Natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and winter storms have induced large-scale power outages in the U.S., resulting in tremendous economic and societal impacts. Accurately predicting power outage recovery and impact is key to resilience of power grid. Recent advances in machine learning offer viable frameworks for estimating power outage duration from geospatial and weather data. However, three major challenges are inherent to the task in a real world setting: spatial dependency of the data, spatial heterogeneity of the impact, and moderate event data. We propose a novel approach to estimate the duration of severe weather-induced power outages through Graph Attention Networks (GAT). Our network uses a simple structure from unsupervised pre-training, followed by semi-supervised learning. We use field data from four major hurricanes affecting $501$ counties in eight Southeastern U.S. states. The model exhibits an excellent performance ($>93\%$ accuracy) and outperforms the existing methods XGBoost, Random Forest, GCN and simple GAT by $2\% - 15\%$ in both the overall performance and class-wise accuracy.

Traffic prediction is a critical component of intelligent transportation systems, enabling applications such as congestion mitigation and accident risk prediction. While recent research has explored both graph-based and grid-based approaches, key limitations remain. Graph-based methods effectively capture non-Euclidean spatial structures but often incur high computational overhead, limiting their practicality in large-scale systems. In contrast, grid-based methods, which primarily leverage Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), offer greater computational efficiency but struggle to model irregular spatial patterns due to the fixed shape of their filters. Moreover, both approaches often fail to account for inherent spatio-temporal heterogeneity, as they typically apply a shared set of parameters across diverse regions and time periods. To address these challenges, we propose the Deformable Dynamic Convolutional Network (DDCN), a novel CNN-based architecture that integrates both deformable and dynamic convolution operations. The deformable layer introduces learnable offsets to create flexible receptive fields that better align with spatial irregularities, while the dynamic layer generates region-specific filters, allowing the model to adapt to varying spatio-temporal traffic patterns. By combining these two components, DDCN effectively captures both non-Euclidean spatial structures and spatio-temporal heterogeneity. Extensive experiments on four real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that DDCN achieves competitive predictive performance while significantly reducing computational costs, underscoring its potential for large-scale and real-time deployment.

We introduce a Partial Functional Dynamic Backdoor Diffusion-based Causal Model (PFD-BDCM), specifically designed for causal inference in the presence of unmeasured confounders with spatial heterogeneity and temporal dependency. The proposed PFD-BDCM framework addresses the restrictions of the existing approaches by uniquely integrating models for complex spatio-temporal dynamics with the analysis of multi-resolution variables. Specifically, the framework systematically mitigates confounding bias by integrating valid backdoor adjustment sets into a diffusion-based sampling mechanism. Moreover, it accounts for the intricate dynamics of unmeasured confounders through the deployment of region-specific structural equations and conditional autoregressive processes, and accommodates variables observed at heterogeneous resolutions via basis expansions for functional data. Our theoretical analysis establishes error bounds for counterfactual estimates of PFD-BDCM, formally linking reconstruction accuracy to counterfactual fidelity under monotonicity assumptions of structural equation and invertibility assumptions of encoding function. Empirical evaluations on synthetic datasets and real-world air pollution data demonstrate PFD-BDCM's superiority over existing methods.

This paper quantitatively investigates the crash severity of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) with spatially localized machine learning and macroscopic measures of the urban built environment. Extending beyond the microscopic effects of individual infrastructure elements, we focus on the city-scale land use and behavioral patterns, while addressing spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. We implemented a spatially localized machine learning technique called Geographical Random Forest (GRF) on the California AV collision dataset. Analyzing multiple urban measures, including points of interest, building footprint, and land use, we built a GRF model and visualized it as a crash severity risk map of San Francisco. This paper presents three findings. First, spatially localized machine learning outperformed regular machine learning in predicting AV crash severity. The bias-variance tradeoff was evident as we adjusted the localization weight hyperparameter. Second, land use was the most important predictor, compared to intersections, building footprints, public transit stops, and Points Of Interest (POIs). Third, AV crashes were more likely to result in low-severity incidents in city center areas with greater diversity and commercial activities, than in residential neighborhoods. Residential land use is likely associated with higher severity due to human behavior and less restrictive environments. Counterintuitively, residential areas were associated with higher crash severity, compared to more complex areas such as commercial and mixed-use areas. When robotaxi operators train their AV systems, it is recommended to: (1) consider where their fleet operates and make localized algorithms for their perception system, and (2) design safety measures specific to residential neighborhoods, such as slower driving speeds and more alert sensors.

