Background: Determining an adequate sample size is essential for developing reliable and generalisable clinical prediction models, yet practical guidance on selecting appropriate methods remains limited. Existing analytical and simulation-based approaches often rely on restrictive assumptions and focus on mean-based criteria. We present and validate pmsims, an R package that uses Gaussian process surrogate modelling to provide a flexible and computationally efficient simulation-based framework for sample size determination across diverse prediction settings. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive simulation study with two aims. First, we compared three search engines implemented in pmsims: a Gaussian process-based adaptive method, a deterministic bisection method, and a hybrid approach, across binary, continuous, and survival outcomes. Second, we benchmarked the best-performing pmsims engine against existing analytical (pmsampsize) and simulation-based (samplesizedev) methods, evaluating recommended sample sizes, computational time, and achieved performance on large independent validation datasets. Results: The Gaussian process-based method consistently produced the most stable sample size estimates, particularly in low-signal, high-dimensional settings. In benchmarking, pmsims achieved performance close to prespecified targets across all outcome types, matching simulation-based approaches and outperforming analytical methods in more challenging scenarios. Conclusions: pmsims provides an efficient and flexible framework for principled sample size planning in clinical prediction modelling, requiring fewer model evaluations than non-adaptive simulation approaches.

This paper concerns the problem of matrix completion, which is to estimate a matrix from observations in a small subset of indices. We propose a calibrated spectrum elastic net method with a sum of the nuclear and Frobenius penalties and develop an iterative algorithm to solve the convex minimization problem. The iterative algorithm alternates between imputing the missing entries in the incomplete matrix by the current guess and estimating the matrix by a scaled soft-thresholding singular value decomposition of the imputed matrix until the resulting matrix converges. A calibration step follows to correct the bias caused by the Frobenius penalty. Under proper coherence conditions and for suitable penalties levels, we prove that the proposed estimator achieves an error bound of nearly optimal order and in proportion to the noise level. This provides a unified analysis of the noisy and noiseless matrix completion problems. Simulation results are presented to compare our proposal with previous ones.

We investigate the tradeofi"s among network complexity, training set size, and sta(cid:173) tistical performance of feedforward neural networks so as to allow a reasoned choice of network architecture in the face of limited training data. Nets are functions 7](x; w), parameterized by their weight vector w E W Rd, which take as input points x E Rk. For classifiers, network output is restricted to {a, 1} while for fore(cid:173) casting it may be any real number. The architecture of all nets under consideration is N, whose complexity may be gauged by its Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension v, the size of the largest set of inputs the architecture can classify in any desired way ('shatter'). Nets 7] EN are chosen on the basis of a training set T {(Xi, YiHr l. These n samples are i.i.d.

In this paper, we investigate the sample size requirement for exact recovery of a high order tensor of low rank from a subset of its entries. We show that a gradient descent algorithm with initial value obtained from a spectral method can, in particular, reconstruct a ${d\times d\times d}$ tensor of multilinear ranks $(r,r,r)$ with high probability from as few as $O(r^{7/2}d^{3/2}\log^{7/2}d+r^7d\log^6d)$ entries. In the case when the ranks $r=O(1)$, our sample size requirement matches those for nuclear norm minimization (Yuan and Zhang, 2016a), or alternating least squares assuming orthogonal decomposability (Jain and Oh, 2014). Unlike these earlier approaches, however, our method is efficient to compute, easy to implement, and does not impose extra structures on the tensor. Numerical results are presented to further demonstrate the merits of the proposed approach.

Heterogeneity is often natural in many contemporary applications involving massive data. While posing new challenges to effective learning, it can play a crucial role in powering meaningful scientific discoveries through the understanding of important differences among subpopulations of interest. In this paper, we exploit multiple networks with Gaussian graphs to encode the connectivity patterns of a large number of features on the subpopulations. To uncover the heterogeneity of these structures across subpopulations, we suggest a new framework of tuning-free heterogeneity pursuit (THP) via large-scale inference, where the number of networks is allowed to diverge. In particular, two new tests, the chi-based test and the linear functional-based test, are introduced and their asymptotic null distributions are established. Under mild regularity conditions, we establish that both tests are optimal in achieving the testable region boundary and the sample size requirement for the latter test is minimal. Both theoretical guarantees and the tuning-free feature stem from efficient multiple-network estimation by our newly suggested approach of heterogeneous group square-root Lasso (HGSL) for high-dimensional multi-response regression with heterogeneous noises. To solve this convex program, we further introduce a tuning-free algorithm that is scalable and enjoys provable convergence to the global optimum. Both computational and theoretical advantages of our procedure are elucidated through simulation and real data examples.

Many problems can be formulated as recovering a low-rank tensor. Although an increasingly common task, tensor recovery remains a challenging problem because of the delicacy associated with the decomposition of higher order tensors. To overcome these difficulties, existing approaches often proceed by unfolding tensors into matrices and then apply techniques for matrix completion. We show here that such matricization fails to exploit the tensor structure and may lead to suboptimal procedure. More specifically, we investigate a convex optimization approach to tensor completion by directly minimizing a tensor nuclear norm and prove that this leads to an improved sample size requirement. To establish our results, we develop a series of algebraic and probabilistic techniques such as characterization of subdifferetial for tensor nuclear norm and concentration inequalities for tensor martingales, which may be of independent interests and could be useful in other tensor related problems.

This paper concerns the problem of matrix completion, which is to estimate a matrix from observations in a small subset of indices. We propose a calibrated spectrum elastic net method with a sum of the nuclear and Frobenius penalties and develop an iterative algorithm to solve the convex minimization problem. The iterative algorithm alternates between imputing the missing entries in the incomplete matrix by the current guess and estimating the matrix by a scaled soft-thresholding singular value decomposition of the imputed matrix until the resulting matrix converges. A calibration step follows to correct the bias caused by the Frobenius penalty. Under proper coherence conditions and for suitable penalties levels, we prove that the proposed estimator achieves an error bound of nearly optimal order and in proportion to the noise level. This provides a unified analysis of the noisy and noiseless matrix completion problems. Simulation results are presented to compare our proposal with previous ones.

This paper concerns the problem of matrix completion, which is to estimate a matrix from observations in a small subset of indices. We propose a calibrated spectrum elastic net method with a sum of the nuclear and Frobenius penalties and develop an iterative algorithm to solve the convex minimization problem. The iterative algorithm alternates between imputing the missing entries in the incomplete matrix by the current guess and estimating the matrix by a scaled soft-thresholding singular value decomposition of the imputed matrix until the resulting matrix converges. A calibration step follows to correct the bias caused by the Frobenius penalty. Under proper coherence conditions and for suitable penalties levels, we prove that the proposed estimator achieves an error bound of nearly optimal order and in proportion to the noise level. This provides a unified analysis of the noisy and noiseless matrix completion problems. Simulation results are presented to compare our proposal with previous ones.

We estimate the number of training samples required to ensure that the performance of a neural network on its training data matches that obtained when fresh data is applied to the network. Existing estimates are higher by orders of magnitude than practice indicates. This work seeks to narrow the gap between theory and practice by transforming the problem into determining the distribution of the supremum of a random field in the space of weight vectors, which in turn is attacked by application of a recent technique called the Poisson clumping heuristic.

We estimate the number of training samples required to ensure that the performance of a neural network on its training data matches that obtained when fresh data is applied to the network. Existing estimates are higher by orders of magnitude than practice indicates. This work seeks to narrow the gap between theory and practice by transforming the problem into determining the distribution of the supremum of a random field in the space of weight vectors, which in turn is attacked by application of a recent technique called the Poisson clumping heuristic.