Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular way to tackle optimization problems with expensive objective function evaluations, but has mostly been applied to unconstrained problems.

We consider the task of optimizing an objective function subject to inequality constraints when both the objective and the constraints are expensive to evaluate. Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular way to tackle optimization problems with expensive objective function evaluations, but has mostly been applied to unconstrained problems. Several BO approaches have been proposed to address expensive constraints but are limited to greedy strategies maximizing immediate reward. To address this limitation, we propose a lookahead approach that selects the next evaluation in order to maximize the long-term feasible reduction of the objective function. We present numerical experiments demonstrating the performance improvements of such a lookahead approach compared to several greedy BO algorithms, including constrained expected improvement (EIC) and predictive entropy search with constraint (PESC).

In this paper we consider a transformer with an $n$-gram structure, such as the one underlying ChatGPT. The transformer provides next word probabilities, which can be used to generate word sequences. We consider methods for computing word sequences that are highly likely, based on these probabilities. Computing the optimal (i.e., most likely) word sequence starting with a given initial state is an intractable problem, so we propose methods to compute highly likely sequences of $N$ words in time that is a low order polynomial in $N$ and in the vocabulary size of the $n$-gram. These methods are based on the rollout approach from approximate dynamic programming, a form of single policy iteration, which can improve the performance of any given heuristic policy. In our case we use a greedy heuristic that generates as next word one that has the highest probability. We show with analysis, examples, and computational experimentation that our methods are capable of generating highly likely sequences with a modest increase in computation over the greedy heuristic. While our analysis and experiments are focused on Markov chains of the type arising in transformer and ChatGPT-like models, our methods apply to general finite-state Markov chains, and related inference applications of Hidden Markov Models (HMM), where Viterbi decoding is used extensively.

We consider the problem of optimizing an expensive objective function when a finite budget of total evaluations is prescribed. In that context, the optimal solution strategy for Bayesian optimization can be formulated as a dynamic programming instance.

We provide a unifying approximate dynamic programming framework that applies to a broad variety of problems involving sequential estimation. We consider first the construction of surrogate cost functions for the purposes of optimization, and we focus on the special case of Bayesian optimization, using the rollout algorithm and some of its variations. We then discuss the more general case of sequential estimation of a random vector using optimal measurement selection, and its application to problems of stochastic and adaptive control. We distinguish between adaptive control of deterministic and stochastic systems: the former are better suited for the use of rollout, while the latter are well suited for the use of rollout with certainty equivalence approximations. As an example of the deterministic case, we discuss sequential decoding problems, and a rollout algorithm for the approximate solution of the Wordle and Mastermind puzzles, recently developed in the paper [BBB22].

In this paper, we discuss a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach towards a class of sequential decision problems, exemplified for the popular Wordle puzzle that appears daily in the New York Times. Wordle involves a list of 5-letter mystery words, which is a subset of a larger list of guess words. A word is selected at random from the mystery list, and the objective is to find that word by sequentially selecting no more than six words from the guess list. Each guess word selection provides information about the letters contained in the hidden mystery word according to a given set of rules, which involves color coding of letters shared by the guess word and the mystery word. We will adopt a more general point of view, by considering a broad class of problems that include Wordle as a special case. In particular, the problems that we consider include sequential search situations, where the objective is to guess correctly an unknown object from a given finite set of objects (the set of mystery words in the Wordle context), by using a sequence of decisions from a finite set (the set of guess words in Wordle), which result in a sequence of corresponding observations (the information outcomes of the guesses in Wordle). We aim to minimize some cost function, such as the expected number of observations required to determine the unknown object. Within the search context just described, some basic information theory concepts are relevant, which have already been applied to Wordle, and are important for our methodology.

Dimitri Bertsekas† Abstract In this paper we propose an on-line policy iteration (PI) algorithm for finite-state infinite horizon discounted dynamic programming, whereby the policy improvement operation is done on-line, only for the states that are encountered during operation of the system. This allows the continuous updating/improvement of the current policy, thus resulting in a form of on-line PI that incorporates the improved controls into the current policy as new states and controls are generated. The algorithm converges in a finite number of stages to a type of locally optimal policy, and suggests the possibility of variants of PI and multiagent PI where the policy improvement is simplified. Moreover, the algorithm can be used with on-line replanning, and is also well-suited for on-line PI algorithms with value and policy approximations. The common characteristic of these variants is that, in addition to being suitable for on-line implementation, they are simplified in two ways: (a) They perform policy improvement operations only for the states that are encountered during the on-line operation of the system.

In this paper we consider infinite horizon discounted dynamic programming problems with finite state and control spaces, partial state observations, and a multiagent structure. We discuss and compare algorithms that simultaneously or sequentially optimize the agents' controls by using multistep lookahead, truncated rollout with a known base policy, and a terminal cost function approximation. Our methods specifically address the computational challenges of partially observable multiagent problems. In particular: 1) We consider rollout algorithms that dramatically reduce required computation while preserving the key cost improvement property of the standard rollout method. The per-step computational requirements for our methods are on the order of $O(Cm)$ as compared with $O(C^m)$ for standard rollout, where $C$ is the maximum cardinality of the constraint set for the control component of each agent, and $m$ is the number of agents. 2) We show that our methods can be applied to challenging problems with a graph structure, including a class of robot repair problems whereby multiple robots collaboratively inspect and repair a system under partial information. 3) We provide a simulation study that compares our methods with existing methods, and demonstrate that our methods can handle larger and more complex partially observable multiagent problems (state space size $10^{37}$ and control space size $10^{7}$, respectively). Finally, we incorporate our multiagent rollout algorithms as building blocks in an approximate policy iteration scheme, where successive rollout policies are approximated by using neural network classifiers. While this scheme requires a strictly off-line implementation, it works well in our computational experiments and produces additional significant performance improvement over the single online rollout iteration method.

We consider an extension of the rollout algorithm that applies to constrained deterministic dynamic programming, including challenging combinatorial optimization problems. The algorithm relies on a suboptimal policy, called base heuristic. Under suitable assumptions, we show that if the base heuristic produces a feasible solution, the rollout algorithm has a cost improvement property: it produces a feasible solution, whose cost is no worse than the base heuristic's cost. We then focus on multiagent problems, where the control at each stage consists of multiple components (one per agent), which are coupled either through the cost function or the constraints or both. We show that the cost improvement property is maintained with an alternative implementation that has greatly reduced computational requirements, and makes possible the use of rollout in problems with many agents. We demonstrate this alternative algorithm by applying it to layered graph problems that involve both a spatial and a temporal structure. We consider in some detail a prominent example of such problems: multidimensional assignment, where we use the auction algorithm for 2-dimensional assignment as a base heuristic. This auction algorithm is particularly well-suited for our context, because through the use of prices, it can advantageously use the solution of an assignment problem as a starting point for solving other related assignment problems, and this can greatly speed up the execution of the rollout algorithm.