In this paper, we propose and analyze a model selection method for tree tensor networks in an empirical risk minimization framework. Tree tensor networks, or tree-based tensor formats, are prominent model classes for the approximation of high-dimensional functions in numerical analysis and data science. They correspond to sum-product neural networks with a sparse connectivity associated with a dimension partition tree $T$, widths given by a tuple $r$ of tensor ranks, and multilinear activation functions (or units). The approximation power of these model classes has been proved to be near-optimal for classical smoothness classes. However, in an empirical risk minimization framework with a limited number of observations, the dimension tree $T$ and ranks $r$ should be selected carefully to balance estimation and approximation errors. In this paper, we propose a complexity-based model selection strategy \`a la Barron, Birg\'e, Massart. Given a family of model classes, with different trees, ranks and tensor product feature spaces, a model is selected by minimizing a penalized empirical risk, with a penalty depending on the complexity of the model class. After deriving bounds of the metric entropy of tree tensor networks with bounded parameters, we deduce a form of the penalty from bounds on suprema of empirical processes. This choice of penalty yields a risk bound for the predictor associated with the selected model. For classical smoothness spaces, we show that the proposed strategy is minimax optimal in a least-squares setting. In practice, the amplitude of the penalty is calibrated with a slope heuristics method. Numerical experiments in a least-squares regression setting illustrate the performance of the strategy for the approximation of multivariate functions and univariate functions identified with tensors by tensorization (quantization).

We introduce Markov Random Geometric Graphs (MRGGs), a growth model for temporal dynamic networks. It is based on a Markovian latent space dynamic: consecutive latent points are sampled on the Euclidean Sphere using an unknown Markov kernel; and two nodes are connected with a probability depending on a unknown function of their latent geodesic distance. More precisely, at each stamp-time k we add a latent point X k sampled by jumping from the previous one X k--1 in a direction chosen uniformly Y k and with a length r k drawn from an unknown distribution called the latitude function. The connection probabilities between each pair of nodes are equal to the envelope function of the distance between these two latent points. We provide theoretical guarantees for the non-parametric estimation of the latitude and the envelope functions. We propose an efficient algorithm that achieves those non-parametric estimation tasks based on an ad-hoc Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering approach, and we deploy this analysis on a real data-set given by exchange of messages on a social network.

This text is the rejoinder following the discussion of a survey paper about minimal penalties and the slope heuristics (Arlot, 2019. Minimal penalties and the slope heuristics: a survey. Journal de la SFDS). While commenting on the remarks made by the discussants, it provides two new results about the slope heuristics for model selection among a collection of projection estimators in least-squares fixed-design regression. First, we prove that the slope heuristics works even when all models are significantly biased. Second, when the noise is Gaussian with a general dependence structure, we compute expectations of key quantities, showing that the slope heuristics certainly is valid in this setting also.

Birg{\'e} and Massart proposed in 2001 the slope heuristics as a way to choose optimally from data an unknown multiplicative constant in front of a penalty. It is built upon the notion of minimal penalty, and it has been generalized since to some 'minimal-penalty algorithms'. This paper reviews the theoretical results obtained for such algorithms, with a self-contained proof in the simplest framework, precise proof ideas for further generalizations, and a few new results. Explicit connections are made with residual-variance estimators-with an original contribution on this topic, showing that for this task the slope heuristics performs almost as well as a residual-based estimator with the best model choice-and some classical algorithms such as L-curve or elbow heuristics, Mallows' C p , and Akaike's FPE. Practical issues are also addressed, including two new practical definitions of minimal-penalty algorithms that are compared on synthetic data to previously-proposed definitions. Finally, several conjectures and open problems are suggested as future research directions.

Gaussian graphical models are widely utilized to infer and visualize networks of dependencies between continuous variables. However, inferring the graph is difficult when the sample size is small compared to the number of variables. To reduce the number of parameters to estimate in the model, we propose a non-asymptotic model selection procedure supported by strong theoretical guarantees based on an oracle type inequality and a minimax lower bound. The covariance matrix of the model is approximated by a block-diagonal matrix. The structure of this matrix is detected by thresholding the sample covariance matrix, where the threshold is selected using the slope heuristic. Based on the block-diagonal structure of the covariance matrix, the estimation problem is divided into several independent problems: subsequently, the network of dependencies between variables is inferred using the graphical lasso algorithm in each block. The performance of the procedure is illustrated on simulated data. An application to a real gene expression dataset with a limited sample size is also presented: the dimension reduction allows attention to be objectively focused on interactions among smaller subsets of genes, leading to a more parsimonious and interpretable modular network. Contents 1. Introduction 2 2. A method to detect block-diagonal covariance structure 3 3. Theoretical results for non-asymptotic model selection 5 4. Simulation study 8 4.1.