In order to obtain a stochastic model that accounts for the stochastic aspects of the dynamics of a business process, usually the following steps are taken. Given an event log, a process tree is obtained through a process discovery algorithm, i.e., a process tree that is aimed at reproducing, as accurately as possible, the language of the log. The process tree is then transformed into a Petri net that generates the same set of sequences as the process tree. In order to capture the frequency of the sequences in the event log, weights are assigned to the transitions of the Petri net, resulting in a stochastic Petri net with a stochastic language in which each sequence is associated with a probability. In this paper we show that this procedure has unfavorable properties. First, the weights assigned to the transitions of the Petri net have an unclear role in the resulting stochastic language. We will show that a weight can have multiple, ambiguous impact on the probability of the sequences generated by the Petri net. Second, a number of different Petri nets with different number of transitions can correspond to the same process tree. This means that the number of parameters (the number of weights) that determines the stochastic language is not well-defined. In order to avoid these ambiguities, in this paper, we propose to add stochasticity directly to process trees. The result is a new formalism, called stochastic process trees, in which the number of parameters and their role in the associated stochastic language is clear and well-defined.

Capturing stochastic behaviors in business and work processes is essential to quantitatively understand how nondeterminism is resolved when taking decisions within the process. This is of special interest in process mining, where event data tracking the actual execution of the process are related to process models, and can then provide insights on frequencies and probabilities. Variants of stochastic Petri nets provide a natural formal basis for this. However, when capturing processes, such nets need to be labelled with (possibly duplicated) activities, and equipped with silent transitions that model internal, non-logged steps related to the orchestration of the process. At the same time, they have to be analyzed in a finite-trace semantics, matching the fact that each process execution consists of finitely many steps. These two aspects impede the direct application of existing techniques for stochastic Petri nets, calling for a novel characterization that incorporates labels and silent transitions in a finite-trace semantics. In this article, we provide such a characterization starting from generalized stochastic Petri nets and obtaining the framework of labelled stochastic processes (LSPs). On top of this framework, we introduce different key analysis tasks on the traces of LSPs and their probabilities. We show that all such analysis tasks can be solved analytically, in particular reducing them to a single method that combines automata-based techniques to single out the behaviors of interest within a LSP, with techniques based on absorbing Markov chains to reason on their probabilities. Finally, we demonstrate the significance of how our approach in the context of stochastic conformance checking, illustrating practical feasibility through a proof-of-concept implementation and its application to different datasets.

Given an event log as a collection of recorded real-world process traces, process mining aims to automatically construct a process model that is both simple and provides a useful explanation of the traces. Conformance checking techniques are then employed to characterize and quantify commonalities and discrepancies between the log's traces and the candidate models. Recent approaches to conformance checking acknowledge that the elements being compared are inherently stochastic - for example, some traces occur frequently and others infrequently - and seek to incorporate this knowledge in their analyses. Here we present an entropic relevance measure for stochastic conformance checking, computed as the average number of bits required to compress each of the log's traces, based on the structure and information about relative likelihoods provided by the model. The measure penalizes traces from the event log not captured by the model and traces described by the model but absent in the event log, thus addressing both precision and recall quality criteria at the same time. We further show that entropic relevance is computable in time linear in the size of the log, and provide evaluation outcomes that demonstrate the feasibility of using the new approach in industrial settings.

The goal of the present paper is to provide a systematic and comprehensive study of rational stochastic languages over a semiring K \in {Q, Q +, R, R+}. A rational stochastic language is a probability distribution over a free monoid Σ^* which is rational over K, that is which can be generated by a multiplicity automata with parameters in K. We study the relations between the classes of rational stochastic languages S rat K (Σ). We define the notion of residual of a stochastic language and we use it to investigate properties of several subclasses of rational stochastic languages. Lastly, we study the representation of rational stochastic languages by means of multiplicity automata.

Given a finite set of words w1,...,wn independently drawn according to a fixed unknown distribution law P called a stochastic language, an usual goal in Grammatical Inference is to infer an estimate of P in some class of probabilistic models, such as Probabilistic Automata (PA). Here, we study the class of rational stochastic languages, which consists in stochastic languages that can be generated by Multiplicity Automata (MA) and which strictly includes the class of stochastic languages generated by PA. Rational stochastic languages have minimal normal representation which may be very concise, and whose parameters can be efficiently estimated from stochastic samples. We design an efficient inference algorithm DEES which aims at building a minimal normal representation of the target. Despite the fact that no recursively enumerable class of MA computes exactly the set of rational stochastic languages over Q, we show that DEES strongly identifies tis set in the limit. We study the intermediary MA output by DEES and show that they compute rational series which converge absolutely to one and which can be used to provide stochastic languages which closely estimate the target.