rul estimation
CARLE: A Hybrid Deep-Shallow Learning Framework for Robust and Explainable RUL Estimation of Rolling Element Bearings
Prognostic Health Management (PHM) systems monitor and predict equipment health. A key task is Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation, which predicts how long a component, such as a rolling element bearing, will operate before failure. Many RUL methods exist but often lack generalizability and robustness under changing operating conditions. This paper introduces CARLE, a hybrid AI framework that combines deep and shallow learning to address these challenges. CARLE uses Res-CNN and Res-LSTM blocks with multi-head attention and residual connections to capture spatial and temporal degradation patterns, and a Random Forest Regressor (RFR) for stable, accurate RUL prediction. A compact preprocessing pipeline applies Gaussian filtering for noise reduction and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) for time-frequency feature extraction. We evaluate CARLE on the XJTU-SY and PRONOSTIA bearing datasets. Ablation studies measure each component's contribution, while noise and cross-domain experiments test robustness and generalization. Comparative results show CARLE outperforms several state-of-the-art methods, especially under dynamic conditions. Finally, we analyze model interpretability with LIME and SHAP to assess transparency and trustworthiness.
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A Quantile Regression Approach for Remaining Useful Life Estimation with State Space Models
Frizzo, Davide, Borsatti, Francesco, Susto, Gian Antonio
Predictive Maintenance (PdM) is pivotal in Industry 4.0 and 5.0, proactively enhancing efficiency through accurate equipment Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction, thus optimizing maintenance scheduling and reducing unexpected failures and premature interventions. This paper introduces a novel RUL estimation approach leveraging State Space Models (SSM) for efficient long-term sequence modeling. To handle model uncertainty, Simoultaneous Quantile Regression (SQR) is integrated into the SSM, enabling multiple quantile estimations. The proposed method is benchmarked against traditional sequence modelling techniques (LSTM, Transformer, Informer) using the C-MAPSS dataset. Results demonstrate superior accuracy and computational efficiency of SSM models, underscoring their potential for high-stakes industrial applications.
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Rashomon perspective for measuring uncertainty in the survival predictive maintenance models
Yardimci, Yigitcan, Cavus, Mustafa
The prediction of the Remaining Useful Life of aircraft engines is a critical area in high-reliability sectors such as aerospace and defense. Early failure predictions help ensure operational continuity, reduce maintenance costs, and prevent unexpected failures. Traditional regression models struggle with censored data, which can lead to biased predictions. Survival models, on the other hand, effectively handle censored data, improving predictive accuracy in maintenance processes. This paper introduces a novel approach based on the Rashomon perspective, which considers multiple models that achieve similar performance rather than relying on a single best model. This enables uncertainty quantification in survival probability predictions and enhances decision-making in predictive maintenance. The Rashomon survival curve was introduced to represent the range of survival probability estimates, providing insights into model agreement and uncertainty over time. The results on the CMAPSS dataset demonstrate that relying solely on a single model for RUL estimation may increase risk in some scenarios. The censoring levels significantly impact prediction uncertainty, with longer censoring times leading to greater variability in survival probabilities. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating model multiplicity in predictive maintenance frameworks to achieve more reliable and robust failure predictions. This paper contributes to uncertainty quantification in RUL prediction and highlights the Rashomon perspective as a powerful tool for predictive modeling.
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CNN-LSTM Hybrid Deep Learning Model for Remaining Useful Life Estimation
Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a component or a system is defined as the length from the current time to the end of the useful life. Accurate RUL estimation plays a crucial role in Predictive Maintenance applications. Traditional regression methods, both linear and non-linear, have struggled to achieve high accuracy in this domain. While Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have shown improved accuracy, they often overlook the sequential nature of the data, relying instead on features derived from sliding windows. Since RUL prediction inherently involves multivariate time series analysis, robust sequence learning is essential. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach combining Convolutional Neural Networks with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks for RUL estimation. Although CNN-based LSTM models have been applied to sequence prediction tasks in financial forecasting, this is the first attempt to adopt this approach for RUL estimation in prognostics. In this approach, CNN is first employed to efficiently extract features from the data, followed by LSTM, which uses these extracted features to predict RUL. This method effectively leverages sensor sequence information, uncovering hidden patterns within the data, even under multiple operating conditions and fault scenarios. Our results demonstrate that the hybrid CNN-LSTM model achieves the highest accuracy, offering a superior score compared to the other methods.
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The State of Lithium-Ion Battery Health Prognostics in the CPS Era
Shinde, Gaurav, Mohapatra, Rohan, Krishan, Pooja, Garg, Harish, Prabhu, Srikanth, Das, Sanchari, Masum, Mohammad, Sengupta, Saptarshi
Lithium-ion batteries (Li-ion) have revolutionized energy storage technology, becoming integral to our daily lives by powering a diverse range of devices and applications. Their high energy density, fast power response, recyclability, and mobility advantages have made them the preferred choice for numerous sectors. This paper explores the seamless integration of Prognostics and Health Management within batteries, presenting a multidisciplinary approach that enhances the reliability, safety, and performance of these powerhouses. Remaining useful life (RUL), a critical concept in prognostics, is examined in depth, emphasizing its role in predicting component failure before it occurs. The paper reviews various RUL prediction methods, from traditional models to cutting-edge data-driven techniques. Furthermore, it highlights the paradigm shift toward deep learning architectures within the field of Li-ion battery health prognostics, elucidating the pivotal role of deep learning in addressing battery system complexities. Practical applications of PHM across industries are also explored, offering readers insights into real-world implementations.This paper serves as a comprehensive guide, catering to both researchers and practitioners in the field of Li-ion battery PHM.
