target station
Resolution-Aware Retrieval Augmented Zero-Shot Forecasting
Deznabi, Iman, Kumar, Peeyush, Fiterau, Madalina
Zero-shot forecasting aims to predict outcomes for previously unseen conditions without direct historical data, posing a significant challenge for traditional forecasting methods. We introduce a Resolution-Aware Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhances predictive accuracy by leveraging spatial correlations and temporal frequency characteristics. By decomposing signals into different frequency components, our model employs resolution-aware retrieval, where lower-frequency components rely on broader spatial context, while higher-frequency components focus on local influences. This allows the model to dynamically retrieve relevant data and adapt to new locations with minimal historical context. Applied to microclimate forecasting, our model significantly outperforms traditional forecasting methods, numerical weather prediction models, and modern foundation time series models, achieving 71% lower MSE than HRRR and 34% lower MSE than Chronos on the ERA5 dataset. Our results highlight the effectiveness of retrieval-augmented and resolution-aware strategies, offering a scalable and data-efficient solution for zero-shot forecasting in microclimate modeling and beyond.
Zero-shot Microclimate Prediction with Deep Learning
Deznabi, Iman, Kumar, Peeyush, Fiterau, Madalina
Weather station data is a valuable resource for climate prediction, however, its reliability can be limited in remote locations. To compound the issue, making local predictions often relies on sensor data that may not be accessible for a new, previously unmonitored location. In response to these challenges, we propose a novel zero-shot learning approach designed to forecast various climate measurements at new and unmonitored locations. Our method surpasses conventional weather forecasting techniques in predicting microclimate variables by leveraging knowledge extracted from other geographic locations.
Meta-learning Based Short-Term Passenger Flow Prediction for Newly-Operated Urban Rail Transit Stations
Han, Kuo, Zhang, Jinlei, Zhu, Chunqi, Yang, Lixing, Huang, Xiaoyu, Li, Songsong
Accurate short-term passenger flow prediction in urban rail transit stations has great benefits for reasonably allocating resources, easing congestion, and reducing operational risks. However, compared with data-rich stations, the passenger flow prediction in newly-operated stations is limited by passenger flow data volume, which would reduce the prediction accuracy and increase the difficulty for station management and operation. Hence, how accurately predicting passenger flow in newly-operated stations with limited data is an urgent problem to be solved. Existing passenger flow prediction approaches generally depend on sufficient data, which might be unsuitable for newly-operated stations. Therefore, we propose a meta-learning method named Meta Long Short-Term Memory Network (Meta-LSTM) to predict the passenger flow in newly-operated stations. The Meta-LSTM is to construct a framework that increases the generalization ability of long short-term memory network (LSTM) to various passenger flow characteristics by learning passenger flow characteristics from multiple data-rich stations and then applying the learned parameter to data-scarce stations by parameter initialization. The Meta-LSTM is applied to the subway network of Nanning, Hangzhou, and Beijing, China. The experiments on three real-world subway networks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed Meta-LSTM over several competitive baseline models. Results also show that our proposed Meta-LSTM has a good generalization ability to various passenger flow characteristics, which can provide a reference for passenger flow prediction in the stations with limited data.
Wind speed prediction using a hybrid model of the multi-layer perceptron and whale optimization algorithm
Samadianfard, Saeed, Hashemi, Sajjad, Kargar, Katayoun, Izadyar, Mojtaba, Mostafaeipour, Ali, Mosavi, Amir, Nabipour, Narjes, Shamshirband, Shahaboddin
Wind power as a renewable source of energy, has numerous economic, environmental and social benefits. In order to enhance and control renewable wind power, it is vital to utilize models that predict wind speed with high accuracy. Due to neglecting of requirement and significance of data preprocessing and disregarding the inadequacy of using a single predicting model, many traditional models have poor performance in wind speed prediction. In the current study, for predicting wind speed at target stations in the north of Iran, the combination of a multi-layer perceptron model (MLP) with the Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) used to build new method (MLP-WOA) with a limited set of data (2004-2014). Then, the MLP-WOA model was utilized at each of the ten target stations, with the nine stations for training and tenth station for testing (namely: Astara, Bandar-E-Anzali, Rasht, Manjil, Jirandeh, Talesh, Kiyashahr, Lahijan, Masuleh, and Deylaman) to increase the accuracy of the subsequent hybrid model. The capability of the hybrid model in wind speed forecasting at each target station was compared with the MLP model without the WOA optimizer. To determine definite results, numerous statistical performances were utilized. For all ten target stations, the MLP-WOA model had precise outcomes than the standalone MLP model. The hybrid model had acceptable performances with lower amounts of the RMSE, SI and RE parameters and higher values of NSE, WI, and KGE parameters. It was concluded that the WOA optimization algorithm can improve the prediction accuracy of MLP model and may be recommended for accurate wind speed prediction.
Low-dimensional Models in Spatio-Temporal Wind Speed Forecasting
Sanandaji, Borhan M., Tascikaraoglu, Akin, Poolla, Kameshwar, Varaiya, Pravin
Integrating wind power into the grid is challenging because of its random nature. Integration is facilitated with accurate short-term forecasts of wind power. The paper presents a spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting algorithm that incorporates the time series data of a target station and data of surrounding stations. Inspired by Compressive Sensing (CS) and structured-sparse recovery algorithms, we claim that there usually exists an intrinsic low-dimensional structure governing a large collection of stations that should be exploited. We cast the forecasting problem as recovery of a block-sparse signal $\boldsymbol{x}$ from a set of linear equations $\boldsymbol{b} = A\boldsymbol{x}$ for which we propose novel structure-sparse recovery algorithms. Results of a case study in the east coast show that the proposed Compressive Spatio-Temporal Wind Speed Forecasting (CST-WSF) algorithm significantly improves the short-term forecasts compared to a set of widely-used benchmark models.