Ensemble learning is a popular technique to improve the accuracy of machine learning models. It traditionally hinges on the rationale that aggregating multiple weak models can lead to better models with lower variance and hence higher stability, especially for discontinuous base learners. In this paper, we provide a new perspective on ensembling. By selecting the most frequently generated model from the base learner when repeatedly applied to subsamples, we can attain exponentially decaying tails for the excess risk, even if the base learner suffers from slow (i.e., polynomial) decay rates. This tail enhancement power of ensembling applies to base learners that have reasonable predictive power to begin with and is stronger than variance reduction in the sense of exhibiting rate improvement. We demonstrate how our ensemble methods can substantially improve out-of-sample performances in a range of numerical examples involving heavy-tailed data or intrinsically slow rates.

In this paper, we study the conditional stochastic optimization (CSO) problem which covers a variety of applications including portfolio selection, reinforcement learning, robust learning, causal inference, etc. The sample-averaged gradient of the CSO objective is biased due to its nested structure, and therefore requires a high sample complexity for convergence. We introduce a general stochastic extrapolation technique that effectively reduces the bias. We show that for nonconvex smooth objectives, combining this extrapolation with variance reduction techniques can achieve a significantly better sample complexity than the existing bounds. Additionally, we develop new algorithms for the finite-sum variant of the CSO problem that also significantly improve upon existing results. Finally, we believe that our debiasing technique has the potential to be a useful tool for addressing similar challenges in other stochastic optimization problems.

Conditional stochastic optimization has found applications in a wide range of machine learning tasks, such as invariant learning, AUPRC maximization, and meta-learning. As the demand for training models with large-scale distributed data grows in these applications, there is an increasing need for communication-efficient distributed optimization algorithms, such as federated learning algorithms. This paper considers the nonconvex conditional stochastic optimization in federated learning and proposes the first federated conditional stochastic optimization algorithm (FCSG) with a conditional stochastic gradient estimator and a momentumbased algorithm (i.e., FCSG-M). To match the lower bound complexity in the single-machine setting, we design an accelerated algorithm (Acc-FCSG-M) via the variance reduction to achieve the best sample and communication complexity. Compared with the existing optimization analysis for Meta-Learning in FL, federated conditional stochastic optimization considers the sample of tasks.

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