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We thank all 3 reviewers for their thoughtful comments

Neural Information Processing Systems

We thank all 3 reviewers for their thoughtful comments. " nearest neighbor theory papers have largely not worried too much about constants......This analysis is " In the evolution of the study of nearest neighbor, early work focused on consistency, and later Y ou are absolutely correct that very few work studies the constant. We argue that this is "a feature, not " The scope of the analysis is very limited to distributed nearest neighbor classification (along with some distributional The latter is a fairly interesting direction, due to its connection with deep learning. " Currently the paper has lots of small typos. Please proofread carefully and revise.. " Thanks for pointing out, and we " Also, I find T able 1 ... How is the risk percentage defined in comparison to the oracle KNN/OWNN? " I'd suggest adding error bars to T able 1 (for example, to denote standard deviations across experimental repeats).


Efficient Evaluation of LLM Performance with Statistical Guarantees

Wu, Skyler, Nair, Yash, Candès, Emmanuel J.

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Exhaustively evaluating many large language models (LLMs) on a large suite of benchmarks is expensive. We cast benchmarking as finite-population inference and, under a fixed query budget, seek tight confidence intervals (CIs) for model accuracy with valid frequentist coverage. We propose Factorized Active Querying (FAQ), which (a) leverages historical information through a Bayesian factor model; (b) adaptively selects questions using a hybrid variance-reduction/active-learning sampling policy; and (c) maintains validity through Proactive Active Inference -- a finite-population extension of active inference (Zrnic & Candès, 2024) that enables direct question selection while preserving coverage. With negligible overhead cost, FAQ delivers up to $5\times$ effective sample size gains over strong baselines on two benchmark suites, across varying historical-data missingness levels: this means that it matches the CI width of uniform sampling while using up to $5\times$ fewer queries. We release our source code and our curated datasets to support reproducible evaluation and future research.


Statistical Guarantees of Distributed Nearest Neighbor Classification

Neural Information Processing Systems

Nearest neighbor is a popular nonparametric method for classification and regression with many appealing properties. In the big data era, the sheer volume and spatial/temporal disparity of big data may prohibit centrally processing and storing the data. This has imposed considerable hurdle for nearest neighbor predictions since the entire training data must be memorized. One effective way to overcome this issue is the distributed learning framework. Through majority voting, the distributed nearest neighbor classifier achieves the same rate of convergence as its oracle version in terms of the regret, up to a multiplicative constant that depends solely on the data dimension. The multiplicative difference can be eliminated by replacing majority voting with the weighted voting scheme. In addition, we provide sharp theoretical upper bounds of the number of subsamples in order for the distributed nearest neighbor classifier to reach the optimal convergence rate. It is interesting to note that the weighted voting scheme allows a larger number of subsamples than the majority voting one. Our findings are supported by numerical studies.


Statistical Guarantees for Variational Autoencoders using PAC-Bayesian Theory

Neural Information Processing Systems

Since their inception, Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have become central in machine learning. Despite their widespread use, numerous questions regarding their theoretical properties remain open. Using PAC-Bayesian theory, this work develops statistical guarantees for VAEs. First, we derive the first PAC-Bayesian bound for posterior distributions conditioned on individual samples from the data-generating distribution. Then, we utilize this result to develop generalization guarantees for the VAE's reconstruction loss, as well as upper bounds on the distance between the input and the regenerated distributions. More importantly, we provide upper bounds on the Wasserstein distance between the input distribution and the distribution defined by the VAE's generative model.


