predictive capability
Physics-Informed Neural Network Frameworks for the Analysis of Engineering and Biological Dynamical Systems Governed by Ordinary Differential Equations
Whitman, Tyrus, Particka, Andrew, Diers, Christopher, Griffin, Ian, Wickramasinghe, Charuka, Ranaweera, Pradeep
In this study, we present and validate the predictive capability of the Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) methodology for solving a variety of engineering and biological dynamical systems governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). While traditional numerical methods a re effective for many ODEs, they often struggle to achieve convergence in problems involving high stiffness, shocks, irregular domains, singular perturbations, high dimensions, or boundary discontinuities. Alternatively, PINNs offer a powerful approach for handling challenging numerical scenarios. In this study, classical ODE problems are employed as controlled testbeds to systematically evaluate the accuracy, training efficiency, and generalization capability under controlled conditions of the PINNs framework. Although not a universal solution, PINNs can achieve superior results by embedding physical laws directly into the learning process. We first analyze the existence and uniqueness properties of several benchmark problems and subsequently validate the PINNs methodology on these model systems. Our results demonstrate that for complex problems to converge to correct solutions, the loss function components data loss, initial condition loss, and residual loss must be appropriately balanced through careful weighting. We further establish that systematic tuning of hyperparameters, including network depth, layer width, activation functions, learning rate, optimization algorithms, w eight initialization schemes, and collocation point sampling, plays a crucial role in achieving accurate solutions. Additionally, embedding prior knowledge and imposing hard constraints on the network architecture, without loss the generality of the ODE system, significantly enhances the predictive capability of PINNs.
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Neural Motion Simulator: Pushing the Limit of World Models in Reinforcement Learning
Hao, Chenjie, Lu, Weyl, Xu, Yifan, Chen, Yubei
An embodied system must not only model the patterns of the external world but also understand its own motion dynamics. A motion dynamic model is essential for efficient skill acquisition and effective planning. In this work, we introduce the neural motion simulator (MoSim), a world model that predicts the future physical state of an embodied system based on current observations and actions. MoSim achieves state-of-the-art performance in physical state prediction and provides competitive performance across a range of downstream tasks. This works shows that when a world model is accurate enough and performs precise long-horizon predictions, it can facilitate efficient skill acquisition in imagined worlds and even enable zero-shot reinforcement learning. Furthermore, MoSim can transform any model-free reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm into a model-based approach, effectively decoupling physical environment modeling from RL algorithm development. This separation allows for independent advancements in RL algorithms and world modeling, significantly improving sample efficiency and enhancing generalization capabilities. Our findings highlight that world models for motion dynamics is a promising direction for developing more versatile and capable embodied systems.
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Biologically Inspired Swarm Dynamic Target Tracking and Obstacle Avoidance
This study proposes a novel artificial intelligence (AI) driven flight computer, integrating an online free-retraining-prediction model, a swarm control, and an obstacle avoidance strategy, to track dynamic targets using a distributed drone swarm for military applications. To enable dynamic target tracking the swarm requires a trajectory prediction capability to achieve intercept allowing for the tracking of rapid maneuvers and movements while maintaining efficient path planning. Traditional predicative methods such as curve fitting or Long ShortTerm Memory (LSTM) have low robustness and struggle with dynamic target tracking in the short term due to slow convergence of single agent-based trajectory prediction and often require extensive offline training or tuning to be effective. Consequently, this paper introduces a novel robust adaptive bidirectional fuzzy brain emotional learning prediction (BFBEL-P) methodology to address these challenges. The controller integrates a fuzzy interface, a neural network enabling rapid adaption, predictive capability and multi-agent solving enabling multiple solutions to be aggregated to achieve rapid convergence times and high accuracy in both the short and long term. This was verified through the use of numerical simulations seeing complex trajectory being predicted and tracked by a swarm of drones. These simulations show improved adaptability and accuracy to state of the art methods in the short term and strong results over long time domains, enabling accurate swarm target tracking and predictive capability.
