined filtering functions. Specifically, when modeling the observed data from social media with neural temporal point process, we jointly learn a Gibbs distribution of group assignment based on how consistent an assignment is to (1) the account embedding space and (2) the prior knowledge.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Matching users to the right items at the right time is a fundamental task in recommendation systems. As users interact with different items over time, users' and items' feature may evolve and co-evolve over time. Traditional models based on static latent features or discretizing time into epochs can become ineffective for capturing the fine-grained temporal dynamics in the user-item interactions. We propose a coevolutionary latent feature process model that accurately captures the coevolving nature of users' and items' feature. To learn parameters, we design an efficient convex optimization algorithm with a novel low rank space sharing constraints. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets demonstrate significant improvements in user behavior prediction compared to state-of-the-arts.

Can we design online interventions that will help humans achieve certain goals in such asynchronous setting? In this paper, we address the above problem from the perspective of deep reinforcement learning of marked temporal point processes, where both the actions taken by an agent and the feedback it receives from the environment are asynchronous stochastic discrete events characterized using marked temporal point processes. In doing so, we define the agent's policy using the intensity and mark distribution of the corresponding process and then derive a flexible policy gradient method, which embeds the agent's actions and the feedback it receives into real-valued vectors using deep recurrent neural networks. Our method does not make any assumptions on the functional form of the intensity and mark distribution of the feedback and it allows for arbitrarily complex reward functions. We apply our methodology to two different applications in viral marketing and personalized teaching and, using data gathered from Twitter and Duolingo, we show that it may be able to find interventions to help marketers and learners achieve their goals more effectively than alternatives.

TPP models in density estimation and strongly outperforms them in forecasting.

Learning continuous-time point processes is essential to many discrete event forecasting tasks.