Despite the growing popularity of machine-learning techniques in decision-making, the added value of causal-oriented strategies with respect to pure machine-learning approaches has rarely been quantified in the literature. These strategies are crucial for practitioners in various domains, such as marketing, telecommunications, health care and finance. This paper presents a comprehensive treatment of the subject, starting from firm theoretical foundations and highlighting the parameters that influence the performance of the uplift and predictive approaches. The focus of the paper is on a binary outcome case and a binary action, and the paper presents a theoretical analysis of uplift modeling, comparing it with the classical predictive approach. The main research contributions of the paper include a new formulation of the measure of profit, a formal proof of the convergence of the uplift curve to the measure of profit ,and an illustration, through simulations, of the conditions under which predictive approaches still outperform uplift modeling. We show that the mutual information between the features and the outcome plays a significant role, along with the variance of the estimators, the distribution of the potential outcomes and the underlying costs and benefits of the treatment and the outcome.

Data science has the potential to improve business in a variety of verticals. While the lion's share of data science projects uses a predictive approach, to drive improvements these predictions should become decisions. However, such a two-step approach is not only sub-optimal but might even degrade performance and fail the project. The alternative is to follow a prescriptive framing, where actions are "first citizens" so that the model produces a policy that prescribes an action to take, rather than predicting an outcome. In this paper, we explain why the prescriptive approach is important and provide a step-by-step methodology: the Prescriptive Canvas. The latter aims to improve framing and communication across the project stakeholders including project and data science managers towards a successful business impact.

Humans constantly interact with digital devices that disregard their feelings. However, the synergy between human and technology can be strengthened if the technology is able to distinguish and react to human emotions. Models that rely on unconscious indications of human emotions, such as (neuro)physiological signals, hold promise in personalization of feedback and adaptation of the interaction. The current study elaborated on adopting a predictive approach in studying human emotional processing based on brain activity. More specifically, we investigated the proposition of predicting self-reported human empathy based on EEG cortical asymmetry in different areas of the brain. Different types of predictive models i.e. multiple linear regression analyses as well as binary and multiclass classifications were evaluated. Results showed that lateralization of brain oscillations at specific frequency bands is an important predictor of self-reported empathy scores. Additionally, prominent classification performance was found during resting-state which suggests that emotional stimulation is not required for accurate prediction of empathy -- as a personality trait -- based on EEG data. Our findings not only contribute to the general understanding of the mechanisms of empathy, but also facilitate a better grasp on the advantages of applying a predictive approach compared to hypothesis-driven studies in neuropsychological research. More importantly, our results could be employed in the development of brain-computer interfaces that assist people with difficulties in expressing or recognizing emotions.

Aiming to facilitate logistics by bringing predictive approaches to transportation and delivery processes, FarEye received an investment of $ 25 million in the D Series investment tour led by Microsoft's corporate venture fund M12. Aiming to facilitate logistics by bringing predictive approaches to transportation and delivery processes, FarEye received an investment of $ 25 million in the D Series investment tour led by Microsoft's corporate venture fund M12. Eight Roads Ventures, Honeywell Ventures and SAIF Partners, one of the venture's previous investors, were the new tour participants. FarEye, which currently has more than 350 employees, aims to increase the number of employees over 500 in a short time. He states that he will use the new investment he received in Europe, Asia and the USA to increase the capabilities of the platform, gain more customers and open to new markets.

Pseudo-random number generators (PRNG) are a fundamental element of many security algorithms. We introduce a novel approach to their implementation, by proposing the use of generative adversarial networks (GAN) to train a neural network to behave as a PRNG. Furthermore, we showcase a number of interesting modifications to the standard GAN architecture. The most significant is partially concealing the output of the GAN's generator, and training the adversary to discover a mapping from the overt part to the concealed part. The generator therefore learns to produce values the adversary cannot predict, rather than to approximate an explicit reference distribution. We demonstrate that a GAN can effectively train even a small feed-forward fully connected neural network to produce pseudo-random number sequences with good statistical properties. At best, subjected to the NIST test suite, the trained generator passed around 99% of test instances and 98% of overall tests, outperforming a number of standard non-cryptographic PRNGs.

In recent years there has been rising interest in the use of programming-by-example techniques to assist users in data manipulation tasks. Such techniques rely on an explicit input-output examples specification from the user to automatically synthesize programs. However, in a wide range of data extraction tasks it is easy for a human observer to predict the desired extraction by just observing the input data itself. Such predictive intelligence has not yet been explored in program synthesis research, and is what we address in this work. We describe a predictive program synthesis algorithm that infers programs in a general form of extraction DSLs (domain specific languages) given input-only examples. We describe concrete instantiations of such DSLs and the synthesis algorithm in the two practical application domains of text extraction and web extraction, and present an evaluation of our technique on a range of extraction tasks encountered in practice.

Gaussian Processes are powerful regression models specified by parametrized mean and covariance functions. Standard approaches to estimate these parameters (known by the name Hyperparameters) are Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Maximum APosterior (MAP) approaches. In this paper, we propose and investigate predictive approaches, namely, maximization of Geisser's Surrogate Predictive Probability (GPP) and minimization of mean square error with respect to GPP (referred to as Geisser's Predictive mean square Error (GPE)) to estimate the hyperparameters. We also derive results for the standard Cross-Validation (CV) error and make a comparison. These approaches are tested on a number of problems and experimental results show that these approaches are strongly competitive to existing approaches. 1 Introduction Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful regression models that have gained popularity recently, though they have appeared in different forms in the literature for years.

Gaussian Processes are powerful regression models specified by parametrized mean and covariance functions. Standard approaches to estimate these parameters (known by the name Hyperparameters) are Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Maximum APosterior (MAP) approaches. In this paper, we propose and investigate predictive approaches, namely, maximization of Geisser's Surrogate Predictive Probability (GPP) and minimization of mean square error with respect to GPP (referred to as Geisser's Predictive mean square Error (GPE)) to estimate the hyperparameters. We also derive results for the standard Cross-Validation (CV) error and make a comparison. These approaches are tested on a number of problems and experimental results show that these approaches are strongly competitive to existing approaches. 1 Introduction Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful regression models that have gained popularity recently, though they have appeared in different forms in the literature for years.

Gaussian Processes are powerful regression models specified by parametrized mean and covariance functions. Standard approaches to estimate these parameters (known by the name Hyperparameters) areMaximum Likelihood (ML) and Maximum APosterior (MAP) approaches. In this paper, we propose and investigate predictive approaches,namely, maximization of Geisser's Surrogate Predictive Probability (GPP) and minimization of mean square error withrespect to GPP (referred to as Geisser's Predictive mean square Error (GPE)) to estimate the hyperparameters. We also derive results for the standard Cross-Validation (CV) error and make a comparison. These approaches are tested on a number of problems and experimental results show that these approaches are strongly competitive to existing approaches. 1 Introduction Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful regression models that have gained popularity recently,though they have appeared in different forms in the literature for years.