Understanding how a prediction model will perform in a new environment before deployment is essential to preventing harm when algorithms inform decision-making. Two common sources of model performance degradation are (i) covariate shift, where the target covariate distribution differs from the source, and (ii) selective labels, where the observability of outcomes depends on historical decisions. We study pre-deployment model evaluation under the joint presence of covariate shift and labeling of outcomes selectively based on observed features. In particular, we present a double machine learning procedure for estimating the target risk of an arbitrary black-box prediction model under a general loss function. We show identification of this estimand under standard assumptions and derive a bias-corrected estimator based on the influence function of the target risk. Finally, we evaluate our estimator through experiments using the eICU electronic health records database, showing that it tracks the true target risk more accurately than methods that address either selective labels or covariate shift alone, as well as baselines that combine standard plug-in approaches.

Various deep generative models have been proposed to estimate potential outcomes distributions from observational data. However, none of them have the favorable theoretical property of general Neyman-orthogonality and, associated with it, quasi-oracle efficiency and double robustness. In this paper, we introduce a general suite of generative Neyman-orthogonal (doubly-robust) learners that estimate the conditional distributions of potential outcomes. Our proposed GDR-learners are flexible and can be instantiated with many state-of-the-art deep generative models. In particular, we develop GDR-learners based on (a) conditional normalizing flows (which we call GDR-CNFs), (b) conditional generative adversarial networks (GDR-CGANs), (c) conditional variational autoencoders (GDR-CVAEs), and (d) conditional diffusion models (GDR-CDMs). Unlike the existing methods, our GDR-learners possess the properties of quasi-oracle efficiency and rate double robustness, and are thus asymptotically optimal. In a series of (semi-)synthetic experiments, we demonstrate that our GDR-learners are very effective and outperform the existing methods in estimating the conditional distributions of potential outcomes.

Representation learning is widely used for estimating causal quantities (e.g., the conditional average treatment effect) from observational data. While existing representation learning methods have the benefit of allowing for end-to-end learning, they do not have favorable theoretical properties of Neyman-orthogonal learners, such as double robustness and quasi-oracle efficiency. Also, such representation learning methods often employ additional constraints, like balancing, which may even lead to inconsistent estimation. In this paper, we propose a novel class of Neyman-orthogonal learners for causal quantities defined at the representation level, which we call OR-learners. Our OR-learners have several practical advantages: they allow for consistent estimation of causal quantities based on any learned representation, while offering favorable theoretical properties including double robustness and quasi-oracle efficiency. In multiple experiments, we show that, under certain regularity conditions, our OR-learners improve existing representation learning methods and achieve state-of-the-art performance. To the best of our knowledge, our OR-learners are the first work to offer a unified framework of representation learning methods and Neyman-orthogonal learners for causal quantities estimation.

Estimating causal quantities from observational data is crucial for understanding the safety and effectiveness of medical treatments. However, to make reliable inferences, medical practitioners require not only estimating averaged causal quantities, such as the conditional average treatment effect, but also understanding the randomness of the treatment effect as a random variable. This randomness is referred to as aleatoric uncertainty and is necessary for understanding the probability of benefit from treatment or quantiles of the treatment effect. Yet, the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect has received surprisingly little attention in the causal machine learning community. To fill this gap, we aim to quantify the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect at the covariate-conditional level, namely, the conditional distribution of the treatment effect (CDTE). Unlike average causal quantities, the CDTE is not point identifiable without strong additional assumptions. As a remedy, we employ partial identification to obtain sharp bounds on the CDTE and thereby quantify the aleatoric uncertainty of the treatment effect. We then develop a novel, orthogonal learner for the bounds on the CDTE, which we call AU-learner. We further show that our AU-learner has several strengths in that it satisfies Neyman-orthogonality and, thus, quasi-oracle efficiency. Finally, we propose a fully-parametric deep learning instantiation of our AU-learner.

Practitioners often deploy a learned prediction model in a new environment where the joint distribution of covariate and response has shifted. In observational data, the distribution shift is often driven by unobserved confounding factors lurking in the environment, with the underlying mechanism unknown. Confounding can obfuscate the definition of the best prediction model (concept shift) and shift covariates to domains yet unseen (covariate shift). Therefore, a model maximizing prediction accuracy in the source environment could suffer a significant accuracy drop in the target environment. This motivates us to study the domain adaptation problem with observational data: given labeled covariate and response pairs from a source environment, and unlabeled covariates from a target environment, how can one predict the missing target response reliably? We root the adaptation problem in a linear structural causal model to address endogeneity and unobserved confounding. We study the necessity and benefit of leveraging exogenous, invariant covariate representations to cure concept shifts and improve target prediction. This further motivates a new representation learning method for adaptation that optimizes for a lower-dimensional linear subspace and, subsequently, a prediction model confined to that subspace. The procedure operates on a non-convex objective-that naturally interpolates between predictability and stability/invariance-constrained on the Stiefel manifold. We study the optimization landscape and prove that, when the regularization is sufficient, nearly all local optima align with an invariant linear subspace resilient to both concept and covariate shift. In terms of predictability, we show a model that uses the learned lower-dimensional subspace can incur a nearly ideal gap between target and source risk. Three real-world data sets are investigated to validate our method and theory.

