stochastic programming
Deep Learning for Sequential Decision Making under Uncertainty: Foundations, Frameworks, and Frontiers
Artificial intelligence (AI) is moving increasingly beyond prediction to support decisions in complex, uncertain, and dynamic environments. This shift creates a natural intersection with operations research and management sciences (OR/MS), which have long offered conceptual and methodological foundations for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. At the same time, recent advances in deep learning, including feedforward neural networks, LSTMs, transformers, and deep reinforcement learning, have expanded the scope of data-driven modeling and opened new possibilities for large-scale decision systems. This tutorial presents an OR/MS-centered perspective on deep learning for sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Its central premise is that deep learning is valuable not as a replacement for optimization, but as a complement to it. Deep learning brings adaptability and scalable approximation, whereas OR/MS provides the structural rigor needed to represent constraints, recourse, and uncertainty. The tutorial reviews key decision-making foundations, connects them to the major neural architectures in modern AI, and discusses leading approaches to integrating learning and optimization. It also highlights emerging impact in domains such as supply chains, healthcare and epidemic response, agriculture, energy, and autonomous operations. More broadly, it frames these developments as part of a wider transition from predictive AI toward decision-capable AI and highlights the role of OR/MS in shaping the next generation of integrated learning--optimization systems.
Neur2SP: Neural Two-Stage Stochastic Programming
Stochastic Programming is a powerful modeling framework for decision-making under uncertainty. In this work, we tackle two-stage stochastic programs (2SPs), the most widely used class of stochastic programming models. Solving 2SPs exactly requires optimizing over an expected value function that is computationally intractable. Having a mixed-integer linear program (MIP) or a nonlinear program (NLP) in the second stage further aggravates the intractability, even when specialized algorithms that exploit problem structure are employed.Finding high-quality (first-stage) solutions -- without leveraging problem structure -- can be crucial in such settings. We develop Neur2SP, a new method that approximates the expected value function via a neural network to obtain a surrogate model that can be solved more efficiently than the traditional extensive formulation approach. Neur2SP makes no assumptions about the problem structure, in particular about the second-stage problem, and can be implemented using an off-the-shelf MIP solver. Our extensive computational experiments on four benchmark 2SP problem classes with different structures (containing MIP and NLP second-stage problems) demonstrate the efficiency (time) and efficacy (solution quality) of Neur2SP. In under 1.66 seconds, Neur2SP finds high-quality solutions across all problems even as the number of scenarios increases, an ideal property that is difficult to have for traditional 2SP solution techniques. Namely, the most generic baseline method typically requires minutes to hours to find solutions of comparable quality.
HGCN2SP: Hierarchical Graph Convolutional Network for Two-Stage Stochastic Programming
Wu, Yang, Zhang, Yifan, Liang, Zhenxing, Cheng, Jian
Two-stage Stochastic Programming (2SP) is a standard framework for modeling decision-making problems under uncertainty. While numerous methods exist, solving such problems with many scenarios remains challenging. Selecting representative scenarios is a practical method for accelerating solutions. However, current approaches typically rely on clustering or Monte Carlo sampling, failing to integrate scenario information deeply and overlooking the significant impact of the scenario order on solving time. To address these issues, we develop HGCN2SP, a novel model with a hierarchical graph designed for 2SP problems, encoding each scenario and modeling their relationships hierarchically. The model is trained in a reinforcement learning paradigm to utilize the feedback of the solver. The policy network is equipped with a hierarchical graph convolutional network for feature encoding and an attention-based decoder for scenario selection in proper order. Evaluation of two classic 2SP problems demonstrates that HGCN2SP provides high-quality decisions in a short computational time. Furthermore, HGCN2SP exhibits remarkable generalization capabilities in handling large-scale instances, even with a substantial number of variables or scenarios that were unseen during the training phase.
MDP modeling for multi-stage stochastic programs
Morton, David P., Dowson, Oscar, Pagnoncelli, Bernardo K.
We study a class of multi-stage stochastic programs, which incorporate modeling features from Markov decision processes (MDPs). This class includes structured MDPs with continuous state and action spaces. We extend policy graphs to include decision-dependent uncertainty for one-step transition probabilities as well as a limited form of statistical learning. We focus on the expressiveness of our modeling approach, illustrating ideas with a series of examples of increasing complexity. As a solution method, we develop new variants of stochastic dual dynamic programming, including approximations to handle non-convexities.
Neur2SP: Neural Two-Stage Stochastic Programming
Stochastic Programming is a powerful modeling framework for decision-making under uncertainty. In this work, we tackle two-stage stochastic programs (2SPs), the most widely used class of stochastic programming models. Solving 2SPs exactly requires optimizing over an expected value function that is computationally intractable. Having a mixed-integer linear program (MIP) or a nonlinear program (NLP) in the second stage further aggravates the intractability, even when specialized algorithms that exploit problem structure are employed.Finding high-quality (first-stage) solutions -- without leveraging problem structure -- can be crucial in such settings. We develop Neur2SP, a new method that approximates the expected value function via a neural network to obtain a surrogate model that can be solved more efficiently than the traditional extensive formulation approach.
Controlling Large Electric Vehicle Charging Stations via User Behavior Modeling and Stochastic Programming
Puech, Alban, Rigaut, Tristan, Templier, William, Tournoud, Maud
This paper introduces an Electric Vehicle Charging Station (EVCS) model that incorporates real-world constraints, such as slot power limitations, contract threshold overruns penalties, or early disconnections of electric vehicles (EVs). We propose a formulation of the problem of EVCS control under uncertainty, and implement two Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming approaches that leverage user-provided information, namely, Model Predictive Control and Two-Stage Stochastic Programming. The model addresses uncertainties in charging session start and end times, as well as in energy demand. A user's behavior model based on a sojourn-time-dependent stochastic process enhances cost reduction while maintaining customer satisfaction. The benefits of the two proposed methods are showcased against two baselines over a 22-day simulation using a real-world dataset. The two-stage approach demonstrates robustness against early disconnections by considering a wider range of uncertainty scenarios for optimization. The algorithm prioritizing user satisfaction over electricity cost achieves a 20% and 36% improvement in two user satisfaction metrics compared to an industry-standard baseline. Additionally, the algorithm striking the best balance between cost and user satisfaction exhibits a mere 3% relative cost increase compared to the theoretically optimal baseline - for which the nonanticipativity constraint is relaxed - while attaining 94% and 84% of the user satisfaction performance in the two used satisfaction metrics.