Digital personas powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed as substitutes for human survey respondents, yet it remains unclear when they can reliably approximate human survey findings. We answer this question using the LISS panel, constructing personas from respondents' background variables and pre-2023 survey histories, then testing them against the same respondents' held-out post-cutoff answers. Across four persona architectures, three LLMs, and two prediction tasks, we assess performance at the question, respondent, distributional, equity, and clustering levels. Digital personas improve alignment with human response distributions, especially in domains tied to stable attributes and values, but remain limited for individual prediction and fail to recover multivariate respondent structure. Retrieval-augmented architectures provide the clearest gains, but performance depends more on human response structure than on model choice: personas perform best for low-variability questions and common respondent patterns, and worst for subjective, heterogeneous, or rare responses. Our results provide practical guidance on when digital personas could be appropriate for survey research and when human validation remains necessary.

Neural circuits are typically comprised of populations of primary (excitatory) neurons and local (inhibitory) interneurons.

Discovering the neural mechanisms underpinning cognition is one of the grand challenges of neuroscience. However, previous approaches for building models of RNN dynamics that explain behaviour required iterative refinement of architectures and/or optimisation objectives, resulting in a piecemeal, and mostly heuristic, human-in-the-loop process. Here, we offer an alternative approach that automates the discovery of viable RNN mechanisms by explicitly training RNNs to reproduce behaviour, including the same characteristic errors and suboptimalities, that humans and animals produce in a cognitive task. Achieving this required two main innovations. First, as the amount of behavioural data that can be collected in experiments is often too limited to train RNNs, we use a non-parametric generative model of behavioural responses to produce surrogate data for training RNNs. Second, to capture all relevant statistical aspects of the data, we developed a novel diffusion model-based approach for training RNNs. To showcase the potential of our approach, we chose a visual working memory task as our test-bed, as behaviour in this task is well known to produce response distributions that are patently multimodal (due to swap errors). The resulting network dynamics correctly qualitative features of macaque neural data. Importantly, these results were not possible to obtain with more traditional approaches, i.e., when only a limited set of behavioural signatures (rather than the full richness of behavioural response distributions) were fitted, or when RNNs were trained for task optimality (instead of reproducing behaviour). Our approach also yields novel predictions about the mechanism of swap errors, which can be readily tested in experiments. These results suggest that fitting RNNs to rich patterns of behaviour provides a powerful way to automatically discover mechanisms of important cognitive functions.