The United Arab Emirates (UAE) relies heavily on seawater desalination to meet over 90% of its drinking water needs. Desalination processes are highly energy intensive and account for approximately 15% of the UAE's electricity consumption, contributing to over 22% of the country's energy-related CO2 emissions. Moreover, these processes face significant sustainability challenges in the face of climate uncertainties such as rising seawater temperatures, salinity, and aerosol optical depth (AOD). AOD greatly affects the operational and economic performance of solar-powered desalination systems through photovoltaic soiling, membrane fouling, and water turbidity cycles. This study proposes a novel pipelined two-stage predictive modelling architecture: the first stage forecasts AOD using satellite-derived time series and meteorological data; the second stage uses the predicted AOD and other meteorological factors to predict desalination performance efficiency losses. The framework achieved 98% accuracy, and SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was used to reveal key drivers of system degradation. Furthermore, this study proposes a dust-aware rule-based control logic for desalination systems based on predicted values of AOD and solar efficiency. This control logic is used to adjust the desalination plant feed water pressure, adapt maintenance scheduling, and regulate energy source switching. To enhance the practical utility of the research findings, the predictive models and rule-based controls were packaged into an interactive dashboard for scenario and predictive analytics. This provides a management decision-support system for climate-adaptive planning.

The rapid expansion of distributed photovoltaic (PV) installations worldwide, many being behind-the-meter systems, has significantly challenged energy management and grid operations, as unobservable PV generation further complicates the supply-demand balance. Therefore, estimating this generation from net load, known as PV disaggregation, is critical. Given privacy concerns and the need for large training datasets, federated learning becomes a promising approach, but statistical heterogeneity, arising from geographical and behavioral variations among prosumers, poses new challenges to PV disaggregation. To overcome these challenges, a privacy-preserving distributed PV disaggregation framework is proposed using Personalized Federated Learning (PFL). The proposed method employs a two-level framework that combines local and global modeling. At the local level, a transformer-based PV disaggregation model is designed to generate solar irradiance embeddings for representing local PV conditions. A novel adaptive local aggregation mechanism is adopted to mitigate the impact of statistical heterogeneity on the local model, extracting a portion of global information that benefits the local model. At the global level, a central server aggregates information uploaded from multiple data centers, preserving privacy while enabling cross-center knowledge sharing. Experiments on real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of this proposed framework, showing improved accuracy and robustness compared to benchmark methods.

Clearsky models are widely used in solar energy for many applications such as quality control, resource assessment, satellite-base irradiance estimation and forecasting. However, their use in forecasting and nowcasting is associated with a number of challenges. Synchronization errors, reliance on the Clearsky index (ratio of the global horizontal irradiance to its cloud-free counterpart) and high sensitivity of the clearsky model to errors in aerosol optical depth at low solar elevation limit their added value in real-time applications. This paper explores the feasibility of short-term forecasting without relying on a clearsky model. We propose a Clearsky-Free forecasting approach using Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) models. ELM learns daily periodicity and local variability directly from raw Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) data. It eliminates the need for Clearsky normalization, simplifying the forecasting process and improving scalability. Our approach is a non-linear adaptative statistical method that implicitely learns the irradiance in cloud-free conditions removing the need for an clear-sky model and the related operational issues. Deterministic and probabilistic results are compared to traditional benchmarks, including ARMA with McClear-generated Clearsky data and quantile regression for probabilistic forecasts. ELM matches or outperforms these methods, providing accurate predictions and robust uncertainty quantification. This approach offers a simple, efficient solution for real-time solar forecasting. By overcoming the stationarization process limitations based on usual multiplicative scheme Clearsky models, it provides a flexible and reliable framework for modern energy systems.

