Stock price prediction is challenging due to market volatility and its sensitivity to real-time events. While large language models (LLMs) offer new avenues for text-based forecasting, their application in finance is hindered by noisy news data and the lack of explicit answers in text. General-purpose memory architectures struggle to identify the key drivers of price movements. To address this, we propose StockMem, an event-reflection dual-layer memory framework. It structures news into events and mines them along two dimensions: horizontal consolidation integrates daily events, while longitudinal tracking captures event evolution to extract incremental information reflecting market expectation discrepancies. This builds a temporal event knowledge base. By analyzing event-price dynamics, the framework further forms a reflection knowledge base of causal experiences. For prediction, it retrieves analogous historical scenarios and reasons with current events, incremental data, and past experiences. Experiments show StockMem outperforms existing memory architectures and provides superior, explainable reasoning by tracing the information chain affecting prices, enhancing decision transparency in financial forecasting.

The intricate dynamics of stock markets have led to extensive research on models that are able to effectively explain their inherent complexities. This study leverages the econometrics literature to explore the dynamic factor model as an interpretable model with sufficient predictive capabilities for capturing essential market phenomena. Although the model has been extensively applied for predictive purposes, this study focuses on analyzing the extracted loadings and common factors as an alternative framework for understanding stock price dynamics. The results reveal novel insights into traditional market theories when applied to the Philippine Stock Exchange using the Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation, with subsequent validation against the capital asset pricing model. Notably, a one-factor model extracts a common factor representing systematic or market dynamics similar to the composite index, whereas a two-factor model extracts common factors representing market trends and volatility. Furthermore, an application of the model for nowcasting the growth rates of the Philippine gross domestic product highlights the potential of the extracted common factors as viable real-time market indicators, yielding over a 34% decrease in the out-of-sample prediction error. Overall, the results underscore the value of dynamic factor analysis in gaining a deeper understanding of market price movement dynamics.

Accurately predicting short-term stock price movement remains a challenging task due to the market's inherent volatility and sensitivity to investor sentiment. This paper discusses a deep learning framework that integrates emotion features extracted from tweet data with historical stock price information to forecast significant price changes on the following day. We utilize Meta's Llama 3.1-8B-Instruct model to preprocess tweet data, thereby enhancing the quality of emotion features derived from three emotion analysis approaches: a transformer-based DistilRoBERTa classifier from the Hugging Face library and two lexicon-based methods using National Research Council Canada (NRC) resources. These features are combined with previous-day stock price data to train a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. Experimental results on TSLA, AAPL, and AMZN stocks show that all three emotion analysis methods improve the average accuracy for predicting significant price movements, compared to the baseline model using only historical stock prices, which yields an accuracy of 13.5%. The DistilRoBERTa-based stock prediction model achieves the best performance, with accuracy rising from 23.6% to 38.5% when using LLaMA-enhanced emotion analysis. These results demonstrate that using large language models to preprocess tweet content enhances the effectiveness of emotion analysis which in turn improves the accuracy of predicting significant stock price movements.

Predicting stock market prices following corporate earnings calls remains a significant challenge for investors and researchers alike, requiring innovative approaches that can process diverse information sources. This study investigates the impact of corporate earnings calls on stock prices by introducing a multi-modal predictive model. We leverage textual data from earnings call transcripts, along with images and tables from accompanying presentations, to forecast stock price movements on the trading day immediately following these calls. To facilitate this research, we developed the MiMIC (Multi-Modal Indian Earnings Calls) dataset, encompassing companies representing the Nifty 50, Nifty MidCap 50, and Nifty Small 50 indices. The dataset includes earnings call transcripts, presentations, fundamentals, technical indicators, and subsequent stock prices. We present a multimodal analytical framework that integrates quantitative variables with predictive signals derived from textual and visual modalities, thereby enabling a holistic approach to feature representation and analysis. This multi-modal approach demonstrates the potential for integrating diverse information sources to enhance financial forecasting accuracy. To promote further research in computational economics, we have made the MiMIC dataset publicly available under the CC-NC-SA-4.0 licence. Our work contributes to the growing body of literature on market reactions to corporate communications and highlights the efficacy of multi-modal machine learning techniques in financial analysis.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are widely applied to downstream domains. However, current LLMs for high-stakes domain tasks, such as financial investment and legal QA, typically generate brief answers without reasoning processes and explanations. This limits users' confidence in making decisions based on their responses. While original CoT shows promise, it lacks self-correction mechanisms during reasoning. This work introduces Domain$o1$s, which enhances LLMs' reasoning capabilities on domain tasks through supervised fine-tuning and tree search. We construct CoT-stock-2k and CoT-legal-2k datasets for fine-tuning models that activate domain-specific reasoning steps based on their judgment. Additionally, we propose Selective Tree Exploration to spontaneously explore solution spaces and sample optimal reasoning paths to improve performance. We also introduce PROOF-Score, a new metric for evaluating domain models' explainability, complementing traditional accuracy metrics with richer assessment dimensions. Extensive experiments on stock investment recommendation and legal reasoning QA tasks demonstrate Domaino1s's leading performance and explainability. Our code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Domaino1s-006F/.

