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Distributional Adversarial Attacks and Training in Deep Hedging

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we study the robustness of classical deep hedging strategies under distributional shifts by leveraging the concept of adversarial attacks. We first demonstrate that standard deep hedging models are highly vulnerable to small perturbations in the input distribution, resulting in significant performance degradation. Motivated by this, we propose an adversarial training framework tailored to increase the robustness of deep hedging strategies. Our approach extends pointwise adversarial attacks to the distributional setting and introduces a computationally tractable reformulation of the adversarial optimization problem over a Wasserstein ball. This enables the efficient training of hedging strategies that are resilient to distributional perturbations. Through extensive numerical experiments, we show that adversarially trained deep hedging strategies consistently outperform their classical counterparts in terms of out-of-sample performance and resilience to model misspecification. Additional results indicate that the robust strategies maintain reliable performance on real market data and remain effective during periods of market change. Our findings establish a practical and effective framework for robust deep hedging under realistic market uncertainties.1


Pareto Optimal Risk Measure Agnostic Distributional Bandits with Heavy-Tail Rewards

Neural Information Processing Systems

This paper addresses the problem of multi-risk measure agnostic multi-armed bandits in heavy-tailed reward settings. We propose a framework that leverages novel deviation inequalities for the 1-Wasserstein distance to construct confidence intervals for Lipschitz risk measures. The distributional LCB (DistLCB) algorithm is introduced, which achieves asymptotic optimality by deriving the first lower bounds for risk measure aware bandits with explicit sub-optimality gap dependencies. The DistLCB is further extended to multi-risk objectives, which enables Pareto-optimal solutions that consider multiple aspects of reward distributions. Additionally, we provide a regret analysis that includes both gap-dependent and gap-independent bounds for multi-risk settings. Experiments validate the effectiveness of the proposed methods in synthetic and real-world applications.


Risk-Averse Total-Reward Reinforcement Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Existing model-based algorithms for risk measures like the entropic risk measure (ERM) and entropic value-at-risk (EVaR) are effective in small problems, but require full access to transition probabilities. We propose a Q-learning algorithm to compute the optimal stationary policy for total-reward ERM and EVaR objectives with strong convergence and performance guarantees. The algorithm and its optimality are made possible by ERM's dynamic consistency and elicitability. Our numerical results on tabular domains demonstrate quick and reliable convergence of the proposed Q-learning algorithm to the optimal risk-averse value function.


Conformal Risk Training: End-to-End Optimization of Conformal Risk Control

Neural Information Processing Systems

While deep learning models often achieve high predictive accuracy, their predictions typically do not come with any provable guarantees on risk or reliability, which are critical for deployment in high-stakes applications. The framework of conformal risk control (CRC) provides a distribution-free, finite-sample method for controlling the expected value of any bounded monotone loss function and can be conveniently applied post-hoc to any pre-trained deep learning model. However, many realworld applications are sensitive to tail risks, as opposed to just expected loss. In this work, we develop a method for controlling the general class of Optimized CertaintyEquivalent (OCE) risks, a broad class of risk measures which includes as special cases the expected loss (generalizing the original CRC method) and common tail risks like the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR).


Risk-Averse Constrained Reinforcement Learning with Optimized Certainty Equivalents

Neural Information Processing Systems

Constrained optimization provides a common framework for dealing with conflicting objectives in reinforcement learning (RL). In most of these settings, the objectives (and constraints) are expressed though the expected accumulated reward. However, this formulation neglects risky or even possibly catastrophic events at the tails of the reward distribution, and is often insufficient for high-stakes applications in which the risk involved in outliers is critical. In this work, we propose a framework for risk-aware constrained RL, which exhibits per-stage robustness properties jointly in reward values and time using optimized certainty equivalents (OCEs). Our framework ensures an exact equivalent to the original constrained problem within a parameterized strong Lagrangian duality framework under appropriate constraint qualifications, and yields a simple algorithmic recipe which can be wrapped around standard RL solvers, such as PPO. Lastly, we establish the convergence of the proposed algorithm under common assumptions, and verify the risk-aware properties of our approach through several numerical experiments.


