We develop a new, differentially private mean estimator called the balloon mean. The main features of the balloon mean are that it is computationally tractable and enjoys robustness to outlying observations. It is based on an iterative clipping procedure over expanding Mahalanobis balls, or ``balloons.'' The method satisfies zero-concentrated differential privacy and depends on a small number of interpretable tuning parameters. We provide theoretical guarantees under heavy-tailed and contaminated elliptical models, characterizing its statistical performance and robustness to outliers. Extensive simulations demonstrate that the balloon mean is robust to heavy-tailed and contaminated data, and outperforms existing differentially private mean estimators in contaminated settings.

Urban traffic congestion, particularly at intersections, significantly affects travel time, fuel consumption, and emissions. Traditional fixed-time signal control systems often lack the adaptability to effectively manage dynamic traffic patterns. This study explores the application of multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) to optimize traffic signal coordination across multiple intersections within a simulated environment. A simulation was developed to model a network of interconnected intersections with randomly generated vehicle flows to reflect realistic traffic variability. A decentralized MARL controller was implemented in which each traffic signal operates as an autonomous agent, making decisions based on local observations and information from neighboring agents. Performance was evaluated against a baseline fixed-time controller using metrics such as average vehicle wait time and overall throughput. The MARL approach demonstrated statistically significant improvements, including reduced average waiting times and improved throughput. These findings suggest that MARL-based dynamic control strategies hold substantial promise to improve urban traffic management efficiency. More research is recommended to address the challenges of scalability and real-world implementation.

Search and rescue missions are often critical following sudden natural disasters or in high-risk environmental situations. The most challenging search and rescue missions involve difficult-to-access terrains, such as dense forests with high occlusion. Deploying unmanned aerial vehicles for exploration can significantly enhance search effectiveness, facilitate access to challenging environments, and reduce search time. However, in dense forests, the effectiveness of unmanned aerial vehicles depends on their ability to capture clear views of the ground, necessitating a robust search strategy to optimize camera positioning and perspective. This work presents an optimized planning strategy and an efficient algorithm for the next best view problem in occluded environments. Two novel optimization heuristics, a geometry heuristic, and a visibility heuristic, are proposed to enhance search performance by selecting optimal camera viewpoints. Comparative evaluations in both simulated and real-world settings reveal that the visibility heuristic achieves greater performance, identifying over 90% of hidden objects in simulated forests and offering 10% better detection rates than the geometry heuristic. Additionally, real-world experiments demonstrate that the visibility heuristic provides better coverage under the canopy, highlighting its potential for improving search and rescue missions in occluded environments.

In binary classification applications, conservative decision-making that allows for abstention can be advantageous. To this end, we introduce a novel approach that determines the optimal cutoff interval for risk scores, which can be directly available or derived from fitted models. Within this interval, the algorithm refrains from making decisions, while outside the interval, classification accuracy is maximized. Our approach is inspired by support vector machines (SVM), but differs in that it minimizes the classification margin rather than maximizing it. We provide the theoretical optimal solution to this problem, which holds important practical implications. Our proposed method not only supports conservative decision-making but also inherently results in a risk-coverage curve. Together with the area under the curve (AUC), this curve can serve as a comprehensive performance metric for evaluating and comparing classifiers, akin to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. To investigate and illustrate our approach, we conduct both simulation studies and a real-world case study in the context of diagnosing prostate cancer.

We present a multi-pronged approach to improving the time and energy required to meet these demands. We show the ability of a custom machine learning surrogate model to predict the dynamics of heat propagation orders of magnitude faster than state-of-the-art CFD software for this application. We also demonstrate how a guided optimisation procedure can decrease the number of simulations required to meet an objective; using lightweight models to decide which simulations to run, we see a tenfold reduction when locating the most dangerous location for a fire to occur within a building based on the impact of smoke on visibility. Finally we present a framework and product, Simvue, through which we access these tools along with a host of automatic organisational and tracking features which enables future reuse of data and more savings through better management of simulations and combating redundancy. 2 INTRODUCTION A key objective in fire safety design is to ensure that occupants of a building are able to vacate safely during an emergency. Removing smoke through exhaust systems which activate after detection of a fire is one approach to improving the safety of occupants during egress.

We introduce a new survival tree method for censored failure time data that incorporates three key advancements over traditional approaches. First, we develop a more computationally efficient splitting procedure that effectively mitigates the end-cut preference problem, and we propose an intersected validation strategy to reduce the variable selection bias inherent in greedy searches. Second, we present a novel framework for determining tree structures through fused regularization. In combination with conventional pruning, this approach enables the merging of non-adjacent terminal nodes, producing more parsimonious and interpretable models. Third, we address inference by constructing valid confidence intervals for median survival times within the subgroups identified by the final tree. To achieve this, we apply bootstrap-based bias correction to standard errors. The proposed method is assessed through extensive simulation studies and illustrated with data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study.

