price variation
Optimal Linear Signal: An Unsupervised Machine Learning Framework to Optimize PnL with Linear Signals
This study presents an unsupervised machine learning approach for optimizing Profit and Loss (PnL) in quantitative finance. Our algorithm, akin to an unsupervised variant of linear regression, maximizes the Sharpe Ratio of PnL generated from signals constructed linearly from exogenous variables. The methodology employs a linear relationship between exogenous variables and the trading signal, with the objective of maximizing the Sharpe Ratio through parameter optimization. Empirical application on an ETF representing U.S. Treasury bonds demonstrates the model's effectiveness, supported by regularization techniques to mitigate overfitting. The study concludes with potential avenues for further development, including generalized time steps and enhanced corrective terms.
Interactive Multi-Consumer Power Cooperatives with Learning and Axiomatic Cost and Risk Disaggregation
Ehsanfar, Abbas (Stevens Institute of Technology) | Heydari, Babak (Stevens Institute of Technology)
This paper introduces a novel autonomous interactive learning cooperative (ILCP) who receives expected value and variance of load from consumers and participates in the electricity market on their behalf. Using an axiomatic approach, the share of each consumer's payment as well as its weight in calculating the modification of total day-ahead load are formulated. This scheme applies double-seasonal smoothing exponential, a recent load forecasting technique, and a classifier for real-time to day-ahead price direction forecasting (Gaussian Naïve Bayes). In addition to this, the ILCP employs interactive cooperative algorithms for both trading cooperative and consumer side. The ILCP scheme is investigated and its performance is compared to those of non-cooperative real-time pricing (RTP), LCP (non-interactive learning cooperative) and CP (non-interactive non-learning cooperative). The developed system was implemented using PJM(world's largest wholesale electricity market) real-time and day-ahead data for 2013 and half of 2014; real load profiles were selected from a set of 579 residential and commercial consumers, and weather data were applied to forecasting electricity price direction. We demonstrate the advantages of ILCP to lower the average electricity cost and to reduce unit price variations.
Economic Properties of Social Networks
Kakade, Sham M., Kearns, Michael, Ortiz, Luis E., Pemantle, Robin, Suri, Siddharth
We examine the marriage of recent probabilistic generative models for social networks with classical frameworks from mathematical economics. We are particularly interested in how the statistical structure of such networks influences global economic quantities such as price variation. Our findings are a mixture of formal analysis, simulation, and experiments on an international trade data set from the United Nations.
Economic Properties of Social Networks
Kakade, Sham M., Kearns, Michael, Ortiz, Luis E., Pemantle, Robin, Suri, Siddharth
We examine the marriage of recent probabilistic generative models for social networks with classical frameworks from mathematical economics. We are particularly interested in how the statistical structure of such networks influences global economic quantities such as price variation. Our findings are a mixture of formal analysis, simulation, and experiments on an international trade data set from the United Nations.
Economic Properties of Social Networks
Kakade, Sham M., Kearns, Michael, Ortiz, Luis E., Pemantle, Robin, Suri, Siddharth
We examine the marriage of recent probabilistic generative models for social networks with classical frameworks from mathematical economics. Weare particularly interested in how the statistical structure of such networks influences global economic quantities such as price variation. Ourfindings are a mixture of formal analysis, simulation, and experiments on an international trade data set from the United Nations.