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 supply and demand


AI is changing the grid. Could it help more than it harms?

MIT Technology Review

AI is changing the grid. Could it help more than it harms? Massive data centers are pushing energy demand higher. Some people claim that AI will be a net benefit for the grid. The rising popularity of AI is driving an increase in electricity demand so significant it has the potential to reshape our grid. Energy consumption by data centers has gone up by 80% from 2020 to 2025 and is likely to keep growing.


Unifying Economic and Language Models for Enhanced Sentiment Analysis of the Oil Market

Kaplan, Himmet, Mundani, Ralf-Peter, Rölke, Heiko, Weichselbraun, Albert, Tschudy, Martin

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Crude oil, a critical component of the global economy, has its prices influenced by various factors such as economic trends, political events, and natural disasters. Traditional prediction methods based on historical data have their limits in forecasting, but recent advancements in natural language processing bring new possibilities for event-based analysis. In particular, Language Models (LM) and their advancement, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT), have shown potential in classifying vast amounts of natural language. However, these LMs often have difficulty with domain-specific terminology, limiting their effectiveness in the crude oil sector. Addressing this gap, we introduce CrudeBERT, a fine-tuned LM specifically for the crude oil market. The results indicate that CrudeBERT's sentiment scores align more closely with the WTI Futures curve and significantly enhance price predictions, underscoring the crucial role of integrating economic principles into LMs.


YUI: Day-ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Using Invariance Simplified Supply and Demand Curve

Wang, Linian, Yu, Anlan, Liu, Jianghong, Zhang, Huibing, Wang, Leye

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In day-ahead electricity market, it is crucial for all market participants to have access to reliable and accurate price forecasts for their decision-making processes. Forecasting methods currently utilized in industrial applications frequently neglect the underlying mechanisms of price formation, while economic research from the perspective of supply and demand have stringent data collection requirements, making it difficult to apply in actual markets. Observing the characteristics of the day-ahead electricity market, we introduce two invariance assumptions to simplify the modeling of supply and demand curves. Upon incorporating the time invariance assumption, we can forecast the supply curve using the market equilibrium points from multiple time slots in the recent period. By introducing the price insensitivity assumption, we can approximate the demand curve using a straight line. The point where these two curves intersect provides us with the forecast price. The proposed model, forecasting suppl\textbf{Y} and demand cUrve simplified by Invariance, termed as YUI, is more efficient than state-of-the-art methods. Our experiment results in Shanxi day-ahead electricity market show that compared with existing methods, YUI can reduce forecast error by 13.8\% in MAE and 28.7\% in sMAPE. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/wangln19/YUI.


A Cross-View Hierarchical Graph Learning Hypernetwork for Skill Demand-Supply Joint Prediction

Chao, Wenshuo, Qiu, Zhaopeng, Wu, Likang, Guo, Zhuoning, Zheng, Zhi, Zhu, Hengshu, Liu, Hao

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapidly changing landscape of technology and industries leads to dynamic skill requirements, making it crucial for employees and employers to anticipate such shifts to maintain a competitive edge in the labor market. Existing efforts in this area either rely on domain-expert knowledge or regarding skill evolution as a simplified time series forecasting problem. However, both approaches overlook the sophisticated relationships among different skills and the inner-connection between skill demand and supply variations. In this paper, we propose a Cross-view Hierarchical Graph learning Hypernetwork (CHGH) framework for joint skill demand-supply prediction. Specifically, CHGH is an encoder-decoder network consisting of i) a cross-view graph encoder to capture the interconnection between skill demand and supply, ii) a hierarchical graph encoder to model the co-evolution of skills from a cluster-wise perspective, and iii) a conditional hyper-decoder to jointly predict demand and supply variations by incorporating historical demand-supply gaps. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed framework compared to seven baselines and the effectiveness of the three modules.


