Predictions and generations from large language models are increasingly being explored as an aid in limited data regimes, such as in computational social science and human subjects research. While prior technical work has mainly explored the potential to use model-predicted labels for unlabeled data in a principled manner, there is increasing interest in using large language models to generate entirely new synthetic samples (e.g., synthetic simulations), such as in responses to surveys. However, it remains unclear by what means practitioners can combine such data with real data and yet produce statistically valid conclusions upon them. In this paper, we introduce a new estimator based on generalized method of moments, providing a hyperparameter-free solution with strong theoretical guarantees to address this challenge. Intriguingly, we find that interactions between the moment residuals of synthetic data and those of real data (i.e., when they are predictive of each other) can greatly improve estimates of the target parameter.

Selecting artificial intelligence (AI) models, such as large language models (LLMs), from multiple candidates requires accurate performance estimation. This is ideally achieved through empirical evaluations involving abundant real-world data. However, such evaluations are costly and impractical at scale. To address this challenge, autoevaluation methods leverage synthetic data produced by automated evaluators, such as LLMs-as-judges, reducing variance but potentially introducing bias. Recent approaches have employed semi-supervised prediction-powered inference (PPI) to correct for the bias of autoevaluators. However, the use of autoevaluators may lead in practice to a degradation in sample efficiency compared to conventional methods using only real-world data. In this paper, we propose R-AutoEval+, a novel framework that provides finite-sample reliability guarantees on the model evaluation, while also ensuring an enhanced (or at least no worse) sample efficiency compared to conventional methods. The key innovation of R-AutoEval+ is an adaptive construction of the model evaluation variable, which dynamically tunes its reliance on synthetic data, reverting to conventional methods when the autoevaluator is insufficiently accurate. Experiments on the use of LLMs-as-judges for the optimization of quantization settings for the weights of an LLM, for prompt design in LLMs, and for test-time reasoning budget allocation in LLMs confirm the reliability and efficiency of R-AutoEval+.

Modern foundation models often undergo iterative "bootstrapping" in their posttraining phase: a model generates synthetic data, an external verifier filters out low-quality samples, and the high-quality subset is used for further fine-tuning. Over multiple iterations, the model performance improves, raising a crucial question: How should the total budget for generation and training be allocated across iterations to maximize final performance? In this work, we develop a theoretical framework for analyzing budget allocation strategies. Specifically, we show that constant policies fail to converge with high probability, while increasing policies-- particularly exponential growth policies--exhibit significant theoretical advantages. Experiments on image denoising with diffusion probabilistic models and math reasoning with large language models show that both exponential and polynomial growth policies consistently outperform constant policies, with exponential policies often providing more stable performance.

Synthetic data refers to artificial samples generated by models. While it has been validated to significantly enhance the performance of large language models (LLMs) during training and has been widely adopted in LLM development, potential security risks it may introduce remain uninvestigated. This paper systematically evaluates the resilience of synthetic-data-integrated training paradigm for LLMs against mainstream poisoning and backdoor attacks. We reveal that such a paradigm exhibits strong resistance to existing attacks, primarily thanks to the different distribution patterns between poisoning data and queries used to generate synthetic samples. To enhance the effectiveness of these attacks and further investigate the security risks introduced by synthetic data, we introduce a novel and universal attack framework, namely, Virus Infection Attack (VIA), which enables the propagation of current attacks through synthetic data even under purely clean queries. Inspired by the principles of virus design in cybersecurity, VIA conceals the poisoning payload within a protective "shell" and strategically searches for optimal hijacking points in benign samples to maximize the likelihood of generating malicious content. Extensive experiments on both data poisoning and backdoor attacks show that VIA significantly increases the presence of poisoning content in synthetic data and correspondingly raises the attack success rate (ASR) on downstream models to levels comparable to those observed in the poisoned upstream models.

We present AdaPrivate-TS, a differentially private contextual bandit algorithm that combines Thompson Sampling with batched zCDP composition. Our key insight is that differential privacy noise inflates the posterior covariance in a structured way: adding Gaussian noise $N(0,σ^2 I)$ to $b$ yields sampling covariance $v^2 A^{-1} + σ^2 A^{-2}$, which Thompson Sampling interprets as increased uncertainty rather than pure corruption. Under event-level privacy (protecting individual interactions) with stochastic contexts, we prove that the privacy cost is only $O(\sqrt{d}\,\log T/\sqrtρ)$, logarithmic in $T$, because parallel composition amortizes noise across batches. Additionally, we explore privacy amplification via Poisson subsampling, which can reduce effective noise at stringent privacy budgets. Experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate: (1) AdaPrivate-TS achieves 93-99% of non-private performance at $\varepsilon \in [0.5, 5]$, outperforming UCB by 0.5-3.7% and up to 18% with tuned adaptive exploration at extreme $\varepsilon$; (2) privacy amplification provides additional 2-5% gains at low $\varepsilon$; (3) on MovieLens and Jester, AdaPrivate-TS achieves the best overall performance among event-level baselines, dominating at $\varepsilon \geq 2$; (4) under DP-SVD private features, TS's advantage over UCB grows to +11%, confirming noise-as-uncertainty is not limited to reward privacy. We provide rigorous proofs for privacy guarantees under interactive zCDP composition and comprehensive evaluation including convergence curves, 12-seed CIs, and DP-SVD feature ablation.

