Confidence calibration for classification models is vital in safety-critical decision-making scenarios and has received extensive attention. General confidence calibration methods assume training and test data are independent and identically distributed, limiting their effectiveness under covariate shifts. Previous calibration methods under covariate shift struggle with class-wise or canonical calibrations and often rely on unstable importance weighting when density ratios are large or unbounded. Given the above limitations, this paper rethinks confidence calibration under covariate shifts. First, we derive a necessary and sufficient condition for confidence calibration under covariate shifts, named Expectation consistency condition, which reveals covariate shifts do not necessarily lead to uncalibrated confidence and provides a weaker condition for confidence calibration than global covariate distribution alignment. Then, utilizing Expectation consistency condition, this paper proposes an unsupervised domain adaptation loss to calibrate confidence of the target domain, named Expectation consistency loss (ECL), which is compatible with canonical calibration, class-wise calibration, and top-label calibration. Third, we prove that computing ECL loss has the same sample complexity as Expected Calibration Error (ECE) and provide a theoretically grounded mini-batch trainable scheme for ECL loss. Finally, we validate the effectiveness of our method on both simulated and real-world covariate shift datasets.

Domain adaptation faces a fundamental paradox in the cold-start regime. When target data is scarce, statistical methods fail to distinguish relevant source domains from irrelevant ones, which often leads to negative transfer. In this paper, we address this challenge by leveraging expert textual descriptions of the target domain, a resource that is often available but overlooked. We propose a probabilistic framework that translates these semantic descriptions into a choice model, namely a Language-Induced Prior (LIP), that learns the preferences from a pretrained Large Language Model (LLM). The LIP is then integrated into an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to identify source relevance. Methodologically, this framework is compatible with any parametric model where a likelihood is available. It allows the LIP to guide the selection of sources when target signals are weak, while gradually refining these choices as samples accumulate. Theoretically, we prove that the estimator roughly matches an oracle cold-start MSE under a correct prior, while remaining asymptotically consistent regardless of the quality of the LIP. Empirically, we validated the framework on a descriptive (Gaussian estimation), a predictive (C-MAPSS dataset), and a prescriptive task (MuJoCo hopper).

Traditional federated learning (FL) algorithms operate under the assumption that the data distributions at training (source domains) and testing (target domain) are the same. The fact that domain shifts often occur in practice necessitates equipping FL methods with a domain generalization (DG) capability. However, existing DG algorithms face fundamental challenges in FL setups due to the lack of samples/domains in each client's local dataset. In this paper, we propose StableFDG, a style and attention based learning strategy for accomplishing federated domain generalization, introducing two key contributions. The first is style-based learning, which enables each client to explore novel styles beyond the original source domains in its local dataset, improving domain diversity based on the proposed style sharing, shifting, and exploration strategies. Our second contribution is an attention-based feature highlighter, which captures the similarities between the features of data samples in the same class, and emphasizes the important/common characteristics to better learn the domain-invariant characteristics of each class in data-poor FL scenarios. Experimental results show that StableFDG outperforms existing baselines on various DG benchmark datasets, demonstrating its efficacy.

Mainstream approaches for unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) learn domaininvariant representations to narrow the domain shift, which are empirically effective but theoretically challenged by the hardness or impossibility theorems. Recently, self-training has been gaining momentum in UDA, which exploits unlabeled target data by training with target pseudo-labels. However, as corroborated in this work, under distributional shift, the pseudo-labels can be unreliable in terms of their large discrepancy from target ground truth. In this paper, we propose Cycle Self-Training (CST), a principled self-training algorithm that explicitly enforces pseudo-labels to generalize across domains.

Domain generalization (DG) aims to transfer the learning task from a single or multiple source domains to unseen target domains. To extract and leverage the information which exhibits sufficient generalization ability, we propose a simple yet effective approach of Adversarial Teacher-Student Representation Learning, with the goal of deriving the domain generalizable representations via generating and exploring out-of-source data distributions. Our proposed framework advances Teacher-Student learning in an adversarial learning manner, which alternates between knowledge-distillation based representation learning and novel-domain data augmentation.

We propose a general method to construct centroid approximation for the distribution of maximum points of a random function (a.k.a.