Humans have a powerful and mysterious capacity to reason.

We study the differences arising from merging predictors in the causal and anti-causal directions using the same data.

Scientific hypotheses typically concern specific aspects of complex, imperfectly understood or entirely unknown mechanisms, such as the effect of gene expression levels on phenotypes or how microbial communities influence environmental health. Such queries are inherently causal (rather than purely associational), but in many settings, experiments can not be conducted directly on the target variables of interest, but are indirect. Therefore, they perturb the target variable, but do not remove potential confounding factors. If, additionally, the resulting experimental measurements are high-dimensional and the studied mechanisms nonlinear, the query of interest is generally not identified. We develop an adaptive strategy to design indirect experiments that optimally inform a targeted query about the ground truth mechanism in terms of sequentially narrowing the gap between an upper and lower bound on the query. While the general formulation consists of a bi-level optimization procedure, we derive an efficiently estimable analytical kernel-based estimator of the bounds for the causal effect, a query of key interest, and demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in confounded, multivariate, nonlinear synthetic settings.

Image classification models tend to make decisions based on peripheral attributes of data items that have strong correlation with a target variable (i.e., dataset bias). These biased models suffer from the poor generalization capability when evaluated on unbiased datasets. Existing approaches for debiasing often identify and emphasize those samples with no such correlation (i.e., bias-conflicting) without defining the bias type in advance. However, such bias-conflicting samples are significantly scarce in biased datasets, limiting the debiasing capability of these approaches. This paper first presents an empirical analysis revealing that training with diverse bias-conflicting samples beyond a given training set is crucial for debiasing as well as the generalization capability. Based on this observation, we propose a novel feature-level data augmentation technique in order to synthesize diverse bias-conflicting samples. To this end, our method learns the disentangled representation of (1) the intrinsic attributes (i.e., those inherently defining a certain class) and (2) bias attributes (i.e., peripheral attributes causing the bias), from a large number of bias-aligned samples, the bias attributes of which have strong correlation with the target variable. Using the disentangled representation, we synthesize bias-conflicting samples that contain the diverse intrinsic attributes of bias-aligned samples by swapping their latent features. By utilizing these diversified bias-conflicting features during the training, our approach achieves superior classification accuracy and debiasing results against the existing baselines on both synthetic and real-world datasets.

Deep learning models for tabular data typically do not allow for imposing a graph of external dependencies between samples, which can be useful for accounting for relatedness in tasks such as treatment effect estimation. Graph neural networks only consider adjacent nodes, making them difficult to apply to sparse graphs. This paper proposes several solutions based on a modified attention mechanism, which accounts for possible relationships between data points by adding a term to the attention matrix. Our models are compared with each other and the gradient boosting decision trees in a regression task on synthetic and real-world datasets, as well as in a treatment effect estimation task on the IHDP dataset.

Machine learning models trained on real-world data may inadvertently make biased predictions that negatively impact marginalized communities. Reweighting is a method that can mitigate such bias in model predictions by assigning a weight to each data point used during model training. In this paper, we compare three methods for generating these weights: (1) evolving them using a Genetic Algorithm (GA), (2) computing them using only dataset characteristics, and (3) assigning equal weights to all data points. Model performance under each strategy was evaluated using paired predictive and fairness metrics, which also served as optimization objectives for the GA during evolution. Specifically, we used two predictive metrics (accuracy and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve) and two fairness metrics (demographic parity difference and subgroup false negative fairness). Using experiments on eleven publicly available datasets (including two medical datasets), we show that evolved sample weights can produce models that achieve better trade-offs between fairness and predictive performance than alternative weighting methods. However, the magnitude of these benefits depends strongly on the choice of optimization objectives. Our experiments reveal that optimizing with accuracy and demographic parity difference metrics yields the largest number of datasets for which evolved weights are significantly better than other weighting strategies in optimizing both objectives.

We introduce and analyse active learning markets as a way to purchase labels, in situations where analysts aim to acquire additional data to improve model fitting, or to better train models for predictive analytics applications. This comes in contrast to the many proposals that already exist to purchase features and examples. By originally formalising the market clearing as an optimisation problem, we integrate budget constraints and improvement thresholds into the label acquisition process. We focus on a single-buyer-multiple-seller setup and propose the use of two active learning strategies (variance based and query-by-committee based), paired with distinct pricing mechanisms. They are compared to a benchmark random sampling approach. The proposed strategies are validated on real-world datasets from two critical application domains: real estate pricing and energy forecasting. Results demonstrate the robustness of our approach, consistently achieving superior performance with fewer labels acquired compared to conventional methods. Our proposal comprises an easy-to-implement practical solution for optimising data acquisition in resource-constrained environments.

This study investigates the application of the Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LGBM) model for both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting of Bitcoin realized volatility. Utilizing a comprehensive set of 69 predictors -- encompassing market, behavioral, and macroeconomic indicators -- we evaluate the performance of LGBM-based models and compare them with both econometric and machine learning baselines. For probabilistic forecasting, we explore two quantile-based approaches: direct quantile regression using the pinball loss function, and a residual simulation method that transforms point forecasts into predictive distributions. To identify the main drivers of volatility, we employ gain-based and permutation feature importance techniques, consistently highlighting the significance of trading volume, lagged volatility measures, investor attention, and market capitalization. The results demonstrate that LGBM models effectively capture the nonlinear and high-variance characteristics of cryptocurrency markets while providing interpretable insights into the underlying volatility dynamics.