Probabilistic inference serves as a popular model for neural processing. It is still unclear, however, how approximate probabilistic inference can be accurate and scalable to very high-dimensional continuous latent spaces. Especially as typical posteriors for sensory data can be expected to exhibit complex latent dependencies including multiple modes. Here, we study an approach that can efficiently be scaled while maintaining a richly structured posterior approximation under these conditions. As example model we use spike-and-slab sparse coding for V1 processing, and combine latent subspace selection with Gibbs sampling (select-and-sample).

Behavioral experiments on humans and animals suggest that the brain performs probabilistic inference to interpret its environment. Here we present a new general-purpose, biologically-plausible neural implementation of approximate inference. The neural network represents uncertainty using Probabilistic Population Codes (PPCs), which are distributed neural representations that naturally encode probability distributions, and support marginalization and evidence integration in a biologically-plausible manner. By connecting multiple PPCs together as a probabilistic graphical model, we represent multivariate probability distributions. Approximate inference in graphical models can be accomplished by message-passing algorithms that disseminate local information throughout the graph. An attractive and often accurate example of such an algorithm is Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP), which uses local marginalization and evidence integration operations to perform approximate inference efficiently even for complex models.

Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI) technique is an instance of augmented variational inference, thus identifying the looseness in previous work. Experiments confirm IWVI's practicality for probabilistic inference. As a second contribution, we investigate inference with elliptical distributions, which improves accuracy in low dimensions, and convergence in high dimensions.

This work introduces a novel technique, named structural dimension reduction, to collapse a Bayesian network onto a minimum and localized one while ensuring that probabilistic inferences between the original and reduced networks remain consistent. To this end, we propose a new combinatorial structure in directed acyclic graphs called the directed convex hull, which has turned out to be equivalent to their minimum localized Bayesian networks. An efficient polynomial-time algorithm is devised to identify them by determining the unique directed convex hulls containing the variables of interest from the original networks. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed technique has high dimension reduction capability in real networks, and the efficiency of probabilistic inference based on directed convex hulls can be significantly improved compared with traditional methods such as variable elimination and belief propagation algorithms. The code of this study is open at \href{https://github.com/Balance-H/Algorithms}{https://github.com/Balance-H/Algorithms} and the proofs of the results in the main body are postponed to the appendix.

A popular perspective in Reinforcement learning (RL) casts the problem as probabilistic inference on a graphical model of the Markov decision process (MDP). The core object of study is the probability of each state-action pair being visited under the optimal policy. Previous approaches to approximate this quantity can be arbitrarily poor, leading to algorithms that do not implement genuine statistical inference and consequently do not perform well in challenging problems. In this work, we undertake a rigorous Bayesian treatment of the posterior probability of state-action optimality and clarify how it flows through the MDP. We first reveal that this quantity can indeed be used to generate a policy that explores efficiently, as measured by regret. Unfortunately, computing it is intractable, so we derive a new variational Bayesian approximation yielding a tractable convex optimization problem and establish that the resulting policy also explores efficiently. We call our approach VAPOR and show that it has strong connections to Thompson sampling, K-learning, and maximum entropy exploration. We conclude with some experiments demonstrating the performance advantage of a deep RL version of VAPOR.

For animals to navigate an uncertain world, their brains need to estimate uncertainty at the timescales of sensations and actions. Sampling-based algorithms afford a theoretically-grounded framework for probabilistic inference in neural circuits, but it remains unknown how one can implement fast sampling algorithms in biologically-plausible spiking networks. Here, we propose to leverage the population geometry, controlled by the neural code and the neural dynamics, to implement fast samplers in spiking neural networks. We first show that two classes of spiking samplers---efficient balanced spiking networks that simulate Langevin sampling, and networks with probabilistic spike rules that implement Metropolis-Hastings sampling---can be unified within a common framework. We then show that careful choice of population geometry, corresponding to the natural space of parameters, enables rapid inference of parameters drawn from strongly-correlated high-dimensional distributions in both networks. Our results suggest design principles for algorithms for sampling-based probabilistic inference in spiking neural networks, yielding potential inspiration for neuromorphic computing and testable predictions for neurobiology.