Under missing-not-at-random (MNAR) sample selection bias, the performance of a prediction model is often degraded. This paper focuses on one classic instance of MNAR sample selection bias where a subset of samples have non-randomly missing outcomes. The Heckman selection model and its variants have commonly been used to handle this type of sample selection bias. The Heckman model uses two separate equations to model the prediction and selection of samples, where the selection features include all prediction features. When using the Heckman model, the prediction features must be properly chosen from the set of selection features. However, choosing the proper prediction features is a challenging task for the Heckman model. This is especially the case when the number of selection features is large. Existing approaches that use the Heckman model often provide a manually chosen set of prediction features. In this paper, we propose Heckman-FA as a novel data-driven framework for obtaining prediction features for the Heckman model. Heckman-FA first trains an assignment function that determines whether or not a selection feature is assigned as a prediction feature. Using the parameters of the trained function, the framework extracts a suitable set of prediction features based on the goodness-of-fit of the prediction model given the chosen prediction features and the correlation between noise terms of the prediction and selection equations. Experimental results on real-world datasets show that Heckman-FA produces a robust regression model under MNAR sample selection bias.

The general sequential decision-making problem, which includes Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) as special cases, aims at maximizing a cumulative reward by making a sequence of decisions based on a history of observations and actions over time. Recent studies have shown that the sequential decision-making problem is statistically learnable if it admits a low-rank structure modeled by predictive state representations (PSRs). Despite these advancements, existing approaches typically involve oracles or steps that are not computationally efficient. On the other hand, the upper confidence bound (UCB) based approaches, which have served successfully as computationally efficient methods in bandits and MDPs, have not been investigated for more general PSRs, due to the difficulty of optimistic bonus design in these more challenging settings. This paper proposes the first known UCB-type approach for PSRs, featuring a novel bonus term that upper bounds the total variation distance between the estimated and true models. We further characterize the sample complexity bounds for our designed UCB-type algorithms for both online and offline PSRs. In contrast to existing approaches for PSRs, our UCB-type algorithms enjoy computational efficiency, last-iterate guaranteed near-optimal policy, and guaranteed model accuracy.