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Temporal Convolution Derived Multi-Layered Reservoir Computing
Viehweg, Johannes, Walther, Dominik, Mäder, Prof. Dr. -Ing. Patrick
The prediction of time series is a challenging task relevant in such diverse applications as analyzing financial data, forecasting flow dynamics or understanding biological processes. Especially chaotic time series that depend on a long history pose an exceptionally difficult problem. While machine learning has shown to be a promising approach for predicting such time series, it either demands long training time and much training data when using deep recurrent neural networks. Alternative, when using a reservoir computing approach it comes with high uncertainty and typically a high number of random initializations and extensive hyper-parameter tuning when using a reservoir computing approach. In this paper, we focus on the reservoir computing approach and propose a new mapping of input data into the reservoir's state space. Furthermore, we incorporate this method in two novel network architectures increasing parallelizability, depth and predictive capabilities of the neural network while reducing the dependence on randomness. For the evaluation, we approximate a set of time series from the Mackey-Glass equation, inhabiting non-chaotic as well as chaotic behavior and compare our approaches in regard to their predictive capabilities to echo state networks and gated recurrent units. For the chaotic time series, we observe an error reduction of up to $85.45\%$ and up to $87.90\%$ in contrast to echo state networks and gated recurrent units respectively. Furthermore, we also observe tremendous improvements for non-chaotic time series of up to $99.99\%$ in contrast to existing approaches.
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Predictive Simultaneous Interpretation: Harnessing Large Language Models for Democratizing Real-Time Multilingual Communication
Iida, Kurando, Mimura, Kenjiro, Ito, Nobuo
This study introduces a groundbreaking approach to simultaneous interpretation by directly leveraging the predictive capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). We present a novel algorithm that generates real-time translations by predicting speaker utterances and expanding multiple possibilities in a tree-like structure. This method demonstrates unprecedented flexibility and adaptability, potentially overcoming the structural differences between languages more effectively than existing systems. Our theoretical analysis, supported by illustrative examples, suggests that this approach could lead to more natural and fluent translations with minimal latency. The primary purpose of this paper is to share this innovative concept with the academic community, stimulating further research and development in this field. We discuss the theoretical foundations, potential advantages, and implementation challenges of this technique, positioning it as a significant step towards democratizing multilingual communication.
An AIC-based approach for articulating unpredictable problems in open complex environments
AL-Shareefy, Haider, Butler, Michael, Hoang, Thai Son
This research paper presents an approach to enhancing the predictive capability of architects in the design and assurance of systems, focusing on systems operating in dynamic and unpredictable environments. By adopting a systems approach, we aim to improve architects' predictive capabilities in designing dependable systems (for example, ML-based systems). An aerospace case study is used to illustrate the approach. Multiple factors (challenges) influencing aircraft detection are identified, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach in a complex operational setting. Our approach primarily aimed to enhance the architect's predictive capability.
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Forecasting SEP Events During Solar Cycles 23 and 24 Using Interpretable Machine Learning
Kasapis, Spiridon, Kitiashvili, Irina N., Kosovich, Paul, Kosovichev, Alexander G., Sadykov, Viacheslav M., O'Keefe, Patrick, Wang, Vincent
ABSTRACT Prediction of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events garner increasing interest as space missions extend beyond Earth's protective magnetosphere. These events, which are, in most cases, products of magnetic reconnection-driven processes during solar flares or fast coronal-mass-ejection-driven shock waves, pose significant radiation hazards to aviation, space-based electronics, and particularly, space exploration. In this work, we utilize the recently developed dataset that combines the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager's (SDO/HMI) Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager's (SoHO/MDI) Space Weather MDI Active Region Patches (SMARP). We employ a suite of machine learning strategies, including Support Vector Machines (SVM) and regression models, to evaluate the predictive potential of this new data product for a forecast of post-solar flare SEP events. Our study indicates that despite the augmented volume of data, the prediction accuracy reaches 0.7 0.1, which aligns with but does not exceed these published benchmarks. A linear SVM model with training and testing configurations that mimic an operational setting (positive-negative imbalance) reveals a slight increase (+0.04 0.05) in the accuracy of a 14-hour SEP forecast compared to previous studies. This outcome emphasizes the imperative for more sophisticated, physics-informed models to better understand the underlying processes leading to SEP events. INTRODUCTION Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are one of the manifestations of solar activity that may significantly impact the conditions of the space environment. For example, the large solar particle event of September 2017 emphasized a significant surge in the charged and neutral particle flux that was able to reach Mars' surface (Zeitlin et al. 2018). While the doses from this specific event were below NASA's stipulated radiation exposure limits for astronauts, the risk for future explorers is evident. This concern becomes particularly relevant in scenarios where human explorers might be far from their habitats on other celestial bodies, with the onset of an event leaving them vulnerable to enhanced radiation doses. Therefore, forecasting and predicting SEP events is paramount. SEP events vary in intensity, spanning from suprathermal (few keV) up to relativistic (few GeV) energies, and are accelerated near the Sun either by magnetic reconnection-driven processes during solar flares or by fast Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).
