We extend the traditional worst-case, minimax analysis of stochastic convex optimization by introducing a localized form of minimax complexity for individual functions. Our main result gives function-specific lower and upper bounds on the number of stochastic subgradient evaluations needed to optimize either the function or its "hardest local alternative" to a given numerical precision. The bounds are expressed in terms of a localized and computational analogue of the modulus of continuity that is central to statistical minimax analysis. We show how the computational modulus of continuity can be explicitly calculated in concrete cases, and relates to the curvature of the function at the optimum. We also prove a superefficiency result that demonstrates it is a meaningful benchmark, acting as a computational analogue of the Fisher information in statistical estimation. The nature and practical implications of the results are demonstrated in simulations.

Calcium imaging is a prominent technology in neuroscience research which allows for simultaneous recording of large numbers of neurons in awake animals. Automated extraction of neurons and their temporal activity from imaging datasets is an important step in the path to producing neuroscience results. However, nearly all imaging datasets contain gross contaminating sources which could originate from the technology used, or the underlying biological tissue. Although past work has considered the effects of contamination under limited circumstances, there has not been a general framework treating contamination and its effects on the statistical estimation of calcium signals. In this work, we proceed in a new direction and propose to extract cells and their activity using robust statistical estimation. Using the theory of M-estimation, we derive a minimax optimal robust loss, and also find a simple and practical optimization routine for this loss with provably fast convergence. We use our proposed robust loss in a matrix factorization framework to extract the neurons and their temporal activity in calcium imaging datasets. We demonstrate the superiority of our robust estimation approach over existing methods on both simulated and real datasets.

We consider the problem of purchasing data for machine learning or statistical estimation.

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) is a general-purpose algorithm for combinatorial optimization that has been a promising avenue for near-term quantum advantage. In this paper, we analyze the performance of the QAOA on the spiked tensor model, a statistical estimation problem that exhibits a large computational-statistical gap classically. We prove that the weak recovery threshold of $1$-step QAOA matches that of $1$-step tensor power iteration. Additional heuristic calculations suggest that the weak recovery threshold of $p$-step QAOA matches that of $p$-step tensor power iteration when $p$ is a fixed constant. This further implies that multi-step QAOA with tensor unfolding could achieve, but not surpass, the asymptotic classical computation threshold $\Theta(n^{(q-2)/4})$ for spiked $q$-tensors. Meanwhile, we characterize the asymptotic overlap distribution for $p$-step QAOA, discovering an intriguing sine-Gaussian law verified through simulations. For some $p$ and $q$, the QAOA has an effective recovery threshold that is a constant factor better than tensor power iteration.Of independent interest, our proof techniques employ the Fourier transform to handle difficult combinatorial sums, a novel approach differing from prior QAOA analyses on spin-glass models without planted structure.

Calcium imaging is a prominent technology in neuroscience research which allows for simultaneous recording of large numbers of neurons in awake animals. Automated extraction of neurons and their temporal activity from imaging datasets is an important step in the path to producing neuroscience results. However, nearly all imaging datasets contain gross contaminating sources which could originate from the technology used, or the underlying biological tissue. Although past work has considered the effects of contamination under limited circumstances, there has not been a general framework treating contamination and its effects on the statistical estimation of calcium signals. In this work, we proceed in a new direction and propose to extract cells and their activity using robust statistical estimation. Using the theory of M-estimation, we derive a minimax optimal robust loss, and also find a simple and practical optimization routine for this loss with provably fast convergence. We use our proposed robust loss in a matrix factorization framework to extract the neurons and their temporal activity in calcium imaging datasets. We demonstrate the superiority of our robust estimation approach over existing methods on both simulated and real datasets.

The development of trustworthy artificial intelligence requires moving beyond black-box performance metrics toward an understanding of models' internal computations. Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) aims to meet this need by identifying the algorithmic mechanisms underlying model behaviors. Yet, the scientific rigor of MI critically depends on the reliability of its findings. In this work, we argue that interpretability methods, such as circuit discovery, should be viewed as statistical estimators, subject to questions of variance and robustness. To illustrate this statistical framing, we present a systematic stability analysis of a state-of-the-art circuit discovery method: EAP-IG. We evaluate its variance and robustness through a comprehensive suite of controlled perturbations, including input resampling, prompt paraphrasing, hyperparameter variation, and injected noise within the causal analysis itself. Across a diverse set of models and tasks, our results demonstrate that EAP-IG exhibits high structural variance and sensitivity to hyperparameters, questioning the stability of its findings. Based on these results, we offer a set of best-practice recommendations for the field, advocating for the routine reporting of stability metrics to promote a more rigorous and statistically grounded science of interpretability.

We establish minimax risk lower bounds for distributed statistical estimation given a budget B of the total number of bits that may be communicated. Such lower bounds in turn reveal the minimum amount of communication required by any procedure to achieve the classical optimal rate for statistical estimation. We study two classes of protocols in which machines send messages either independently or interactively. The lower bounds are established for a variety of problems, from estimating the mean of a population to estimating parameters in linear regression or binary classification.

The quantum approximate optimization algorithm (QAOA) is a general-purpose algorithm for combinatorial optimization that has been a promising avenue for near-term quantum advantage. In this paper, we analyze the performance of the QAOA on the spiked tensor model, a statistical estimation problem that exhibits a large computational-statistical gap classically. We prove that the weak recovery threshold of 1 -step QAOA matches that of 1 -step tensor power iteration. Additional heuristic calculations suggest that the weak recovery threshold of p -step QAOA matches that of p -step tensor power iteration when p is a fixed constant. This further implies that multi-step QAOA with tensor unfolding could achieve, but not surpass, the asymptotic classical computation threshold \Theta(n {(q-2)/4}) for spiked q -tensors.