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Distributionally Robust Transfer Learning with Structurally Missing Covariates, with Application to Cross-National Cardiac Arrest Prediction
Li, Siqi, Hong, Chuan, Tian, Ziye, Leong, Benjamin Sieu-Hon, Nakagawa, Koshi, Tanaka, Hideharu, Shin, Sang Do, Dai, Khuong Quoc, Son, Do Ngoc, Ong, Marcus Eng Hock, Liu, Nan, Liu, Molei
Deploying clinical prediction models across healthcare systems often fails when key training covariates are unavailable at deployment and labeled outcomes are limited in the target domain. For example, high-performing models for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) rely on detailed prehospital measurements routinely collected in high-resource settings but unavailable in many international registries. Existing methods either discard missing covariates, sacrificing predictive information, or rely on untestable assumptions about their target distribution. We propose DRUM (\underline{D}istributionally \underline{R}obust \underline{U}nsupervised transfer learning with structurally \underline{M}issing covariates), a framework that transfers prediction models to target populations where certain covariates are structurally absent and outcome labels are unavailable. DRUM partitions covariates into shared components ($X$), observed across all settings, and missing components ($A$), observed only in the source. Rather than imputing missing covariates, DRUM optimizes worst-case predictive performance over the unknown target distribution of $A \mid X$ using a neural network generator, with a robustness parameter controlling allowable deviation from the source conditional. We further develop a bias correction procedure that reduces sensitivity to nuisance estimation error. Simulations show substantial improvements in both mean and worst-case prediction error under distribution shift. Applied to cross-national OHCA prediction, transferring models from a US registry to multiple Asian registries where prehospital variables are unrecorded, DRUM yields better-calibrated predictions and improved clinical classification performance across sites.
Divide and Contrast: Source-free Domain Adaptation via Adaptive Contrastive Learning
We investigate a practical domain adaptation task, called source-free unsupervised domain adaptation (SFUDA), where the source pretrained model is adapted to the target domain without access to the source data. Existing techniques mainly leverage self-supervised pseudo-labeling to achieve class-wise global alignment [1] or rely on local structure extraction that encourages the feature consistency among neighborhoods [2]. While impressive progress has been made, both lines of methods have their own drawbacks - the "global" approach is sensitive to noisy labels while the "local" counterpart suffers from the source bias. In this paper, we present Divide and Contrast (DaC), a new paradigm for SFUDA that strives to connect the good ends of both worlds while bypassing their limitations. Based on the prediction confidence of the source model, DaC divides the target data into source-like and target-specific samples, where either group of samples is treated with tailored goals under an adaptive contrastive learning framework. Specifically, the source-like samples are utilized for learning global class clustering thanks to their relatively clean labels. The more noisy target-specific data are harnessed at the instance level for learning the intrinsic local structures. We further align the sourcelike domain with the target-specific samples using a memory-based maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) loss to reduce the distribution mismatch. Extensive experiments on VisDA, Office-Home, and the more challenging DomainNet have verified the superior performance of DaC over current state-of-the-art approaches.
Model Adaptation: Historical Contrastive Learning for Unsupervised Domain Adaptation without Source Data
Unsupervised domain adaptation aims to align a labeled source domain and an unlabeled target domain, but it requires to access the source data which often raises concerns in data privacy, data portability and data transmission efficiency. We study unsupervised model adaptation (UMA), or called Unsupervised Domain Adaptation without Source Data, an alternative setting that aims to adapt source-trained models towards target distributions without accessing source data. To this end, we design an innovative historical contrastive learning (HCL) technique that exploits historical source hypothesis to make up for the absence of source data in UMA. HCL addresses the UMA challenge from two perspectives. First, it introduces historical contrastive instance discrimination (HCID) that learns from target samples by contrasting their embeddings which are generated by the currently adapted model and the historical models. With the historical models, HCID encourages UMA to learn instance-discriminative target representations while preserving the source hypothesis. Second, it introduces historical contrastive category discrimination (HCCD) that pseudo-labels target samples to learn category-discriminative target representations.
Fine-tuning Factor Augmented Neural Lasso for Heterogeneous Environments
Chai, Jinhang, Fan, Jianqing, Gao, Cheng, Yin, Qishuo
Fine-tuning is a widely used strategy for adapting pre-trained models to new tasks, yet its methodology and theoretical properties in high-dimensional nonparametric settings with variable selection have not yet been developed. This paper introduces the fine-tuning factor augmented neural Lasso (FAN-Lasso), a transfer learning framework for high-dimensional nonparametric regression with variable selection that simultaneously handles covariate and posterior shifts. We use a low-rank factor structure to manage high-dimensional dependent covariates and propose a novel residual fine-tuning decomposition in which the target function is expressed as a transformation of a frozen source function and other variables to achieve transfer learning and nonparametric variable selection. This augmented feature from the source predictor allows for the transfer of knowledge to the target domain and reduces model complexity there. We derive minimax-optimal excess risk bounds for the fine-tuning FAN-Lasso, characterizing the precise conditions, in terms of relative sample sizes and function complexities, under which fine-tuning yields statistical acceleration over single-task learning. The proposed framework also provides a theoretical perspective on parameter-efficient fine-tuning methods. Extensive numerical experiments across diverse covariate- and posterior-shift scenarios demonstrate that the fine-tuning FAN-Lasso consistently outperforms standard baselines and achieves near-oracle performance even under severe target sample size constraints, empirically validating the derived rates.
Transfer Learning in Bayesian Optimization for Aircraft Design
Tfaily, Ali, Diouane, Youssef, Bartoli, Nathalie, Kokkolaras, Michael
The use of transfer learning within Bayesian optimization addresses the disadvantages of the so-called \textit{cold start} problem by using source data to aid in the optimization of a target problem. We present a method that leverages an ensemble of surrogate models using transfer learning and integrates it in a constrained Bayesian optimization framework. We identify challenges particular to aircraft design optimization related to heterogeneous design variables and constraints. We propose the use of a partial-least-squares dimension reduction algorithm to address design space heterogeneity, and a \textit{meta} data surrogate selection method to address constraint heterogeneity. Numerical benchmark problems and an aircraft conceptual design optimization problem are used to demonstrate the proposed methods. Results show significant improvement in convergence in early optimization iterations compared to standard Bayesian optimization, with improved prediction accuracy for both objective and constraint surrogate models.
Test-Time Dynamic Image Fusion
The inherent challenge of image fusion lies in capturing the correlation of multi-source images and comprehensively integrating effective information from different sources. Most existing techniques fail to perform dynamic image fusion while notably lacking theoretical guarantees, leading to potential deployment risks in this field. Is it possible to conduct dynamic image fusion with a clear theoretical justification? In this paper, we give our solution from a generalization perspective. We proceed to reveal the generalized form of image fusion and derive a new test-time dynamic image fusion paradigm. It provably reduces the upper bound of generalization error.