We study the subclass of potential mean-field games in which the running interaction cost and the terminal target cost are both expressed through reproducing-kernel maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) penalties, and develop a computational framework that exploits this kernel structure. Both costs are estimated from finite-sample empirical distributions using a random Fourier U-statistic representation that is unbiased and has linear cost in the batch size. The drift of the controlled diffusion is parametrized by a neural network and trained via stochastic gradient descent. For this subclass we prove a sample-level almost-sure convergence theorem and an explicit almost-sure rate of convergence, under coupled rate conditions on the penalty parameter, the random-feature count, the sample size, and the optimization tolerance. The framework includes the kernel-MMD-penalty Schrödinger bridge problem as the special case of a vanishing interaction cost. Numerical experiments illustrate the method on the Schrödinger bridge problem in dimensions up to one hundred, and on an electric vehicle charging coordination problem with per-vehicle physical heterogeneity, where an aggregate-demand congestion cost represents price-feedback competition at the population level and the terminal MMD penalty shapes the state-of-charge distribution at the deadline.

Sequential prediction is challenging in regimes of delayed disambiguation, where early observations are ambiguous and multiple latent explanations remain plausible until sufficient evidence accumulates. Standard approaches based on marginal inference struggle in this setting, either collapsing uncertainty prematurely or failing to recover once informative evidence arrives. We introduce EviTrack, a test-time inference framework that operates over latent trajectories rather than marginal states. EviTrack maintains a set of competing trajectory hypotheses and applies evidence- and likelihood-ratio-based selection to delay commitment until supported by data, drawing inspiration from hypothesis management in multiple hypothesis tracking and track-before-detect. To evaluate this setting, we construct a controlled synthetic benchmark with known latent ground truth that explicitly exhibits delayed disambiguation. At matched inference budget, EviTrack substantially outperforms sampling-based baselines, achieving faster post-disambiguation recovery. These results show that, in delayed disambiguation regimes, moderate trajectory-level selection is more effective than increasing sampling coverage, highlighting selection over sampling as a key principle for reliable sequential inference.

Orthogonal parameter-efficient fine-tuning (PEFT) adapts pretrained weights through structure-preserving multiplicative transformations, but existing methods often conflate two distinct design choices: the subspace in which adaptation occurs and the transformation applied within that subspace. This paper introduces LOFT, a low-rank orthogonal fine-tuning framework that explicitly separates these two components. By viewing orthogonal adaptation as a multiplicative subspace rotation, LOFT provides a unified formulation that recovers representative orthogonal PEFT methods, including coordinate-, butterfly-, Householder-, and principal-subspace-based variants. More importantly, this perspective exposes support selection as a central design axis rather than a byproduct of a particular parameterization. We develop a first-order analysis showing that useful adaptation supports should be informed by the downstream training signal, motivating practical task-aware support selection strategies. Across language understanding, visual transfer, mathematical reasoning, and multilingual out-of-distribution adaptation, LOFT recovers principal-subspace orthogonal adaptation while gradient-informed supports improve the efficiency-performance trade-off under matched parameter, memory, and compute budgets. These results suggest that principled support selection is an important direction for improving orthogonal PEFT.

Constructing valid and informative conformal prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs remains a fundamental challenge. While conformal prediction provides finite-sample, distribution-free coverage guarantees, its practical performance critically depends on the choice of nonconformity score. Existing approaches often rely on restrictive geometric assumptions or require explicit likelihood evaluation and invertible transformations, limiting their applicability in complex generative settings. In this work, we introduce TRACE (TRansport Alignment Conformal Estimation), a conformal prediction framework that defines nonconformity through transport alignment in diffusion and flow matching models. Rather than evaluating likelihoods, we measure how well a candidate output aligns with the learned generative dynamics by averaging denoising or velocity-matching errors along stochastic transport trajectories. The resulting transport-based scores are scalar-valued and can be calibrated using split conformal prediction, yielding valid marginal coverage under exchangeability. We further analyze the statistical properties of the proposed scores and their sensitivity to computational budget. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate valid coverage and show that the resulting regions adapt naturally to multimodal and non-convex conditional distributions.

We study zeroth-order optimisation under context distributional uncertainty, a setting commonly tackled using Bayesian optimisation (BO). A prevailing strategy to make BO more robust to the complex and noisy nature of data is to employ an ensemble as the surrogate model, thereby mitigating the weaknesses of any single model. In this study, we propose a novel algorithm for Ensemble Distributionally Robust Bayesian Optimisation that remains computationally tractable while managing continuous context. We obtain theoretical sublinear regret bounds, improving current state-of-the-art results. We show that our method's empirical behaviour aligns with its theoretical guarantees.

