Climate change, population growth, and water scarcity present unprecedented challenges for agriculture. This project aims to forecast soil moisture using domain knowledge and machine learning for crop management decisions that enable sustainable farming. Traditional methods for predicting hydrological response features require significant computational time and expertise. Recent work has implemented machine learning models as a tool for forecasting hydrological response features, but these models neglect a crucial component of traditional hydrological modeling that spatially close units can have vastly different hydrological responses. In traditional hydrological modeling, units with similar hydrological properties are grouped together and share model parameters regardless of their spatial proximity. Inspired by this domain knowledge, we have constructed a novel domain-inspired temporal graph convolution neural network. Our approach involves clustering units based on time-varying hydrological properties, constructing graph topologies for each cluster, and forecasting soil moisture using graph convolutions and a gated recurrent neural network. We have trained, validated, and tested our method on field-scale time series data consisting of approximately 99,000 hydrological response units spanning 40 years in a case study in northeastern United States. Comparison with existing models illustrates the effectiveness of using domain-inspired clustering with time series graph neural networks. The framework is being deployed as part of a pro bono social impact program. The trained models are being deployed on small-holding farms in central Texas.

Causal inference is at the heart of empirical research in natural and social sciences and is critical for scientific discovery and informed decision making. The gold standard in causal inference is performing randomized controlled trials; unfortunately these are not always feasible due to ethical, legal, or cost constraints. As an alternative, methodologies for causal inference from observational data have been developed in statistical studies and social sciences. However, existing methods critically rely on restrictive assumptions such as the study population consisting of homogeneous elements that can be represented in a single flat table, where each row is referred to as a unit. In contrast, in many real-world settings, the study domain naturally consists of heterogeneous elements with complex relational structure, where the data is naturally represented in multiple related tables. In this paper, we present a formal framework for causal inference from such relational data. We propose a declarative language called CaRL for capturing causal background knowledge and assumptions and specifying causal queries using simple Datalog-like rules. CaRL provides a foundation for inferring causality and reasoning about the effect of complex interventions in relational domains. We present an extensive experimental evaluation on real relational data to illustrate the applicability of CaRL in social sciences and healthcare.

We propose a model by which dopamine (DA) and norepinepherine (NE) combine to alternate behavior between relatively exploratory and exploitative modes. The model is developed for a target detection task for which there is extant single neuron recording data available from locus coeruleus (LC) NE neurons. An exploration-exploitation tradeoff is elicited by regularly switching which of the two stimuli are rewarded. DA functions within the model to change synaptic weights according to a reinforcement learning algorithm. Exploration is mediated by the state of LC firing, with higher tonic and lower phasic activity producing greater response variability. The opposite state of LC function, with lower baseline firing rate and greater phasic responses, favors exploitative behavior. Changes in LC firing mode result from combined measures of response conflict and reward rate, where response conflict is monitored using models of anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Increased long-term response conflict and decreased reward rate, which occurs following reward contingency switch, favors the higher tonic state of LC function and NE release.

We propose a model by which dopamine (DA) and norepinepherine (NE) combine to alternate behavior between relatively exploratory and exploitative modes. The model is developed for a target detection task for which there is extant single neuron recording data available from locus coeruleus (LC) NE neurons. An exploration-exploitation tradeoff is elicited by regularly switching which of the two stimuli are rewarded. DA functions within the model to change synaptic weights according to a reinforcement learning algorithm. Exploration is mediated by the state of LC firing, with higher tonic and lower phasic activity producing greater response variability. The opposite state of LC function, with lower baseline firing rate and greater phasic responses, favors exploitative behavior. Changes in LC firing mode result from combined measures of response conflict and reward rate, where response conflict is monitored using models of anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Increased long-term response conflict and decreased reward rate, which occurs following reward contingency switch, favors the higher tonic state of LC function and NE release.

We propose a model by which dopamine (DA) and norepinepherine (NE) combine to alternate behavior between relatively exploratory and exploitative modes. The model is developed for a target detection task for which there is extant single neuron recording data available from locus coeruleus (LC) NE neurons. An exploration-exploitation tradeoff is elicited by regularly switching which of the two stimuli are rewarded. DA functions within the model to change synaptic weights according to a reinforcement learning algorithm. Exploration is mediated by the state of LC firing, with higher tonic and lower phasic activity producing greater response variability. The opposite state of LC function, with lower baseline firing rate and greater phasic responses, favors exploitative behavior. Changes in LC firing mode result from combined measures of response conflict and reward rate, where response conflict is monitored using models of anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). Increased long-term response conflict and decreased reward rate, which occurs following reward contingency switch, favors the higher tonic state of LC function and NE release.

We examine a psychophysical law that describes the influence of stimulus and context on perception. According to this law choice probability ratios factorize into components independently controlled by stimulus and context. It has been argued that this pattern of results is incompatible with feedback models of perception. In this paper we examine this claim using neural network models defined via stochastic differential equations. We show that the law is related to a condition named channel separability and has little to do with the existence of feedback connections. In essence, channels are separable if they converge into the response units without direct lateral connections to other channels and if their sensors are not directly contaminated by external inputs to the other channels. Implications of the analysis for cognitive and computational neurosicence are discussed.

We examine a psychophysical law that describes the influence of stimulus and context on perception. According to this law choice probability ratios factorize into components independently controlled by stimulus and context. It has been argued that this pattern of results is incompatible with feedback models of perception. In this paper we examine this claim using neural network models defined via stochastic differential equations. We show that the law is related to a condition named channel separability and has little to do with the existence of feedback connections. In essence, channels are separable if they converge into the response units without direct lateral connections to other channels and if their sensors are not directly contaminated by external inputs to the other channels. Implications of the analysis for cognitive and computational neurosicence are discussed.

We examine a psychophysical law that describes the influence of stimulus and context on perception. According to this law choice probability ratios factorize into components independently controlled bystimulus and context. It has been argued that this pattern of results is incompatible with feedback models of perception. In this paper we examine this claim using neural network models defined via stochastic differential equations. We show that the law is related to a condition named channel separability and has little to do with the existence of feedback connections. In essence, channels areseparable if they converge into the response units without direct lateral connections to other channels and if their sensors are not directly contaminated by external inputs to the other channels. Implicationsof the analysis for cognitive and computational neurosicence are discussed.

We present a model of catecholamine effects in a network of neural-like elements. We argue that changes in the responsivity of individual elements do not affect their ability to detect a signal and ignore noise. However. the same changes in cell responsivity in a network of such elements do improve the signal detection performance of the network as a whole. We show how this result can be used in a computer simulation of behavior to account for the effect of eNS stimulants on the signal detection performance of human subjects.

We present a model of catecholamine effects in a network of neural-like elements. We argue that changes in the responsivity of individual elements do not affect their ability to detect a signal and ignore noise. However. the same changes in cell responsivity in a network of such elements do improve the signal detection performance of the network as a whole. We show how this result can be used in a computer simulation of behavior to account for the effect of eNS stimulants on the signal detection performance of human subjects.