Synthetic tabular data enables microdata sharing in regulated domains, yet deploying continuous-time generative models requires balancing analytical utility, disclosure risk, and computational cost. Latent-space flow models are flexible, but theoretical equivalences across learning targets, probability paths, and sampling dynamics can translate into different behaviour under finite-step integration and explicit compute budgets. We present an empirical study of tabular latent flow models across seven datasets, evaluating velocity, score, noise, and posterior matching objectives under optimal transport (OT) and variance-preserving (VP) paths, ODE and SDE sampling, and varying integration budgets. Our contributions are threefold: (1) we show that the learning target largely determines the utility-risk operating regime, with velocity and posterior matching tending to yield higher utility, while score and noise matching tend to achieve lower disclosure risk; (2) we demonstrate that configuration and sampling choices shift performance, with midpoint often improving distributional fidelity and OT paths often tolerating earlier stopping than VP, enabling compute savings under fixed budgets or risk thresholds; and (3) we distil these findings into actionable defaults and practical configuration guidance to support pre-release model selection under disclosure risk and resource constraints. The code implementation and supplementary materials can be accessed in https://github.com/rulnasution/tabular-latent-flow/.

Private Evolution (PE) is a promising training-free method for differentially private (DP) synthetic data generation. While it achieves strong performance in some domains (e.g., images and text), its behavior in others (e.g., tabular data) is less consistent. To date, the only theoretical analysis of the convergence of PE depends on unrealistic assumptions about both the algorithm's behavior and the structure of the sensitive dataset. In this work, we develop a new theoretical framework to understand PE's practical behavior and identify sufficient conditions for its convergence. For d-dimensional sensitive datasets with n data points from a convex and compact domain, we prove that under the right hyperparameter settings and given access to the Gaussian variation API proposed in [33], PE produces an (ε,δ)-DP synthetic dataset with expected 1-Wasserstein distance O(d(nε) 1/d) from the original; this establishes worst-case convergence of the algorithm as n . Our analysis extends to general Banach spaces as well. We also connect PE to the Private Signed Measure Mechanism, a method for DP synthetic data generation that has thus far not seen much practical adoption. We demonstrate the practical relevance of our theoretical findings in experiments.

Recent advances in multi-modal models have demonstrated strong performance in tasks such as image generation and reasoning. However, applying these models to the fire domain remains challenging due to the lack of publicly available datasets with high-quality fire domain annotations. To address this gap, we introduce DetectiumFire, a large-scale, multi-modal dataset comprising of 22.5k high-resolution fire-related images and 2.5k real-world fire-related videos covering a wide range of fire types, environments, and risk levels. The data are annotated with both traditional computer vision labels (e.g., bounding boxes) and detailed textual prompts describing the scene, enabling applications such as synthetic data generation and fire risk reasoning. DetectiumFire offers clear advantages over existing benchmarks in scale, diversity, and data quality, significantly reducing redundancy and enhancing coverage of real-world scenarios. We validate the utility of DetectiumFire across multiple tasks, including object detection, diffusion-based image generation, and vision-language reasoning. Our results highlight the potential of this dataset to advance fire-related research and support the development of intelligent safety systems. We release DetectiumFire to promote broader exploration of fire understanding in the AI community.

Conditional image generative models hold considerable promise to produce infinite amounts of synthetic training data. Yet, recent progress in generation quality has come at the expense of generation diversity, limiting the utility of these models as a source of synthetic training data. Although guidance-based approaches have been introduced to improve the utility of generated data by focusing on quality or diversity, the (implicit or explicit) utility functions oftentimes disregard the potential distribution shift between synthetic and real data. In this work, we introduce Chamfer Guidance: a training-free guidance approach which leverages a handful of real exemplar images to characterize the quality and diversity of synthetic data. We show that by leveraging the proposed Chamfer Guidance, we can boost the diversity of the generations w.r.t. a dataset of real images while maintaining or improving the generation quality on ImageNet-1k and standard geo-diversity benchmarks. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art few-shot performance with as little as 2 exemplar real images, obtaining 96.4% in terms of precision, and 86.4% in terms of distributional coverage, which increase to 97.5% and 92.7%, respectively, when using 32 real images.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distributionfree, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data-- e.g., from a generative model--to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPIprovably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPIyields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification--augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images--and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.