The well-established practice of time series analysis involves estimating deterministic, non-stationary trend and seasonality components followed by learning the residual stochastic, stationary components. Recently, it has been shown that one can learn the deterministic non-stationary components accurately using multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (mSSA) in the absence of a correlated stationary component; meanwhile, in the absence of deterministic non-stationary components, the Autoregressive (AR) stationary component can also be learnt readily, e.g. However, a theoretical underpinning of multi-stage learning algorithms involving both deterministic and stationary components has been absent in the literature despite its pervasiveness. We resolve this open question by establishing desirable theoretical guarantees for a natural two-stage algorithm, where mSSA is first applied to estimate the non-stationary components despite the presence of a correlated stationary AR component, which is subsequently learned from the residual time series. We provide a finite-sample forecasting consistency bound for the proposed algorithm, SAMoSSA, which is data-driven and thus requires minimal parameter tuning.

Abstract--This paper proposes a new method for anomaly detection in time-series data by incorporating the concept of difference subspace into the singular spectrum analysis (SSA). The key idea is to monitor slight temporal variations of the difference subspace between two signal subspaces corresponding to the past and present time-series data, as anomaly score. It is a natural generalization of the conventional SSA-based method which measures the minimum angle between the two signal subspaces as the degree of changes. By replacing the minimum angle with the difference subspace, our method boosts the performance while using the SSA-based framework as it can capture the whole structural difference between the two subspaces in its magnitude and direction. We demonstrate our method's effectiveness through performance evaluations on public time-series datasets. They can be roughly divided into two categories: 1) statisticsbased methods [2], [12], [16]-[19] and 2) deep learning based methods [6], [7], [13], [22].

Geomechanical monitoring of a rock massif is an actively developing branch of geomechanics. It is almost impossible to single out a methodology and approaches for data collection and analysis in developing seismic monitoring systems. In the process of mining in rock massif, changes in the state of structural inhomogeneities are most clearly manifested. Existing natural structural inhomogeneities are revealed, there are movements in discontinuous disturbances, and new technogenic disturbances are formed, which are accompanied by a change in the natural stress state of various blocks of the massif. An important task is to develop a mining forecasting model that can take into account the structural heterogeneity of the rock massif and select the necessary forecast horizon depending on monitoring data The developed method of evaluating the results of monitoring geomechanical processes in the rock massif allowed us to forecast of zones of possible rock bursts.

Time-series data, such as unsteady pressure-sensitive paint (PSP) measurement data, may contain a significant amount of random noise. Thus, in this study, we investigated a noise-reduction method that combines multivariate singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) with low-dimensional data representation. MSSA is a state-space reconstruction technique that utilizes time-delay embedding, and the low-dimensional representation is achieved by projecting data onto the singular value decomposition (SVD) basis. The noise-reduction performance of the proposed method for unsteady PSP data, i.e., the projected MSSA, is compared with that of the truncated SVD method, one of the most employed noise-reduction methods. The result shows that the projected MSSA exhibits better performance in reducing random noise than the truncated SVD method. Additionally, in contrast to that of the truncated SVD method, the performance of the projected MSSA is less sensitive to the truncation rank. Furthermore, the projected MSSA achieves denoising effectively by extracting smooth trajectories in a state space from noisy input data. Expectedly, the projected MSSA will be effective for reducing random noise in not only PSP measurement data, but also various high-dimensional time-series data.

This paper presents a novel time series clustering method, the self-organising eigenspace map (SOEM), based on a generalisation of the well-known self-organising feature map (SOFM). The SOEM operates on the eigenspaces of the embedded covariance structures of time series which are related directly to modes in those time series. Approximate joint diagonalisation acts as a pseudo-metric across these spaces allowing us to generalise the SOFM to a neural network with matrix input. The technique is empirically validated against three sets of experiments; univariate and multivariate time series clustering, and application to (clustered) multi-variate time series forecasting. Results indicate that the technique performs a valid topologically ordered clustering of the time series. The clustering is superior in comparison to standard benchmarks when the data is non-aligned, gives the best clustering stage for when used in forecasting, and can be used with partial/non-overlapping time series, multivariate clustering and produces a topological representation of the time series objects.

We introduce Contrastive Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis, a novel unsupervised method for dimensionality reduction and signal decomposition of time series data. By utilizing an appropriate background dataset, the method transforms a target time series dataset in a way that evinces the sub-signals that are enhanced in the target dataset, as opposed to only those that account for the greatest variance. This shifts the goal from finding signals that explain the most variance to signals that matter the most to the analyst. We demonstrate our method on an illustrative synthetic example, as well as show the utility of our method in the downstream clustering of electrocardiogram signals from the public MHEALTH dataset.