Traditional solar forecasting models are based on several years of site-specific historical irradiance data, often spanning five or more years, which are unavailable for newer photovoltaic farms. As renewable energy is highly intermittent, building accurate solar irradiance forecasting systems is essential for efficient grid management and enabling the ongoing proliferation of solar energy, which is crucial to achieve the United Nations' net zero goals. In this work, we propose SPIRIT, a novel approach leveraging foundation models for solar irradiance forecasting, making it applicable to newer solar installations. Our approach outperforms state-of-the-art models in zero-shot transfer learning by about 70%, enabling effective performance at new locations without relying on any historical data. Further improvements in performance are achieved through fine-tuning, as more location-specific data becomes available. These findings are supported by statistical significance, further validating our approach. SPIRIT represents a pivotal step towards rapid, scalable, and adaptable solar forecasting solutions, advancing the integration of renewable energy into global power systems.

Solar irradiance clustering can enhance solar power capacity planning and help improve forecasting models by identifying similar irradiance patterns influenced by seasonal and weather changes. In this study, we adopt an efficient two-level clustering approach to automatically identify seasons using the clear sky irradiance in first level and subsequently to identify daily cloud level as clear, cloudy and partly cloudy within each season in second level. In the second level of clustering, three methods are compared, namely, Daily Irradiance Index (DII or $\beta$), Euclidean Distance (ED), and Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance. The DII is computed as the ratio of time integral of measured irradiance to time integral of the clear sky irradiance. The identified clusters were compared quantitatively using established clustering metrics and qualitatively by comparing the mean irradiance profiles. The results clearly establish the superiority of the $\beta$-based clustering approach as the leader, setting a new benchmark for solar irradiance clustering studies. Moreover, $\beta$-based clustering remains effective even for annual data unlike the time-series methods which suffer significant performance degradation. Interestingly, contrary to expectations, ED-based clustering outperforms the more compute-intensive DTW distance-based clustering. The method has been rigorously validated using data from two distinct US locations, demonstrating robust scalability for larger datasets and potential applicability for other locations.

Thailand has targeted to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 when the power grid will need to accommodate 50% share of renewable electricity generation capacity; see [Ene21]. The most recent draft of Power Development Plan 2024 (PDP2024) for 2024 - 2037 from [Ene24] proposes to add a new solar generation capacity of approximately 24,400 MWp (more than 4 times the amount issued in the previous Alternative Energy Development Plan 2015-2036 (AEDP2015) at 6,000 MWp, shown in [Dep15, p.9]. This amount does not yet include behind-the-meter, self-generation solar installed capacities of the prosumers, which is expected to increase at an accelerating rate. Solar integration into the power grid with such a sharprising amount will pose technical challenges to the operation and control of the transmission and distribution networks, carried out by the transmission system operator (TSO) and distribution system operator (DSO), as presented in [OB16]. Hence, TSO in Thailand will need an effective means to estimate the solar power generation across the entire transmission network, on an hourly basis, or even finer time resolution, to provide economic hour-to-hour generation dispatch for load following the total net load of the transmission, and to prepare sufficient system flexibility (i.e., ramp-rate capability of the thermal and hydropower plants, or energy storage systems) to cope with the net load fluctuation due to solar generation intermittency for maintaining system frequency stability, concurrently, in its operation. For DSO, a significant amount of reverse power flow when self-generation from solar exceeds self-consumption can lead to technical concerns of voltage regulation and equipment overloading problems. The near real-time estimation of solar generation in each distribution area will enable DSO to activate proper network switching or reconfiguring to mitigate such fundamental concerns to ensure its reliable operation.

By the end of 2023, renewable sources cover 63.4% of the total electric power demand of Chile, and in line with the global trend, photovoltaic (PV) power shows the most dynamic increase. Although Chile's Atacama Desert is considered the sunniest place on Earth, PV power production, even in this area, can be highly volatile. Successful integration of PV energy into the country's power grid requires accurate short-term PV power forecasts, which can be obtained from predictions of solar irradiance and related weather quantities. Nowadays, in weather forecasting, the state-of-the-art approach is the use of ensemble forecasts based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. However, ensemble forecasts still tend to be uncalibrated or biased, thus requiring some form of post-processing. The present work investigates probabilistic forecasts of solar irradiance for Regions III and IV in Chile. For this reason, 8-member short-term ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance for calendar year 2021 are generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which are then calibrated using the benchmark ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) method based on a censored Gaussian law, and its machine learning-based distributional regression network (DRN) counterpart. Furthermore, we also propose a neural network-based post-processing method resulting in improved 8-member ensemble predictions. All forecasts are evaluated against station observations for 30 locations, and the skill of post-processed predictions is compared to the raw WRF ensemble. Our case study confirms that all studied post-processing methods substantially improve both the calibration of probabilistic- and the accuracy of point forecasts. Among the methods tested, the corrected ensemble exhibits the best overall performance. Additionally, the DRN model generally outperforms the corresponding EMOS approach.