The ability of humans to detect and respond to others' emotions is fundamental to understanding social behavior. Here, agents are instantiated with emotion classifiers of varying accuracy to study the impact of perceptual accuracy on emergent emotional and spatial behavior. Agents are visually represented with face photos from the KDEF database and endowed with one of three classifiers trained on the JAFFE (poor), CK+ (medium), or KDEF (high) datasets. Agents communicate locally on a 2D toroidal lattice, perceiving neighbors' emotional state based on their classifier and responding with movement toward perceived positive emotions and away from perceived negative emotions. Note that the agents respond to perceived, instead of ground-truth, emotions, introducing systematic misperception and frustration. A battery of experiments is carried out on homogeneous and heterogeneous populations and scenarios with repeated emotional shocks. Results show that low-accuracy classifiers on the part of the agent reliably result in diminished trust, emotional disintegration into sadness, and disordered social organization. By contrast, the agent that develops high accuracy develops hardy emotional clusters and resilience to emotional disruptions. Even in emotionally neutral scenarios, misperception is enough to generate segregation and disintegration of cohesion. These findings underscore the fact that biases or imprecision in emotion recognition may significantly warp social processes and disrupt emotional integration.

Bike-sharing systems are emerging in various cities as a new ecofriendly transportation system. In these systems, spatiotemporally varying user demands lead to imbalanced inventory at bicycle stations, resulting in additional relocation costs. Therefore, it is essential to manage user demand through optimal dynamic pricing for the system. However, optimal pricing design for such a system is challenging because the system involves users with diverse backgrounds and their probabilistic choices. To address this problem, we develop a differentiable agent-based simulation to rapidly design dynamic pricing in bike-sharing systems, achieving balanced bicycle inventory despite spatiotemporally heterogeneous trips and probabilistic user decisions. We first validate our approach against conventional methods through numerical experiments involving 25 bicycle stations and five time slots, yielding 100 parameters. Compared to the conventional methods, our approach obtains a more accurate solution with a 73% to 78% reduction in loss while achieving more than a 100-fold increase in convergence speed. We further validate our approach on a large-scale urban bike-sharing system scenario involving 289 bicycle stations, resulting in a total of 1156 parameters. Through simulations using the obtained pricing policies, we confirm that these policies can naturally induce balanced inventory without any manual relocation. Additionally, we find that the cost of discounts to induce the balanced inventory can be minimized by setting appropriate initial conditions.

In language model training, it is desirable to equip models with capabilities from various tasks. However, it is not clear how to directly obtain the right data mixtures for these capabilities as the relationship between data and tasks is difficult to be modeled. In this work, we observe that checkpoint models exhibit emerging capabilities at different points in the training trajectory. Often, the training process saves checkpoints as artifacts that are under-utilized as a source of in-training data signals. We identify these artifact models based on their respective capabilities on the benchmarks and leverage them as data mixers by using their aggregated first-order influence approximation over source data. We demonstrated on eight reasoning benchmarks that the proposed framework shows significant improvements in the pretraining setting, with performance improvements of up to 1.93%. Overall, this shows the potential of checkpoint models to enhance data quality and optimize data mixtures.

In the age of AI, human commanders need to use the computational powers available in today's environment to simulate a very large number of scenarios. Within each scenario, situations occur where different decision design options could have ethical consequences. Making these decisions reliant on human judgement is both counter-productive to the aim of exploring very large number of scenarios in a timely manner and infeasible when considering the workload needed to involve humans in each of these choices. In this paper, we move human judgement outside the simulation decision cycle. Basically, the human will design the ethical metric space, leaving it to the simulated environment to explore the space. When the simulation completes its testing cycles, the testing environment will come back to the human commander with a few options to select from. The human commander will then exercise human-judgement to select the most appropriate course of action, which will then get executed accordingly. We assume that the problem of designing metrics that are sufficiently granular to assess the ethical implications of decisions is solved. Subsequently, the fundamental problem we look at in this paper is how to weight ethical decisions during the running of these simulations; that is, how to dynamically weight the ethical attributes when agents are faced with decision options with ethical implications during generative simulations. The multi-criteria decision making literature has started to look at nearby problems, where the concept of entropy has been used to determine the weights during aggregation. We draw from that literature different approaches to automatically calculate the weights for ethical attributes during simulation-based testing and evaluation.