scoring system
Counter-Empirical Attacking based on Adversarial Reinforcement Learning for Time-Relevant Scoring System
Sun, Xiangguo, Cheng, Hong, Dong, Hang, Qiao, Bo, Qin, Si, Lin, Qingwei
Scoring systems are commonly seen for platforms in the era of big data. From credit scoring systems in financial services to membership scores in E-commerce shopping platforms, platform managers use such systems to guide users towards the encouraged activity pattern, and manage resources more effectively and more efficiently thereby. To establish such scoring systems, several "empirical criteria" are firstly determined, followed by dedicated top-down design for each factor of the score, which usually requires enormous effort to adjust and tune the scoring function in the new application scenario. What's worse, many fresh projects usually have no ground-truth or any experience to evaluate a reasonable scoring system, making the designing even harder. To reduce the effort of manual adjustment of the scoring function in every new scoring system, we innovatively study the scoring system from the preset empirical criteria without any ground truth, and propose a novel framework to improve the system from scratch. In this paper, we propose a "counter-empirical attacking" mechanism that can generate "attacking" behavior traces and try to break the empirical rules of the scoring system. Then an adversarial "enhancer" is applied to evaluate the scoring system and find the improvement strategy. By training the adversarial learning problem, a proper scoring function can be learned to be robust to the attacking activity traces that are trying to violate the empirical criteria. Extensive experiments have been conducted on two scoring systems including a shared computing resource platform and a financial credit system. The experimental results have validated the effectiveness of our proposed framework.
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- Banking & Finance > Credit (0.68)
Creating a Systematic ESG (Environmental Social Governance) Scoring System Using Social Network Analysis and Machine Learning for More Sustainable Company Practices
Environmental Social Governance (ESG) is a widely used metric that measures the sustainability of a company practices. Currently, ESG is determined using self-reported corporate filings, which allows companies to portray themselves in an artificially positive light. As a result, ESG evaluation is subjective and inconsistent across raters, giving executives mixed signals on what to improve. This project aims to create a data-driven ESG evaluation system that can provide better guidance and more systemized scores by incorporating social sentiment. Social sentiment allows for more balanced perspectives which directly highlight public opinion, helping companies create more focused and impactful initiatives. To build this, Python web scrapers were developed to collect data from Wikipedia, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Google News for the S&P 500 companies. Data was then cleaned and passed through NLP algorithms to obtain sentiment scores for ESG subcategories. Using these features, machine-learning algorithms were trained and calibrated to S&P Global ESG Ratings to test their predictive capabilities. The Random-Forest model was the strongest model with a mean absolute error of 13.4% and a correlation of 26.1% (p-value 0.0372), showing encouraging results. Overall, measuring ESG social sentiment across sub-categories can help executives focus efforts on areas people care about most. Furthermore, this data-driven methodology can provide ratings for companies without coverage, allowing more socially responsible firms to thrive.
Learning Optimal Fair Scoring Systems for Multi-Class Classification
Rouzot, Julien, Ferry, Julien, Huguet, Marie-José
Machine Learning models are increasingly used for decision making, in particular in high-stakes applications such as credit scoring, medicine or recidivism prediction. However, there are growing concerns about these models with respect to their lack of interpretability and the undesirable biases they can generate or reproduce. While the concepts of interpretability and fairness have been extensively studied by the scientific community in recent years, few works have tackled the general multi-class classification problem under fairness constraints, and none of them proposes to generate fair and interpretable models for multi-class classification. In this paper, we use Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) techniques to produce inherently interpretable scoring systems under sparsity and fairness constraints, for the general multi-class classification setup. Our work generalizes the SLIM (Supersparse Linear Integer Models) framework that was proposed by Rudin and Ustun to learn optimal scoring systems for binary classification. The use of MILP techniques allows for an easy integration of diverse operational constraints (such as, but not restricted to, fairness or sparsity), but also for the building of certifiably optimal models (or sub-optimal models with bounded optimality gap).
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Machine Learning Improves Prediction of Exploited Vulnerabilities
Researchers behind a public effort to create a way of predicting the exploitation of vulnerabilities have announced a new machine-learning model that improves its prediction capabilities by 82% -- a significant boost. Organizations can access the model, which will go live on March 7, via an API to identify the highest scoring software flaws at any moment in time. The third version of the Exploit Prediction Scoring System (EPSS) uses more than 1,400 features -- such as the age of the vulnerability, whether it is remotely exploitable, and whether a specific vendor is affected -- to successfully predict which software issues will be exploited in the next 30 days. Security teams that prioritize vulnerability remediation based on the scoring system could reduce their remediation workload to an eighth of the effort by using the latest version of the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS), according to a paper on EPSS version 3 published on arXiv last week. EPSS can be used as a tool to reduce workloads on security teams, while enabling companies to remediate the vulnerabilities that represent the most risk, says Jay Jacobs, chief data scientist at Cyentia Institute and first author on the paper.
Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: Conference: Scoring Systems: At the Extreme of Interpretable Machine Learning. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting.
This conference is presented as part of the Montreal Speaker Series in the Ethics of AI. SPEAKER Cynthia Rudin Professor of computer science, electrical and computer engineering, statistical science, and biostatistics & bioinformatics at Duke University With widespread use of machine learning, there have been serious societal consequences from using black box models for high-stakes decisions, including flawed bail and parole decisions in criminal justice, flawed models in healthcare, and black box loan decisions in finance. Interpretability of machine learning models is critical in high stakes decisions. In this talk, I will focus on one of the most fundamental and important problems in the field of interpretable machine learning: optimal scoring systems. Scoring systems are sparse linear models with integer coefficients. Such models first started to be used ~100 years ago. Generally, such models are created without data, or are constructed by manual feature selection and rounding logistic regression coefficients, but these manual techniques sacrifice performance; humans are not naturally adept at high-dimensional optimization. I will present the first practical algorithm for building optimal scoring systems from data. This method has been used for several important applications to healthcare and criminal justice. More information: https://sites.google.com/view/dmartin/ai-ethics/speakers?#h.nihlg6vib2nz
Supersparse Linear Integer Models for Predictive Scoring Systems
Ustun, Berk, Traca, Stefano, Rudin, Cynthia
We introduce Supersparse Linear Integer Models (SLIM) as a tool to create scoring systems for binary classification. We derive theoretical bounds on the true risk of SLIM scoring systems, and present experimental results to show that SLIM scoring systems are accurate, sparse, and interpretable classification models.
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