Modeling Supply and Demand in Public Transportation Systems

Bihler, Miranda, Nelson, Hala, Okey, Erin, Rivas, Noe Reyes, Webb, John, White, Anna

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose two neural network based and data-driven supply and demand models to analyze the efficiency, identify service gaps, and determine the significant predictors of demand, in the bus system for the Department of Public Transportation (HDPT) in Harrisonburg City, Virginia, which is the home to James Madison University (JMU). The supply and demand models, one temporal and one spatial, take many variables into account, including the demographic data surrounding the bus stops, the metrics that the HDPT reports to the federal government, and the drastic change in population between when JMU is on or off session. These direct and data-driven models to quantify supply and demand and identify service gaps can generalize to other cities' bus systems. Keywords-- transportation systems, bus systems, public transportation, direct ridership models, data driven models, mathematical modeling, neural networks, machine learning, supply models, demand models, machine learning, service gaps, social vulnerability, public transportation access, GIS data, data science, data quality.


CrudeBERT: Applying Economic Theory towards fine-tuning Transformer-based Sentiment Analysis Models to the Crude Oil Market

Kaplan, Himmet, Mundani, Ralf-Peter, Rölke, Heiko, Weichselbraun, Albert

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Predicting market movements based on the sentiment of news media has a long tradition in data analysis. With advances in natural language processing, transformer architectures have emerged that enable contextually aware sentiment classification. Nevertheless, current methods built for the general financial market such as FinBERT cannot distinguish asset-specific value-driving factors. This paper addresses this shortcoming by presenting a method that identifies and classifies events that impact supply and demand in the crude oil markets within a large corpus of relevant news headlines. We then introduce CrudeBERT, a new sentiment analysis model that draws upon these events to contextualize and fine-tune FinBERT, thereby yielding improved sentiment classifications for headlines related to the crude oil futures market. An extensive evaluation demonstrates that CrudeBERT outperforms proprietary and open-source solutions in the domain of crude oil.


Generative artificial intelligence: Rise of the machines – GIS Reports

#artificialintelligence

The latest technological advances suggest that the "AI revolution" will deliver socioeconomic turmoil, massive wealth redistribution – or both. Recent months have seen a lot of conversation about the dangers and opportunities presented by the latest advances in artificial intelligence (AI) technology. Most of this has been stirred up by ChatGPT, a generative AI chatbot created by the Microsoft-backed OpenAI and launched to the public in late 2022. The software's impressive capabilities – formulating articulate, (usually) accurate responses to complex questions, and creating text often indistinguishable from that of a human writer – have reignited debates about "the robots taking over." Much of the public appears divided into two camps: the technophiles, excited about "upgrading" our already symbiotic relationship with computers; and the modern-day Luddites, foes of progress who fear these new machines just as their predecessors feared textile mechanization.


The Rise of Automation – How It Is Impacting the Job Market – Towards AI

#artificialintelligence

Originally published on Towards AI. Machines replacing humans in the workplace have been a constant source of fear since the Industrial Revolution, and it has become a more prominent topic of discussion in recent decades with the rise of automation. Automation has been around for centuries, and its use has increased significantly in recent years across many industries, including manufacturing, transportation, healthcare, and retail. The implementation of automation can bring many benefits, such as increased productivity, efficiency, and improved quality and safety. However, it also poses challenges and potential negative impacts on the economy and job market.


Advantage Of Machine Learning In Ecommerce

#artificialintelligence

Ecommerce (electronic commerce) refers to all online activity that involves the buying and selling of products and services. In other words, ecommerce is a process for conducting transactions online. While there are many reasons to start an ecommerce business, there are some amazing benefits you can expect once you get your business off the ground. Ecommerce provides the best in convenience and accessibility. Customers can find exactly what they need, at any time, directly from their desktop or mobile device.


Artificial Intelligence at Toyota

#artificialintelligence

Ryan Owen holds an MBA from the University of South Carolina, and has rich experience in financial services, having worked with Liberty Mutual, Sun Life, and other financial firms. Ryan writes and edits AI industry trends and use-cases for Emerj's editorial and client content. Toyota came to the United States in the late 1950s, setting up its US headquarters in California. A decade later, the Japanese automaker became the third-largest import brand in the United States. In 1968, Toyota introduced the Corolla, now the world's best-selling passenger car.