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A Change Point Detection Integrated Remaining Useful Life Estimation Model under Variable Operating Conditions
Arunan, Anushiya, Qin, Yan, Li, Xiaoli, Yuen, Chau
By informing the onset of the degradation process, health status evaluation serves as a significant preliminary step for reliable remaining useful life (RUL) estimation of complex equipment. This paper proposes a novel temporal dynamics learning-based model for detecting change points of individual devices, even under variable operating conditions, and utilises the learnt change points to improve the RUL estimation accuracy. During offline model development, the multivariate sensor data are decomposed to learn fused temporal correlation features that are generalisable and representative of normal operation dynamics across multiple operating conditions. Monitoring statistics and control limit thresholds for normal behaviour are dynamically constructed from these learnt temporal features for the unsupervised detection of device-level change points. The detected change points then inform the degradation data labelling for training a long short-term memory (LSTM)-based RUL estimation model. During online monitoring, the temporal correlation dynamics of a query device is monitored for breach of the control limit derived in offline training. If a change point is detected, the device's RUL is estimated with the well-trained offline model for early preventive action. Using C-MAPSS turbofan engines as the case study, the proposed method improved the accuracy by 5.6\% and 7.5\% for two scenarios with six operating conditions, when compared to existing LSTM-based RUL estimation models that do not consider heterogeneous change points.
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De-SaTE: Denoising Self-attention Transformer Encoders for Li-ion Battery Health Prognostics
Shinde, Gaurav, Mohapatra, Rohan, Krishan, Pooja, Sengupta, Saptarshi
The usage of Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries has gained widespread popularity across various industries, from powering portable electronic devices to propelling electric vehicles and supporting energy storage systems. A central challenge in Li-ion battery reliability lies in accurately predicting their Remaining Useful Life (RUL), which is a critical measure for proactive maintenance and predictive analytics. This study presents a novel approach that harnesses the power of multiple denoising modules, each trained to address specific types of noise commonly encountered in battery data. Specifically, a denoising auto-encoder and a wavelet denoiser are used to generate encoded/decomposed representations, which are subsequently processed through dedicated self-attention transformer encoders. After extensive experimentation on NASA and CALCE data, a broad spectrum of health indicator values are estimated under a set of diverse noise patterns. The reported error metrics on these data are on par with or better than the state-of-the-art reported in recent literature.
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A Mapping Study of Machine Learning Methods for Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Lead-Acid Batteries
Chevtchenko, Sérgio F, Rocha, Elisson da Silva, Cruz, Bruna, de Andrade, Ermeson Carneiro, de Araújo, Danilo Ricardo Barbosa
Energy storage solutions play an increasingly important role in modern infrastructure and lead-acid batteries are among the most commonly used in the rechargeable category. Due to normal degradation over time, correctly determining the battery's State of Health (SoH) and Remaining Useful Life (RUL) contributes to enhancing predictive maintenance, reliability, and longevity of battery systems. Besides improving the cost savings, correct estimation of the SoH can lead to reduced pollution though reuse of retired batteries. This paper presents a mapping study of the state-of-the-art in machine learning methods for estimating the SoH and RUL of lead-acid batteries. These two indicators are critical in the battery management systems of electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and other applications that rely heavily on this battery technology. In this study, we analyzed the types of machine learning algorithms employed for estimating SoH and RUL, and evaluated their performance in terms of accuracy and inference time. Additionally, this mapping identifies and analyzes the most commonly used combinations of sensors in specific applications, such as vehicular batteries. The mapping concludes by highlighting potential gaps and opportunities for future research, which lays the foundation for further advancements in the field.
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Estimation of Remaining Useful Life and SOH of Lithium Ion Batteries (For EV Vehicles)
Lithium-ion batteries are widely used in various applications, including portable electronic devices, electric vehicles, and renewable energy storage systems. Accurately estimating the remaining useful life of these batteries is crucial for ensuring their optimal performance, preventing unexpected failures, and reducing maintenance costs. In this paper, we present a comprehensive review of the existing approaches for estimating the remaining useful life of lithium-ion batteries, including data-driven methods, physics-based models, and hybrid approaches. We also propose a novel approach based on machine learning techniques for accurately predicting the remaining useful life of lithium-ion batteries. Our approach utilizes various battery performance parameters, including voltage, current, and temperature, to train a predictive model that can accurately estimate the remaining useful life of the battery. We evaluate the performance of our approach on a dataset of lithium-ion battery cycles and compare it with other state-of-the-art methods. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach in accurately estimating the remaining useful life of lithium-ion batteries.
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Self-Supervised Learning for Data Scarcity in a Fatigue Damage Prognostic Problem
Akrim, Anass, Gogu, Christian, Vingerhoeds, Rob, Salaün, Michel
With the increasing availability of data for Prognostics and Health Management (PHM), Deep Learning (DL) techniques are now the subject of considerable attention for this application, often achieving more accurate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) predictions. However, one of the major challenges for DL techniques resides in the difficulty of obtaining large amounts of labelled data on industrial systems. To overcome this lack of labelled data, an emerging learning technique is considered in our work: Self-Supervised Learning, a sub-category of unsupervised learning approaches. This paper aims to investigate whether pre-training DL models in a self-supervised way on unlabelled sensors data can be useful for RUL estimation with only Few-Shots Learning, i.e. with scarce labelled data. In this research, a fatigue damage prognostics problem is addressed, through the estimation of the RUL of aluminum alloy panels (typical of aerospace structures) subject to fatigue cracks from strain gauge data. Synthetic datasets composed of strain data are used allowing to extensively investigate the influence of the dataset size on the predictive performance. Results show that the self-supervised pre-trained models are able to significantly outperform the non-pre-trained models in downstream RUL prediction task, and with less computational expense, showing promising results in prognostic tasks when only limited labelled data is available.
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