probability distribution
On the Global Optimality of Policy Gradient Methods in General Utility Reinforcement Learning
Reinforcement learning with general utilities (RLGU) offers a unifying framework to capture several problems beyond standard expected returns, including imitation learning, pure exploration, and safe RL. Despite recent fundamental advances in the theoretical analysis of policy gradient (PG) methods for standard RL and recent efforts in RLGU, the understanding of these PG algorithms and their scope of application in RLGU still remain limited. In this work, we establish global optimality guarantees of PG methods for RLGU in which the objective is a general concave utility function of the state-action occupancy measure. In the tabular setting, we provide global optimality results using a new proof technique building on recent theoretical developments on the convergence of PG methods for standard RL using gradient domination. Our proof technique opens avenues for analyzing policy parameterizations beyond the direct policy parameterization for RLGU. In addition, we provide global optimality results for large state-action space settings beyond prior work which has mostly focused on the tabular setting. In this large scale setting, we adapt PG methods by approximating occupancy measures within a function approximation class using maximum likelihood estimation. Our sample complexity only scales with the dimension induced by our approximation class instead of the size of the state-action space.
Soft Thinking: Unlocking the Reasoning Potential of LLMs in Continuous Concept Space
Human cognition typically involves thinking through abstract, fluid concepts rather than strictly using discrete linguistic tokens. Current reasoning models, however, are constrained to reasoning within the boundaries of human language, processing discrete token embeddings that represent fixed points in the semantic space. This discrete constraint restricts the expressive power and upper potential of such reasoning models, often causing incomplete exploration of reasoning paths, as standard Chain-of-Thought (CoT) methods rely on sampling one token per step. In this work, we introduce Soft Thinking, a training-free method that emulates human-like "soft" reasoning by generating soft, abstract concept tokens in a continuous concept space. These concept tokens are created by the probability-weighted mixture of token embeddings, which form the continuous concept space, enabling smooth transitions and richer representations that transcend traditional discrete boundaries. In essence, each generated concept token encapsulates multiple meanings from related discrete tokens, implicitly exploring various reasoning paths to converge effectively toward the correct answer. Empirical evaluations on diverse mathematical and coding benchmarks consistently demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of Soft Thinking, improving pass@1 accuracy by up to 2.48 points while simultaneously reducing token usage by up to 22.4% compared to standard CoT. Qualitative analysis further reveals that Soft Thinking outputs remain highly interpretable and readable, highlighting the potential of Soft Thinking to break the inherent bottleneck of discrete language-based reasoning.
Credal Prediction based on Relative Likelihood
Predictions in the form of sets of probability distributions, so-called credal sets, provide a suitable means to represent a learner's epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a theoretically grounded approach to credal prediction based on the statistical notion of relative likelihood: The target of prediction is the set of all (conditional) probability distributions produced by the collection of plausible models, namely those models whose relative likelihood exceeds a specified threshold. This threshold has an intuitive interpretation and allows for controlling the trade-off between correctness and precision of credal predictions. We tackle the problem of approximating credal sets defined in this way by means of suitably modified ensemble learning techniques. To validate our approach, we illustrate its effectiveness by experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrating superior uncertainty representation without compromising predictive performance. We also compare our method against several state-of-the-art baselines in credal prediction.
MemSim: ABayesian Simulator for Evaluating Memory of LLM-based Personal Assistants
LLM-based agents have been widely applied as personal assistants, capable of memorizing information from user messages and responding to personal queries. However, there still lacks an objective and automatic evaluation on their memory capability, largely due to the challenges in constructing reliable questions and answers (QAs) according to user messages. In this paper, we propose MemSim, a Bayesian simulator designed to automatically construct reliable QAs from generated user messages, simultaneously keeping their diversity and scalability. Specifically, we introduce the Bayesian Relation Network (BRNet) and a causal generation mechanism to mitigate the impact of LLM hallucinations on factual information, facilitating the automatic creation of an evaluation dataset. Based on MemSim, we generate a dataset in the daily-life scenario, named MemDaily, and conduct extensive experiments to assess the effectiveness of our approach. We also provide a benchmark for evaluating different memory mechanisms in LLM-based agents with the MemDaily dataset.
