Multi-structure model fitting has traditionally taken a two-stage approach: First, sample a (large) number of model hypotheses, then select the subset of hypotheses that optimise a joint fitting and model selection criterion. This disjoint two-stage approach is arguably suboptimal and inefficient - if the random sampling did not retrieve a good set of hypotheses, the optimised outcome will not represent a good fit. To overcome this weakness we propose a new multi-structure fitting approach based on Reversible Jump MCMC. Instrumental in raising the effectiveness of our method is an adaptive hypothesis generator, whose proposal distribution is learned incrementally and online. We prove that this adaptive proposal satisfies the diminishing adaptation property crucial for ensuring ergodicity in MCMC.

Multi-structure model fitting has traditionally taken a two-stage approach: First, sample a (large) number of model hypotheses, then select the subset of hypotheses that optimise a joint fitting and model selection criterion. This disjoint two-stage approach is arguably suboptimal and inefficient - if the random sampling did not retrieve a good set of hypotheses, the optimised outcome will not represent a good fit. To overcome this weakness we propose a new multi-structure fitting approach based on Reversible Jump MCMC. Instrumental in raising the effectiveness of our method is an adaptive hypothesis generator, whose proposal distribution is learned incrementally and online. We prove that this adaptive proposal satisfies the diminishing adaptation property crucial for ensuring ergodicity in MCMC.

We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for computationally expensive models. Previous research has shown that BQ offers sample efficiency superior to Monte Carlo in computing the evidence of an individual model. However, applying BQ directly to model comparison may waste computation producing an overly-accurate estimate for the evidence of a clearly poor model. We propose an automated and efficient algorithm for computing the most-relevant quantity for model selection: the posterior probability of a model. Our technique maximizes the mutual information between this quantity and observations of the models' likelihoods, yielding efficient acquisition of samples across disparate model spaces when likelihood observations are limited. Our method produces more-accurate model posterior estimates using fewer model likelihood evaluations than standard Bayesian quadrature and Monte Carlo estimators, as we demonstrate on synthetic and real-world examples.

Dey et al. (2017), bayesian formulation of this problem is discussed. Hyper prameter choice was the major issue in that paper. However this problem was attempted only after suitable choice of feature dimension for user and movie feature vector. Usual method used to select such feature dimension is nothing but one dimensional grid search that select the dimension which minimizes the test error. This approach is boring as it attracts extra computational burden to select the feature dimension.

In this paper we build on previous work which uses inferences techniques, in particular Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, to solve parameterized control problems. We propose a number of modifications in order to make this approach more practical in general, higher-dimensional spaces. We first introduce a new target distribution which is able to incorporate more reward information from sampled trajectories. We also show how to break strong correlations between the policy parameters and sampled trajectories in order to sample more freely. Finally, we show how to incorporate these techniques in a principled manner to obtain estimates of the optimal policy.

A recently proposed formulation of the stochastic planning and control problem as one of parameter estimation for suitable artificial statistical models has led to the adoption of inference algorithms for this notoriously hard problem. At the algorithmic level, the focus has been on developing Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms. In this paper, we begin by making the crucial observation that the stochastic control problem can be reinterpreted as one of trans-dimensional inference. With this new interpretation, we are able to propose a novel reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that is more efficient than its EM counterparts. Moreover, it enables us to implement full Bayesian policy search, without the need for gradients and with one single Markov chain. The new approach involves sampling directly from a distribution that is proportional to the reward and, consequently, performs better than classic simulations methods in situations where the reward is a rare event.

A recently proposed formulation of the stochastic planning and control problem as one of parameter estimation for suitable artificial statistical models has led to the adoption of inference algorithms for this notoriously hard problem. At the algorithmic level, the focus has been on developing Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms. In this paper, we begin by making the crucial observation that the stochastic control problem can be reinterpreted as one of trans-dimensional inference. With this new interpretation, we are able to propose a novel reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that is more efficient than its EM counterparts. Moreover, it enables us to implement full Bayesian policy search, without the need for gradients and with one single Markov chain. The new approach involves sampling directly from a distribution that is proportional to the reward and, consequently, performs better than classic simulations methods in situations where the reward is a rare event.

Continuous state-space Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are notoriously difficult to solve.