Financial sentiment analysis is crucial for understanding the influence of news on stock prices. Recently, large language models (LLMs) have been widely adopted for this purpose due to their advanced text analysis capabilities. However, these models often only consider the news content itself, ignoring its dissemination, which hampers accurate prediction of short-term stock movements. Additionally, current methods often lack sufficient contextual data and explicit instructions in their prompts, limiting LLMs' ability to interpret news. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach that enhances LLM-powered sentiment-based stock movement predictions by incorporating news dissemination breadth, contextual data, and explicit instructions. We cluster recent company-related news to assess its reach and influence, enriching prompts with more specific data and precise instructions. This data is used to construct an instruction tuning dataset to fine-tune an LLM for predicting short-term stock price movements. Our experimental results show that our approach improves prediction accuracy by 8\% compared to existing methods.

Recently, deep learning in stock prediction has become an important branch. Image-based methods show potential by capturing complex visual patterns and spatial correlations, offering advantages in interpretability over time series models. However, image-based approaches are more prone to overfitting, hindering robust predictive performance. To improve accuracy, this paper proposes a novel method, named Sequence-based Multi-scale Fusion Regression Convolutional Neural Network (SMSFR-CNN), for predicting stock price movements in the China A-share market. By utilizing CNN to learn sequential features and combining them with image features, we improve the accuracy of stock trend prediction on the A-share market stock dataset. This approach reduces the search space for image features, stabilizes, and accelerates the training process. Extensive comparative experiments on 4,454 A-share stocks show that the model achieves a 61.15% positive predictive value and a 63.37% negative predictive value for the next 5 days, resulting in a total profit of 165.09%.

Forecasting stock market prices remains a complex challenge for traders, analysts, and engineers due to the multitude of factors that influence price movements. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and natural language processing (NLP) have significantly enhanced stock price prediction capabilities. AI's ability to process vast and intricate data sets has led to more sophisticated forecasts. However, achieving consistently high accuracy in stock price forecasting remains elusive. In this paper, we leverage 30 years of historical data from national banks in India, sourced from the National Stock Exchange, to forecast stock prices. Our approach utilizes state-of-the-art deep learning models, including multivariate multi-step Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Facebook Prophet with LightGBM optimized through Optuna, and Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). We further integrate sentiment analysis from tweets and reliable financial sources such as Business Standard and Reuters, acknowledging their crucial influence on stock price fluctuations.

In this paper, we extend financial sentiment analysis~(FSA) to event-level since events usually serve as the subject of the sentiment in financial text. Though extracting events from the financial text may be conducive to accurate sentiment predictions, it has specialized challenges due to the lengthy and discontinuity of events in a financial text. To this end, we reconceptualize the event extraction as a classification task by designing a categorization comprising coarse-grained and fine-grained event categories. Under this setting, we formulate the \textbf{E}vent-Level \textbf{F}inancial \textbf{S}entiment \textbf{A}nalysis~(\textbf{EFSA} for short) task that outputs quintuples consisting of (company, industry, coarse-grained event, fine-grained event, sentiment) from financial text. A large-scale Chinese dataset containing $12,160$ news articles and $13,725$ quintuples is publicized as a brand new testbed for our task. A four-hop Chain-of-Thought LLM-based approach is devised for this task. Systematically investigations are conducted on our dataset, and the empirical results demonstrate the benchmarking scores of existing methods and our proposed method can reach the current state-of-the-art. Our dataset and framework implementation are available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/EFSA-645E

Predicting stock market is vital for investors and policymakers, acting as a barometer of the economic health. We leverage social media data, a potent source of public sentiment, in tandem with macroeconomic indicators as government-compiled statistics, to refine stock market predictions. However, prior research using tweet data for stock market prediction faces three challenges. First, the quality of tweets varies widely. While many are filled with noise and irrelevant details, only a few genuinely mirror the actual market scenario. Second, solely focusing on the historical data of a particular stock without considering its sector can lead to oversight. Stocks within the same industry often exhibit correlated price behaviors. Lastly, simply forecasting the direction of price movement without assessing its magnitude is of limited value, as the extent of the rise or fall truly determines profitability. In this paper, diverging from the conventional methods, we pioneer an ECON. The framework has following advantages: First, ECON has an adept tweets filter that efficiently extracts and decodes the vast array of tweet data. Second, ECON discerns multi-level relationships among stocks, sectors, and macroeconomic factors through a self-aware mechanism in semantic space. Third, ECON offers enhanced accuracy in predicting substantial stock price fluctuations by capitalizing on stock price movement. We showcase the state-of-the-art performance of our proposed model using a dataset, specifically curated by us, for predicting stock market movements and volatility.