Quantifying uncertainty in deep regression models is important both for understanding the confidence of the model and for safe decision-making in high-risk domains. Existing approaches that yield prediction intervals overlook distributional information, neglecting the effect of multimodal or asymmetric distributions on decision-making.

Real-world data distributions often shift continuously across multiple latent factors such as time, geography, and socioeconomic contexts. However, existing domain generalization approaches typically treat domains as discrete or as evolving along a single axis (e.g., time). This oversimplification fails to capture the complex, multidimensional nature of real-world variation. This paper introduces the task of Continuous Domain Generalization (CDG), which aims to generalize predictive models to unseen domains defined by arbitrary combinations of continuous variations. We present a principled framework grounded in geometric and algebraic theories, showing that optimal model parameters across domains lie on a low-dimensional manifold. To model this structure, we propose a Neural Lie Transport Operator (NeuralLio), which enables structure-preserving parameter transitions by enforcing geometric continuity and algebraic consistency. To handle noisy or incomplete domain variation descriptors, we introduce a gating mechanism to suppress irrelevant dimensions and a local chart-based strategy for robust generalization. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, including remote sensing, scientific documents, and traffic forecasting, demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms existing baselines in both generalization accuracy and robustness.

Instance-dependent Partial Label Learning (ID-PLL) aims to learn a multi-class predictive model given training instances annotated with candidate labels related to features, among which correct labels are hidden fixed but unknown. The previous works involve leveraging the identification capability of the training model itself to iteratively refine supervision information. However, these methods overlook a critical aspect of ID-PLL: within the original label space, the model may fail to distinguish some incorrect candidate labels that are strongly correlated with features from correct labels. This leads to poor-quality supervision signals and creates a bottleneck in the training process. In this paper, we propose to leverage reduction-based pseudo-labels to alleviate the influence of incorrect candidate labels and train our predictive model to overcome this bottleneck. Specifically, reduction-based pseudo-labels are generated by performing weighted aggregation on the outputs of a multi-branch auxiliary model, with each branch trained in a label subspace that excludes certain labels. This approach ensures that each branch explicitly avoids the disturbance of the excluded labels, allowing the pseudo-labels provided for instances troubled by these excluded labels to benefit from the unaffected branches. Theoretically, we demonstrate that reduction-based pseudolabels exhibit greater consistency with the Bayes optimal classifier compared to pseudo-labels directly generated from the training predictive model.

Quantifying uncertainty in deep regression models is important both for understanding the confidence of the model and for safe decision-making in high-risk domains. Existing approaches that yield prediction intervals overlook distributional information, neglecting the effect of multimodal or asymmetric distributions on decision-making.

Developing improved predictive models for multi-molecular systems is crucial, as nearly every chemical product used results from a mixture of chemicals. While being a vital part of the industry pipeline, the chemical mixture space remains relatively unexplored by the Machine Learning (ML) community. In this paper, we introduce CheMixHub, a holistic benchmark for molecular mixtures spanning a corpus of 11 chemical mixtures property prediction tasks. With applications ranging from drug delivery formulations to battery electrolytes, CheMixHub currently totals approximately 500k data points gathered and curated from 7 publicly available datasets. We devise various data splitting techniques to assess context-specific generalization and model robustness, providing a foundation for the development of predictive models for chemical mixture properties. Furthermore, we map out the modelling space of deep learning models for chemical mixtures, establishing initial benchmarks for the community. This dataset has the potential to accelerate chemical mixture development, encompassing reformulation, optimization, and discovery.

Instance-dependent Partial Label Learning (ID-PLL) aims to learn a multi-class predictive model given training instances annotated with candidate labels related to features, among which correct labels are hidden fixed but unknown. The previous works involve leveraging the identification capability of the training model itself to iteratively refine supervision information. However, these methods overlook a critical aspect of ID-PLL: within the original label space, the model may fail to distinguish some incorrect candidate labels that are strongly correlated with features from correct labels. This leads to poor-quality supervision signals and creates a bottleneck in the training process. In this paper, we propose to leverage reduction-based pseudo-labels to alleviate the influence of incorrect candidate labels and train our predictive model to overcome this bottleneck. Specifically, reduction-based pseudo-labels are generated by performing weighted aggregation on the outputs of a multi-branch auxiliary model, with each branch trained in a label subspace that excludes certain labels. This approach ensures that each branch explicitly avoids the disturbance of the excluded labels, allowing the pseudo-labels provided for instances troubled by these excluded labels to benefit from the unaffected branches. Theoretically, we demonstrate that reduction-based pseudo-labels exhibit greater consistency with the Bayes optimal classifier compared to pseudo-labels directly generated from the training predictive model.

Many real-world combinatorial problems involve uncertain parameters, which can be predicted given contextual features and historical data. These `predict-then-optimize' or `contextual optimization' problems have gained significant attention: end-to-end training methods can now minimize the downstream task cost rather than the predictive error. However, despite their effectiveness, these decision-focused learning (DFL) approaches often rely on repeated solving of the underlying combinatorial optimization problem during training, making them computationally expensive and difficult to scale. We reframe the learning problem as a cost-sensitive multi-output regression problem: multi-output due to the combinatorial problem having multiple uncertain parameters, and cost-sensitive due to the downstream task cost being the real target. Our technical contribution is the formalization of multiple loss function components that follow from this reframing: cost-insensitive normalization, decision-aware asymmetric penalization of over- and underpredictions, and instance-based costs that mimic the true downstream task-based loss locally. These components require zero or one solve per training data instance, while requiring no further solves during training. Experiments show that the combination of loss components achieves comparable downstream task quality to the state of the art, while being significantly more efficient, enabling scaling to problem sizes that have not been tackled before with DFL.

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior distribution of model parameters, and then propagating posterior samples through the predictive model via Monte Carlo simulation. This sequential workflow can be computationally demanding, particularly for high-fidelity models such as those governed by partial differential equations. We propose a variational Bayesian framework that directly targets the posterior-predictive distribution and jointly learns variational approximations of both the posterior and the corresponding predictive distribution. The formulation introduces a variational upper bound on the Kullback--Leibler divergence together with moment-based regularization terms. The variational distributions are trained in an amortized manner, shifting computational effort to an offline stage and enabling efficient online inference. Numerical experiments ranging from analytical benchmarks to a finite-element solid mechanics problem demonstrate that the proposed method achieves more accurate predictive distributions than conventional two-stage variational inference, while substantially reducing the cost of online predictive inference.

Proof of Proposition 1. Due to Jensen's inequality and the fact that, by assumption, the distribution of human predictions P(h|x) is not a point-mass, it holds that Eh[`(h(x),y) |x] > `(µh(x),y). Proof of Theorem 3. We first provide the proof of the unconstrained case. Note that the above problem is a linear program and it decouples with respect to x. Therefore, for each x, the optimal solution is clearly given by: π m(d= 1 |x) = 1 if Ey|x[`(m(x),y) Eh|x[`(h,y)]] >0 0 otherwise Next, we provide the proof of the constrained case. To this aim, we consider the dual formulation of the optimization problem, where we only introduce a Lagrangian multiplier τP,b for the first constraint, i.e., maximize Ex π(x) Ey,h|x[`(h,y)] Ey|x[`(m(x),y)] + Ex [τP,b(π(x) b)] (13) subject to 0 π(x) 1 x X. (14) 13 The inner minimization problem can be solved using the similar argument for the unconstrained case.