return distribution
Distributional Off-Policy Evaluation with Deep Quantile Process Regression
Kuang, Qi, Wang, Chao, Jiao, Yuling, Zhou, Fan
This paper investigates the off-policy evaluation (OPE) problem from a distributional perspective. Rather than focusing solely on the expectation of the total return, as in most existing OPE methods, we aim to estimate the entire return distribution. To this end, we introduce a quantile-based approach for OPE using deep quantile process regression, presenting a novel algorithm called Deep Quantile Process regression-based Off-Policy Evaluation (DQPOPE). We provide new theoretical insights into the deep quantile process regression technique, extending existing approaches that estimate discrete quantiles to estimate a continuous quantile function. A key contribution of our work is the rigorous sample complexity analysis for distributional OPE with deep neural networks, bridging theoretical analysis with practical algorithmic implementations. We show that DQPOPE achieves statistical advantages by estimating the full return distribution using the same sample size required to estimate a single policy value using conventional methods. Empirical studies further show that DQPOPE provides significantly more precise and robust policy value estimates than standard methods, thereby enhancing the practical applicability and effectiveness of distributional reinforcement learning approaches.
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RMIX: LearningRisk-SensitivePoliciesfor CooperativeReinforcementLearningAgents
Current value-based multi-agent reinforcement learning methods optimize individual Q values to guide individuals' behaviours via centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE). However, such expected, i.e., risk-neutral, Q value is not sufficient even with CTDE due to the randomness of rewards and the uncertainty in environments, which causes the failure of these methods to train coordinating agents incomplexenvironments. Toaddress these issues, we propose RMIX, anovelcooperativeMARL method with theConditional Value at Risk (CVaR) measure over the learned distributions of individuals' Q values. Specifically, we first learn the return distributions of individuals to analytically calculate CVaRfordecentralized execution. Then,tohandle thetemporal nature of the stochastic outcomes during executions, we propose a dynamic risk level predictorforriskleveltuning.
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