Nonconvex Low-Rank Tensor Completion from Noisy Data

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study a completion problem of broad practical interest: the reconstruction of a low-rank symmetric tensor from highly incomplete and randomly corrupted observations of its entries. While a variety of prior work has been dedicated to this problem, prior algorithms either are computationally too expensive for large-scale applications, or come with sub-optimal statistical guarantees. Focusing on ``incoherent'' and well-conditioned tensors of a constant CP rank, we propose a two-stage nonconvex algorithm --- (vanilla) gradient descent following a rough initialization --- that achieves the best of both worlds. Specifically, the proposed nonconvex algorithm faithfully completes the tensor and retrieves all low-rank tensor factors within nearly linear time, while at the same time enjoying near-optimal statistical guarantees (i.e.~minimal sample complexity and optimal $\ell_2$ and $\ell_{\infty}$ statistical accuracy). The insights conveyed through our analysis of nonconvex optimization might have implications for other tensor estimation problems.


Fair regression via plug-in estimator and recalibration with statistical guarantees

Neural Information Processing Systems

We study the problem of learning an optimal regression function subject to a fairness constraint. It requires that, conditionally on the sensitive feature, the distribution of the function output remains the same. This constraint naturally extends the notion of demographic parity, often used in classification, to the regression setting. We tackle this problem by leveraging on a proxy-discretized version, for which we derive an explicit expression of the optimal fair predictor. This result naturally suggests a two stage approach, in which we first estimate the (unconstrained) regression function from a set of labeled data and then we recalibrate it with another set of unlabeled data. The recalibration step can be efficiently performed via a smooth optimization. We derive rates of convergence of the proposed estimator to the optimal fair predictor both in terms of the risk and fairness constraint. Finally, we present numerical experiments illustrating that the proposed method is often superior or competitive with state-of-the-art methods.


Reliable Statistical Guarantees for Conformal Predictors with Small Datasets

Sánchez-Domínguez, Miguel, Lacasa, Lucas, de Vicente, Javier, Rubio, Gonzalo, Valero, Eusebio

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require a thorough data-agnostic uncertainty quantification analysis before these can be deployed for any safety-critical application. The standard approach for data-agnostic uncertainty quantification is to use conformal prediction (CP), a well-established framework to build uncertainty models with proven statistical guarantees that do not assume any shape for the error distribution of the surrogate model. However, since the classic statistical guarantee offered by CP is given in terms of bounds for the marginal coverage, for small calibration set sizes (which are frequent in realistic surrogate modelling that aims to quantify error at different regions), the potentially strong dispersion of the coverage distribution around its average negatively impacts the relevance of the uncertainty model's statistical guarantee, often obtaining coverages below the expected value, resulting in a less applicable framework. After providing a gentle presentation of uncertainty quantification for surrogate models for machine learning practitioners, in this paper we bridge the gap by proposing a new statistical guarantee that offers probabilistic information for the coverage of a single conformal predictor. We show that the proposed framework converges to the standard solution offered by CP for large calibration set sizes and, unlike the classic guarantee, still offers relevant information about the coverage of a conformal predictor for small data sizes. We validate the methodology in a suite of examples, and implement an open access software solution that can be used alongside common conformal prediction libraries to obtain uncertainty models that fulfil the new guarantee.


Conformal Prediction for Multi-Source Detection on a Network

Jian, Xingchao, Zhang, Purui, Tian, Lan, Ji, Feng, Liang, Wenfei, Tay, Wee Peng, Wen, Bihan, Krahmer, Felix

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Detecting the origin of information or infection spread in networks is a fundamental challenge with applications in misinformation tracking, epidemiology, and beyond. We study the multi-source detection problem: given snapshot observations of node infection status on a graph, estimate the set of source nodes that initiated the propagation. Existing methods either lack statistical guarantees or are limited to specific diffusion models and assumptions. We propose a novel conformal prediction framework that provides statistically valid recall guarantees for source set detection, independent of the underlying diffusion process or data distribution. Our approach introduces principled score functions to quantify the alignment between predicted probabilities and true sources, and leverages a calibration set to construct prediction sets with user-specified recall and coverage levels. The method is applicable to both single- and multi-source scenarios, supports general network diffusion dynamics, and is computationally efficient for large graphs. Empirical results demonstrate that our method achieves rigorous coverage with competitive accuracy, outperforming existing baselines in both reliability and scalability.The code is available online.