Causal inference is a key research area in machine learning, yet confusion reigns over the tools needed to tackle it. There are prevalent claims in the machine learning literature that you need a bespoke causal framework or notation to answer causal questions. In this paper, we want to make it clear that you \emph{can} answer any causal inference question within the realm of probabilistic modelling and inference, without causal-specific tools or notation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate how causal questions can be tackled by writing down the probability of everything. Lastly, we reinterpret causal tools as emerging from standard probabilistic modelling and inference, elucidating their necessity and utility.

User preferences for items can be inferred from either explicit feedback, such as item ratings, or implicit feedback, such as rental histories. Research in collaborative filtering has concentrated on explicit feedback, resulting in the development of accurate and scalable models. However, since explicit feedback is often difficult to collect it is important to develop effective models that take advantage of the more widely available implicit feedback. We introduce a probabilistic approach to collaborative filtering with implicit feedback based on modelling the user's item selection process. In the interests of scalability, we restrict our attention to tree-structured distributions over items and develop a principled and efficient algorithm for learning item trees from data.

We introduce a novel way to incorporate prior information into (semi-) supervised non-negative matrix factorization, which we call differentiable dictionary search. It enables general, highly flexible and principled modelling of mixtures where non-linear sources are linearly mixed. We study its behavior on an audio decomposition task, and conduct an extensive, highly controlled study of its modelling capabilities.

User preferences for items can be inferred from either explicit feedback, such as item ratings, or implicit feedback, such as rental histories. Research in collaborative filtering has concentrated on explicit feedback, resulting in the development of accurate and scalable models. However, since explicit feedback is often difficult to collect it is important to develop effective models that take advantage of the more widely available implicit feedback. We introduce a probabilistic approach to collaborative filtering with implicit feedback based on modelling the user's item selection process. In the interests of scalability, we restrict our attention to tree-structured distributions over items and develop a principled and efficient algorithm for learning item trees from data. We also identify a problem with a widely used protocol for evaluating implicit feedback models and propose a way of addressing it using a small quantity of explicit feedback data.