The expectation--maximization (EM) algorithm combines global monotonicity, local linear convergence, and strong practical robustness, but these features are usually analyzed separately. Global descent is nonlinear, whereas local convergence is governed by the spectrum of the linearized EM map. How these two levels fit into a single dynamical picture has remained less transparent. We make explicit the latent-variable operator that connects them. Along the EM trajectory, the likelihood increment admits a global energy decomposition in terms of posterior-relative entropy. Linearization at a nondegenerate maximizer $θ^\ast$ then reveals the local operator \[ \mathcal G_{θ^\ast}=I-DT(θ^\ast), \] which coincides with both the missing-information ratio and the information-geometric Hessian of the observed likelihood. This operator provides a unified description of local contraction, posterior rigidity, and geometric curvature. Its spectrum yields a sharp characterization of local convergence and naturally leads to an optimal scalar relaxation rule for locally accelerated EM. These results place global descent, local spectral behavior, and optimal local relaxation within a common dynamical framework.

Instrumental variable (IV) and control function (CF) methods are powerful tools for causal effect estimation in the presence of unmeasured confounding, yet most existing approaches target only mean effects and/or demand substantial fitting and tuning effort. In this paper, we introduce a simple method, TabCF, for control function regression using tabular foundation models, which enables accurate, fast, identification-transparent, and tuning-light causal estimation of distributional quantities, such as interventional means and quantiles; we also propose a copula-based approximation for multivariate outcomes. TabCF performs favorably against representative methods across a broad range of small- to medium-sized synthetic and real data scenarios. The central message is two-fold: for practitioners, it highlights that TabCF is an effective tool for distributional causal inference; for researchers, it suggests that the proposed approach could be considered a strong baseline for future method development. Code is available at https://github.com/GepingChen/TabCF.

Despite being confined within the interior darkness of the skull, the human brain possesses a remarkable ability to interpret, understand and analyse the world out there, plan for unseen futures, and make decisions that can alter the course of events. This extraordinary capability is conjectured to come from the brain's function as a predictive machine, constantly inferring the hidden causes of its sensory inputs to maintain a coherent model of its environment. This view, which dates back to Helmholtz's idea of "perception as unconscious inference" (von Helmholtz, 1866)--evolving into the "Bayesian brain" hypothesis (Doya et al., 2007)--suggests that the brain operates as a constructive statistical organ. It updates its beliefs about the external world based on incoming sensory data under a generative model (GM). The GM furnishes the brain with a structured representation that supports probabilistic beliefs over both the latent dynamical states of the external world, corresponding to the generative process (GP), as well as the observation mappings through which these states give rise to sensory signals. Essentially, the brain continually refines its probabilistic beliefs about both the latent states and the causal mechanisms of the world through a process of online triple estimation, jointly optimising beliefs over: hidden states, model parameters, and their associated uncertainties in accordance with the principles of Bayesian inference (Eells, 2004; Parr et al., 2022). More technically, given a sensory observation yt at time t, perception can be formulated as an online triple estimation scheme, whose three components are: 1) online hidden state inference, 2) online parameter learning, and 3) online uncertainty estimation, all three of which are the core components of our proposed online generalised PC scheme and are elaborated in Section.

This paper presents a novel value-aware approach to product recommendation that simultaneously addresses the high dimensionality and sparsity of user-item data while explicitly incorporating the contribution of each product and user to overall sales revenue. The proposed framework encodes revenue contributions in the user-item matrix and computes customer similarity directly on this basis using suitable distance measures. This enables the segmentation of users according to the revenue-based similarity of their purchase baskets and supports recommendations aligned with profitability objectives. We compare conventional similarity metrics with a novel alternative tailored to high-dimensional contexts and propose three recommendation strategies based on revenue share, product popularity, and expected profit generation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated through simulation experiments and a real-world application using the UCI Online Retail dataset.

A.1 Training dataset pre-processing We used 40000publicly available videos from YouTube which were available in a spatial resolution of at least 1920 1080 pixels. In an attempt not to skew the distribution of content too far from what may inform biological representation learning, we excluded most artificial content such as screenshots and videos of computer games. To reduce video compression artifacts and prevent systematic downsampling artifacts, each segment was then spatially downsampled to a randomized height between 128 and 160. Each segment was then separated into 15 pairs of neighboring frames, and a randomly placed, but spatially colocated patch of 64 64 pixels was cropped out of each frame pair. The order of the frame pairs was then randomized in a running buffer, and all RGB pixel values were normalized to the range between 0 and 1 before being fed into the model.