Due to the unavailability of solar irradiance data for many potential sites of Nepal, the paper proposes predicting solar irradiance based on alternative meteorological parameters. The study focuses on five distinct regions in Nepal and utilizes a dataset spanning almost ten years, obtained from CERES SYN1deg and MERRA-2. Machine learning models such as Random Forest, XGBoost, K-Nearest Neighbors, and deep learning models like LSTM and ANN-MLP are employed and evaluated for their performance. The results indicate high accuracy in predicting solar irradiance, with R-squared(R2) scores close to unity for both train and test datasets. The impact of parameter integration on model performance is analyzed, revealing the significance of various parameters in enhancing predictive accuracy. Each model demonstrates strong performance across all parameters, consistently achieving MAE values below 6, RMSE values under 10, MBE within |2|, and nearly unity R2 values. Upon removal of various solar parameters such as "Solar_Irradiance_Clear_Sky", "UVA", etc. from the datasets, the model's performance is significantly affected. This exclusion leads to considerable increases in MAE, reaching up to 82, RMSE up to 135, and MBE up to |7|. Among the models, KNN displays the weakest performance, with an R2 of 0.7582546. Conversely, ANN exhibits the strongest performance, boasting an R2 value of 0.9245877. Hence, the study concludes that Artificial Neural Network (ANN) performs exceptionally well, showcasing its versatility even under sparse data parameter conditions.

As solar power continues to grow and replace traditional energy sources, the need for reliable forecasting models becomes increasingly important to ensure the stability and efficiency of the grid. However, the management of these models still needs to be improved, and new tools and technologies are required to handle the deployment and control of solar facilities. This work introduces a novel framework named Cloud-based Analysis and Integration for Data Efficiency (CAIDE), designed for real-time monitoring, management, and forecasting of solar irradiance sensor farms. CAIDE is designed to manage multiple sensor farms simultaneously while improving predictive models in real-time using well-grounded Modeling and Simulation (M&S) methodologies. The framework leverages Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) and an Internet of Things (IoT) infrastructure to support the deployment and analysis of solar plants in dynamic environments. The system can adapt and re-train the model when given incorrect results, ensuring that forecasts remain accurate and up-to-date. Furthermore, CAIDE can be executed in sequential, parallel, and distributed architectures, assuring scalability. The effectiveness of CAIDE is demonstrated in a complex scenario composed of several solar irradiance sensor farms connected to a centralized management system. Our results show that CAIDE is scalable and effective in managing and forecasting solar power production while improving the accuracy of predictive models in real time. The framework has important implications for the deployment of solar plants and the future of renewable energy sources.

Computational efficiency and adversarial robustness are critical factors in real-world engineering applications. Yet, conventional neural networks often fall short in addressing both simultaneously, or even separately. Drawing insights from natural physical systems and existing literature, it is known that an input convex architecture enhances computational efficiency, while a Lipschitz-constrained architecture bolsters adversarial robustness. By leveraging the strengths of convexity and Lipschitz continuity, we develop a novel network architecture, termed Input Convex Lipschitz Recurrent Neural Networks. This model outperforms existing recurrent units across a spectrum of engineering tasks in terms of computational efficiency and adversarial robustness. These tasks encompass a benchmark MNIST image classification, real-world solar irradiance prediction for Solar PV system planning at LHT Holdings in Singapore, and real-time Model Predictive Control optimization for a chemical reactor.