Domain adaptation (DA) is a statistical learning problem that arises when the distribution of the source data used to train a model differs from that of the target data used to evaluate the model. While many DA algorithms have demonstrated considerable empirical success, blindly applying these algorithms can often lead to worse performance on new datasets. To address this, it is crucial to clarify the assumptions under which a DA algorithm has good target performance. In this work, we focus on the assumption of the presence of conditionally invariant components (CICs), which are relevant for prediction and remain conditionally invariant across the source and target data. We demonstrate that CICs, which can be estimated through conditional invariant penalty (CIP), play three prominent roles in providing target risk guarantees in DA. First, we propose a new algorithm based on CICs, importance-weighted conditional invariant penalty (IW-CIP), which has target risk guarantees beyond simple settings such as covariate shift and label shift. Second, we show that CICs help identify large discrepancies between source and target risks of other DA algorithms. Finally, we demonstrate that incorporating CICs into the domain invariant projection (DIP) algorithm can address its failure scenario caused by label-flipping features. We support our new algorithms and theoretical findings via numerical experiments on synthetic data, MNIST, CelebA, and Camelyon17 datasets.

Deploying deep visual models can lead to performance drops due to the discrepancies between source and target distributions. Several approaches leverage labeled source data to estimate target domain accuracy, but accessing labeled source data is often prohibitively difficult due to data confidentiality or resource limitations on serving devices. Our work proposes a new framework to estimate model accuracy on unlabeled target data without access to source data. We investigate the feasibility of using pseudo-labels for accuracy estimation and evolve this idea into adopting recent advances in source-free domain adaptation algorithms. Our approach measures the disagreement rate between the source hypothesis and the target pseudo-labeling function, adapted from the source hypothesis. We mitigate the impact of erroneous pseudo-labels that may arise due to a high ideal joint hypothesis risk by employing adaptive adversarial perturbation on the input of the target model. Our proposed source-free framework effectively addresses the challenging distribution shift scenarios and outperforms existing methods requiring source data and labels for training.

Unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) refers to a domain adaptation framework in which a learning model is trained based on the labeled samples on the source domain and unlabelled ones in the target domain. The dominant existing methods in the field that rely on the classical covariate shift assumption to learn domain-invariant feature representation have yielded suboptimal performance under the label distribution shift between source and target domains. In this paper, we propose a novel conditional adversarial support alignment (CASA) whose aim is to minimize the conditional symmetric support divergence between the source's and target domain's feature representation distributions, aiming at a more helpful representation for the classification task. We also introduce a novel theoretical target risk bound, which justifies the merits of aligning the supports of conditional feature distributions compared to the existing marginal support alignment approach in the UDA settings. We then provide a complete training process for learning in which the objective optimization functions are precisely based on the proposed target risk bound. Our empirical results demonstrate that CASA outperforms other state-of-the-art methods on different UDA benchmark tasks under label shift conditions.

The most recent multi-source covariate shift algorithm is an efficient hyperparameter optimization algorithm for missing target output. In this paper, we extend this algorithm to the framework of federated learning. For data islands in federated learning and covariate shift adaptation, we propose the federated domain adaptation estimate of the target risk which is asymptotically unbiased with a desirable asymptotic variance property. We construct a weighted model for the target task and propose the federated covariate shift adaptation algorithm which works preferably in our setting. The efficacy of our method is justified both theoretically and empirically.

When deployed in the real world, machine learning models inevitably encounter changes in the data distribution, and certain -- but not all -- distribution shifts could result in significant performance degradation. In practice, it may make sense to ignore benign shifts, under which the performance of a deployed model does not degrade substantially, making interventions by a human expert (or model retraining) unnecessary. While several works have developed tests for distribution shifts, these typically either use non-sequential methods, or detect arbitrary shifts (benign or harmful), or both. We argue that a sensible method for firing off a warning has to both (a) detect harmful shifts while ignoring benign ones, and (b) allow continuous monitoring of model performance without increasing the false alarm rate. In this work, we design simple sequential tools for testing if the difference between source (training) and target (test) distributions leads to a significant drop in a risk function of interest, like accuracy or calibration. Recent advances in constructing time-uniform confidence sequences allow efficient aggregation of statistical evidence accumulated during the tracking process. The designed framework is applicable in settings where (some) true labels are revealed after the prediction is performed, or when batches of labels become available in a delayed fashion. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed framework through an extensive empirical study on a collection of simulated and real datasets.