Robust policy evaluation for non-rectangular uncertainty set is generally NP-hard, even in approximation. Consequently, existing approaches suffer from either exponential iteration complexity or significant accuracy gaps. Interestingly, we identify a powerful class of Lp-bounded uncertainty sets that avoid these complexity barriers due to their structural simplicity. We further show that this class can be decomposed into infinitely many sa-rectangular Lp-bounded sets and leverage its structural properties to derive a novel dual formulation for Lp robust Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). This formulation reveals key insights into the adversary's strategy and leads to the first polynomial-time robust policy evaluation algorithm for L1-normed non-rectangular robust MDPs.

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) model specific environments in sequential decision-making under uncertainty. Critically, optimal policies for POMDPs may not be robust against perturbations in the environment. Hidden-model POMDPs (HM-POMDPs) capture sets of different environment models, that is, POMDPs with a shared action and observation space. The intuition is that the true model is hidden among a set of potential models, and it is unknown which model will be the environment at execution time. A policy is robust for a given HM-POMDP if it achieves sufficient performance for each of its POMDPs. We compute such robust policies by combining two orthogonal techniques: (1) a deductive formal verification technique that supports tractable robust policy evaluation by computing a worst-case POMDP within the HM-POMDP, and (2) subgradient ascent to optimize the candidate policy for a worst-case POMDP. The empirical evaluation shows that, compared to various baselines, our approach (1) produces policies that are more robust and generalize better to unseen POMDPs, and (2) scales to HM-POMDPs that consist of over a hundred thousand environments.

This paper develops a model-based framework for continuous-time policy evaluation (CTPE) in reinforcement learning, incorporating both Brownian and L evy noise to model stochastic dynamics influenced by rare and extreme events. Our approach formulates the policy evaluation problem as solving a partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) for the value function with unknown coefficients. A key challenge in this setting is accurately recovering the unknown coefficients in the stochastic dynamics, particularly when driven by L evy processes with heavy tail effects. To address this, we propose a robust numerical approach that effectively handles both unbiased and censored trajectory datasets. This method combines maximum likelihood estimation with an iterative tail correction mechanism, improving the stability and accuracy of coefficient recovery. Additionally, we establish a theoretical bound for the policy evaluation error based on coefficient recovery error. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our method in recovering heavy-tailed L evy dynamics and verify the theoretical error analysis in policy evaluation.

We study robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs) with non-rectangular uncertainty sets, which capture interdependencies across states unlike traditional rectangular models. While non-rectangular robust policy evaluation is generally NP-hard, even in approximation, we identify a powerful class of $L_p$-bounded uncertainty sets that avoid these complexity barriers due to their structural simplicity. We further show that this class can be decomposed into infinitely many \texttt{sa}-rectangular $L_p$-bounded sets and leverage its structural properties to derive a novel dual formulation for $L_p$ RMDPs. This formulation provides key insights into the adversary's strategy and enables the development of the first robust policy evaluation algorithms for non-rectangular RMDPs. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms brute-force methods, establishing a promising foundation for future investigation into non-rectangular robust MDPs.

We adopt a policy optimization viewpoint towards policy evaluation for robust Markov decision process with $\mathrm{s}$-rectangular ambiguity sets. The developed method, named first-order policy evaluation (FRPE), provides the first unified framework for robust policy evaluation in both deterministic (offline) and stochastic (online) settings, with either tabular representation or generic function approximation. In particular, we establish linear convergence in the deterministic setting, and $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\epsilon^2)$ sample complexity in the stochastic setting. FRPE also extends naturally to evaluating the robust state-action value function with $(\mathrm{s}, \mathrm{a})$-rectangular ambiguity sets. We discuss the application of the developed results for stochastic policy optimization of large-scale robust MDPs.

Both SAT and #SAT can represent difficult problems in seemingly dissimilar areas such as planning, verification, and probabilistic inference. Here, we examine an expressive new language, #∃SAT, that generalizes both of these languages. #∃SAT problems require counting the number of satisfiable formulas in a concisely-describable set of existentially-quantified, propositional formulas. We characterize the expressiveness and worst-case difficulty of #∃SAT by proving that it is complete for the complexity class #P^{NP[1]} , and relating this class to more familiar complexity classes. We also experiment with three new general purpose #∃SAT solvers on a battery of problem distributions including a simple logistics domain. Our experiments show that, despite the formidable worst-case complexity of #P^{NP[1]} , many of the instances can be solved efficiently by noticing and exploiting a particular type of frequent structure.

We study decision making in environments where the reward is only partially observed, but can be modeled as a function of an action and an observed context. This setting, known as contextual bandits, encompasses a wide variety of applications including health-care policy and Internet advertising. A central task is evaluation of a new policy given historic data consisting of contexts, actions and received rewards. The key challenge is that the past data typically does not faithfully represent proportions of actions taken by a new policy. Previous approaches rely either on models of rewards or models of the past policy. The former are plagued by a large bias whereas the latter have a large variance. In this work, we leverage the strength and overcome the weaknesses of the two approaches by applying the doubly robust technique to the problems of policy evaluation and optimization. We prove that this approach yields accurate value estimates when we have either a good (but not necessarily consistent) model of rewards or a good (but not necessarily consistent) model of past policy. Extensive empirical comparison demonstrates that the doubly robust approach uniformly improves over existing techniques, achieving both lower variance in value estimation and better policies. As such, we expect the doubly robust approach to become common practice.