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Knowledge Extraction with Interval Temporal Logic Decision Trees
Sciavicco, Guido, Eduard, Stan Ionel
Multivariate temporal, or time, series classification is, in a way, the temporal generalization of (numeric) classification, as every instance is described by multiple time series instead of multiple values. Symbolic classification is the machine learning strategy to extract explicit knowledge from a data set, and the problem of symbolic classification of multivariate temporal series requires the design, implementation, and test of ad-hoc machine learning algorithms, such as, for example, algorithms for the extraction of temporal versions of decision trees. One of the most well-known algorithms for decision tree extraction from categorical data is Quinlan's ID3, which was later extended to deal with numerical attributes, resulting in an algorithm known as C4.5, and implemented in many open-sources data mining libraries, including the so-called Weka, which features an implementation of C4.5 called J48. ID3 was recently generalized to deal with temporal data in form of timelines, which can be seen as discrete (categorical) versions of multivariate time series, and such a generalization, based on the interval temporal logic HS, is known as Temporal ID3. In this paper we introduce Temporal C4.5, that allows the extraction of temporal decision trees from undiscretized multivariate time series, describe its implementation, called Temporal J48, and discuss the outcome of a set of experiments with the latter on a collection of public data sets, comparing the results with those obtained by other, classical, multivariate time series classification methods.
Police using AI could lead to 'predictive' crime prevention 'slippery slope,' experts argue
Recording Industry Association of America CEO Mitch Glazier says the Human Artistry Campaign aims to protect professional creators' rights to their performances, voices and likenesses after AI creates Drake and The Weeknd songs. A pilot program in the U.K. to enhance police capabilities via artificial intelligence has proven successful but could pave the way for a slide into a future of "predictive policing," experts told Fox News Digital. "Artificial intelligence is a tool, like a firearm is a tool, and it can be useful, it can be deadly," Christopher Alexander, CCO of Liberty Blockchain, told Fox News Digital. "In terms of the Holy Grail here, I really think it is the predictive analytics capability that if they get better at that, you have some very frightening capabilities." British police in different communities have experimented with an artificial intelligence-powered (AI) system to help catch drivers committing violations, such as using their phones while driving or driving without a seat belt.
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How AI is transforming remote cardiac care for patients - MedCity News
The pandemic accelerated the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) in remote patient care. Physicians are increasingly using digital patient monitoring to better track health data, identify abnormalities, and provide patient-specific treatment -- all without the need for in-person interaction. Additionally, emergency departments are employing remote monitoring solutions to allow some patients to leave the hospital sooner. These transformative technologies are leading to better outcomes for patients and reduced healthcare costs. AI use cases continue to grow in healthcare, as constant learning and training of algorithms results in smarter technology as well as improved patient experiences. Most AI applications in healthcare use "augmented intelligence," which curates the algorithms' output to provide clinicians with direction on "where to look" when they get the analysis.
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