Traversal Verification for Speculative Tree Decoding
Speculative decoding is a promising approach for accelerating large language models. The primary idea is to use a lightweight draft model to speculate the output of the target model for multiple subsequent timesteps, and then verify them in parallel to determine whether the drafted tokens should be accepted or rejected. To enhance acceptance rates, existing frameworks typically construct token trees containing multiple candidates in each timestep. However, their reliance on token-level verification mechanisms introduces two critical limitations: First, the probability distribution of a sequence differs from that of individual tokens, leading to suboptimal acceptance length. Second, current verification schemes begin from the root node and proceed layer by layer in a top-down manner.
On the Hardness of Approximating Distributions with Tractable Probabilistic Models
A fundamental challenge in probabilistic modeling is to balance expressivity and inference efficiency. Tractable probabilistic models (TPMs) aim to directly address this tradeoff by imposing constraints that guarantee efficient inference of certain queries while maintaining expressivity. In particular, probabilistic circuits (PCs) provide a unifying framework for many TPMs, by characterizing families of models as circuits satisfying different structural properties. Because the complexity of inference on PCs is a function of the circuit size, understanding the size requirements of different families of PCs is fundamental in mapping the trade-off between tractability and expressive efficiency. However, the study of expressive efficiency of circuits are often concerned with exact representations, which may not align with model learning, where we look to approximate the underlying data distribution closely by some distance measure.
Multitask Learning with Stochastic Interpolants
We propose a framework for learning maps between probability distributions that broadly generalizes the time dynamics of flow and diffusion models. To enable this, we generalize stochastic interpolants by replacing the scalar time variable with vectors, matrices, or linear operators, allowing us to bridge probability distributions across multiple dimensional spaces. This approach enables the construction of versatile generative models capable of fulfilling multiple tasks without task-specific training. Our operator-based interpolants not only provide a unifying theoretical perspective for existing generative models but also extend their capabilities. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate the zero-shot efficacy of our method on conditional generation and inpainting, fine-tuning and posterior sampling, and multiscale modeling, suggesting its potential as a generic task-agnostic alternative to specialized models.
Wasserstein Transfer Learning
Transfer learning is a powerful paradigm for leveraging knowledge from source domains to enhance learning in a target domain. However, traditional transfer learning approaches often focus on scalar or multivariate data within Euclidean spaces, limiting their applicability to complex data structures such as probability distributions. To address this, we introduce a novel framework for transfer learning in regression models, where outputs are probability distributions residing in the Wasserstein space. When the informative subset of transferable source domains is known, we propose an estimator with provable asymptotic convergence rates, quantifying the impact of domain similarity on transfer efficiency. For cases where the informative subset is unknown, we develop a data-driven transfer learning procedure designed to mitigate negative transfer. The proposed methods are supported by rigorous theoretical analysis and are validated through extensive simulations and real-world applications.
Query-Efficient Locally Private Hypothesis Selection via the Scheffe Graph
We propose an algorithm with improved query-complexity for the problem of hypothesis selection under local differential privacy constraints. Given a set of $k$ probability distributions $Q$, we describe an algorithm that satisfies local differential privacy, performs $\tilde{O}(k^{3/2})$ non-adaptive queries to individuals who each have samples from a probability distribution $p$, and outputs a probability distribution from the set $Q$ which is nearly the closest to $p$. Previous algorithms required either $\Omega(k^2)$ queries or many rounds of interactive queries. Technically, we introduce a new object we dub the Scheff\'e graph, which captures structure of the differences between distributions in $Q$, and may be of more broad interest for hypothesis selection tasks.