Given inputs of diverse soil characteristics, and climate data gathered from various regions, we aimed to build a model to predict accurate land emissions. The problem is important since accurate quantification of the carbon cycle in agroecosystems is crucial for mitigating climate change and ensuring sustainable food production. Predicting accurate land emissions is challenging due to since calibrating heterogeneous nature of soil properties, moisture, and environmental conditions is hard at decision-relevant scales. Traditional approaches do not adequately estimate land emissions due to location-independent parameters failing to leverage the spatial heterogeneity and also require large datasets. To overcome these limitations, we proposed Spatial Distribution-Shift A ware Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning (SDSA-KGML) which leverage location-dependent parameters which accounts significant spatial heterogeneity in soil moisture from multiple sites within the same region. Experimental results demonstrate that SDSA-KGML models achieve higher local accuracy for the specified states in the Midwest Region.

Modeling spatial heterogeneity in the data generation process is essential for understanding and predicting geographical phenomena. Despite their prevalence in geospatial tasks, neural network models usually assume spatial stationarity, which could limit their performance in the presence of spatial process heterogeneity. By allowing model parameters to vary over space, several approaches have been proposed to incorporate spatial heterogeneity into neural networks. However, current geographically weighting approaches are ineffective on graph neural networks, yielding no significant improvement in prediction accuracy. We assume the crux lies in the over-fitting risk brought by a large number of local parameters. Accordingly, we propose to model spatial process heterogeneity at the regional level rather than at the individual level, which largely reduces the number of spatially varying parameters. We further develop a heuristic optimization procedure to learn the region partition adaptively in the process of model training. Our proposed spatial-heterogeneity-aware graph convolutional network, named RegionGCN, is applied to the spatial prediction of county-level vote share in the 2016 US presidential election based on socioeconomic attributes. Results show that RegionGCN achieves significant improvement over the basic and geographically weighted GCNs. We also offer an exploratory analysis tool for the spatial variation of non-linear relationships through ensemble learning of regional partitions from RegionGCN. Our work contributes to the practice of Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) in tackling spatial heterogeneity.

Federated learning is a new framework that protects data privacy and allows multiple devices to cooperate in training machine learning models. Previous studies have proposed multiple approaches to eliminate the challenges posed by non-iid data and inter-domain heterogeneity issues. However, they ignore the \textbf{spatio-temporal} heterogeneity formed by different data distributions of increasing task data in the intra-domain. Moreover, the global data is generally a long-tailed distribution rather than assuming the global data is balanced in practical applications. To tackle the \textbf{spatio-temporal} dilemma, we propose a novel setting named \textbf{Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity} Federated Learning (STHFL). Specially, the Global-Local Dynamic Prototype (GLDP) framework is designed for STHFL. In GLDP, the model in each client contains personalized layers which can dynamically adapt to different data distributions. For long-tailed data distribution, global prototypes are served as complementary knowledge for the training on classes with few samples in clients without leaking privacy. As tasks increase in clients, the knowledge of local prototypes generated in previous tasks guides for training in the current task to solve catastrophic forgetting. Meanwhile, the global-local prototypes are updated through the moving average method after training local prototypes in clients. Finally, we evaluate the effectiveness of GLDP, which achieves remarkable results compared to state-of-the-art methods in STHFL scenarios.

Traffic accident forecasting is an important task for intelligent transportation management and emergency response systems. However, this problem is challenging due to the spatial heterogeneity of the environment. Existing data-driven methods mostly focus on studying homogeneous areas with limited size (e.g. a single urban area such as New York City) and fail to handle the heterogeneous accident patterns over space at different scales. Recent advances (e.g. spatial ensemble) utilize pre-defined space partitions and learn multiple models to improve prediction accuracy. However, external knowledge is required to define proper space partitions before training models and pre-defined partitions may not necessarily reduce the heterogeneity. To address this issue, we propose a novel Learning-Integrated Space Partition Framework (LISA) to simultaneously learn partitions while training models, where the partitioning process and learning process are integrated in a way that partitioning is guided explicitly by prediction accuracy rather than other factors. Experiments using real-world datasets, demonstrate that our work can capture underlying heterogeneous patterns in a self-guided way and substantially improve baseline networks by an average of 13.0%.