Risk-Averse Total-Reward Reinforcement Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Existing model-based algorithms for risk measures like the entropic risk measure (ERM) and entropic value-at-risk (EVaR) are effective in small problems, but require full access to transition probabilities. We propose a Q-learning algorithm to compute the optimal stationary policy for total-reward ERM and EVaR objectives with strong convergence and performance guarantees. The algorithm and its optimality are made possible by ERM's dynamic consistency and elicitability. Our numerical results on tabular domains demonstrate quick and reliable convergence of the proposed Q-learning algorithm to the optimal risk-averse value function.


On the Sample Complexity of Discounted Reinforcement Learning with Optimized Certainty Equivalents

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study risk-sensitive reinforcement learning in finite discounted MDPs, where a generative model of the MDP is assumed to be available. We consider a family or risk measures called the optimized certainty equivalent (OCE), which includes important risk measures such as entropic risk, CVaR, and mean-variance. Our focus is on the sample complexities of learning the optimal state-action value function (value learning) and an optimal policy (policy learning) under recursive OCE. We provide an exact characterization of utility functions $u$ for which the corresponding OCE defines an objective that is PAC-learnable. We analyze a simple model-based approach and derive PAC sample complexity bounds. We establish that whenever $u$ does not have full domain $\text{dom}(u)\neq \mathbb{R}$, the corresponding problem is not PAC-learnable. Finally, we establish corresponding lower bounds for both value and policy learning, demonstrating tightness in the size $SA$ of state-action space, and for a more restricted class of utilities, we derive lower bounds that makes the dependence on the effective horizon $\frac{1}{1-ฮณ}$ explicit. Specifically, for $\text{CVaR}_ฯ„$ we show that the correct dependence on $ฯ„$ is $\frac{1}{ฯ„^2}$, thus improving by a factor of $\frac{1}ฯ„$ over state-of-the-art although our bound has a suboptimal dependence on $\frac{1}{1-ฮณ}$.


Pessimistic Risk-Aware Policy Learning in Contextual Bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study risk-aware offline policy learning, aiming to learn a decision rule from logged data that is optimal under general risk criteria. This problem is crucial in high-stakes domains where online interaction is infeasible and adverse outcomes must be carefully controlled. However, existing literature on offline contextual bandits either centers on expected-reward criteria or restricts risk considerations to policy evaluation instead of optimization. In this work, we propose a unified distributional framework for optimizing Lipschitz-continuous risk functionals, a broad class of risk measures encompassing mean-variance, entropic risk, and conditional value-at-risk, among others. By developing novel empirical concentration inequalities for importance sampling-based distributional estimators, our analysis derives data-dependent suboptimality bounds with an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\sqrt{n})$ rate, without relying on restrictive uniform overlap assumptions. This rate is minimax optimal and matches that of risk-neutral offline policy optimization, indicating that optimizing general Lipschitz risk criteria incurs no additional statistical cost relative to the expected-reward.



Risk-Averse Model Uncertainty for Distributionally Robust Safe Reinforcement Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Many real-world domains require safe decision making in uncertain environments. In this work, we introduce a deep reinforcement learning framework for approaching this important problem. We consider a distribution over transition models, and apply a risk-averse perspective towards model uncertainty through the use of coherent distortion risk measures. We provide robustness guarantees for this framework by showing it is equivalent to a specific class of distributionally robust safe reinforcement learning problems. Unlike existing approaches to robustness in deep reinforcement learning, however, our formulation does not involve minimax optimization. This leads to an efficient, model-free implementation of our approach that only requires standard data collection from a single training environment. In experiments on continuous control tasks with safety constraints, we demonstrate that our framework produces robust performance and safety at deployment time across a range of perturbed test environments.