Earth system forecasting has traditionally relied on complex physical models that are computationally expensive and require significant domain expertise.In the past decade, the unprecedented increase in spatiotemporal Earth observation data has enabled data-driven forecasting models using deep learning techniques.These models have shown promise for diverse Earth system forecasting tasks but either struggle with handling uncertainty or neglect domain-specific prior knowledge, resulting in averaging possible futures to blurred forecasts or generating physically implausible predictions.To address these limitations, we propose a two-stage pipeline for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting: 1) We develop, a conditional latent diffusion model capable of probabilistic forecasts.

With the goal of making high-resolution forecasts of regional rainfall, precipitation nowcasting has become an important and fundamental technology underlying various public services ranging from rainstorm warnings to flight safety. Recently, the Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) model has been shown to outperform traditional optical flow based methods for precipitation nowcasting, suggesting that deep learning models have a huge potential for solving the problem. However, the convolutional recurrence structure in ConvLSTM-based models is location-invariant while natural motion and transformation (e.g., rotation) are location-variant in general. Furthermore, since deep-learning-based precipitation nowcasting is a newly emerging area, clear evaluation protocols have not yet been established. To address these problems, we propose both a new model and a benchmark for precipitation nowcasting. Specifically, we go beyond ConvLSTM and propose the Trajectory GRU (TrajGRU) model that can actively learn the location-variant structure for recurrent connections. Besides, we provide a benchmark that includes a real-world large-scale dataset from the Hong Kong Observatory, a new training loss, and a comprehensive evaluation protocol to facilitate future research and gauge the state of the art.

Earth system forecasting has traditionally relied on complex physical models that are computationally expensive and require significant domain expertise.In the past decade, the unprecedented increase in spatiotemporal Earth observation data has enabled data-driven forecasting models using deep learning techniques.These models have shown promise for diverse Earth system forecasting tasks but either struggle with handling uncertainty or neglect domain-specific prior knowledge, resulting in averaging possible futures to blurred forecasts or generating physically implausible predictions.To address these limitations, we propose a two-stage pipeline for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting: 1) We develop PreDiff, a conditional latent diffusion model capable of probabilistic forecasts. This is achieved by estimating the deviation from imposed constraints at each denoising step and adjusting the transition distribution accordingly.We conduct empirical studies on two datasets: N-body MNIST, a synthetic dataset with chaotic behavior, and SEVIR, a real-world precipitation nowcasting dataset. Specifically, we impose the law of conservation of energy in N-body MNIST and anticipated precipitation intensity in SEVIR. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of PreDiff in handling uncertainty, incorporating domain-specific prior knowledge, and generating forecasts that exhibit high operational utility.

Climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme precipitation events, making weather disasters such as flooding and landslides more likely. The ability to accurately nowcast precipitation is therefore becoming more critical for safeguarding society by providing immediate, accurate information to decision makers. Motivated by the recent success of generative models at precipitation nowcasting, this paper: extends the DYffusion framework to this task and evaluates its performance at forecasting IMERG satellite precipitation data up to a 4-hour horizon; modifies the DYffusion framework to improve its ability to model rainfall data; and introduces a novel loss function that combines MSE, MAE and the LPIPS perceptual score. In a quantitative evaluation of forecasts up to a 4-hour horizon, the modified DYffusion framework trained with the novel loss outperforms four competitor models. It has the highest CSI scores for weak, moderate, and heavy rain thresholds and retains an LPIPS score $<$ 0.2 for the entire roll-out, degrading the least as lead-time increases. The proposed nowcasting model demonstrates visually stable and sharp forecasts up to a 2-hour horizon on a heavy rain case study. Code is available at https://github.com/Dseal95/DYffcast.

Precipitation nowcasting is crucial across various industries and plays a significant role in mitigating and adapting to climate change. We introduce an efficient deep learning model for precipitation nowcasting, capable of predicting rainfall up to 8 hours in advance with greater accuracy than existing operational physics-based and extrapolation-based models. Our model leverages multi-source meteorological data and physics-based forecasts to deliver high-resolution predictions in both time and space. It captures complex spatio-temporal dynamics through temporal attention networks and is optimized using data quality maps and dynamic thresholds. Experiments demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art, and highlight its potential for fast reliable responses to evolving weather conditions.

The goal of precipitation nowcasting is to predict the future rainfall intensity in a local region over a relatively short period of time. Very few previous studies have examined this crucial and challenging weather forecasting problem from the machine learning perspective. In this paper, we formulate precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem in which both the input and the prediction target are spatiotemporal sequences. By extending the fully connected LSTM (FC-LSTM) to have convolutional structures in both the input-to-state and state-to-state transitions, we propose the convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) and use it to build an end-to-end trainable model for the precipitation nowcasting problem. Experiments show that our ConvLSTM network captures spatiotemporal correlations better and consistently outperforms FC-LSTM and the state-of-the-art operational ROVER algorithm for precipitation nowcasting.

This paper introduces TrajGRU, an extension of the convolutional LSTM/GRU. Contrary to convLSTM/GRU, TrajGRU aims at learning location dependant filter support for each hidden state location. TrajGRU generates a flow field from the current input and previous hidden state and then warp the previous hidden states through bilinear sampling following this flow field. Author evaluate their proposal on a video generation on two datasets, MovingMNIST having 3 digits at the same time and HKO-7 nowcasting dataset, where TrajRU outperforms their convolutional counterpart. Few specific question/remarks: Did you compare TrajGRU with ConvGRU having a larger support than just a 5x5 kernels?

Nowcasting leverages real-time atmospheric conditions to forecast weather over short periods. State-of-the-art models, including PySTEPS, encounter difficulties in accurately forecasting extreme weather events because of their unpredictable distribution patterns. In this study, we design a physics-informed neural network to perform precipitation nowcasting using the precipitation and meteorological data from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). This model draws inspiration from the novel Physics-Informed Discriminator GAN (PID-GAN) formulation, directly integrating physics-based supervision within the adversarial learning framework. The proposed model adopts a GAN structure, featuring a Vector Quantization Generative Adversarial Network (VQ-GAN) and a Transformer as the generator, with a temporal discriminator serving as the discriminator. Our findings demonstrate that the PID-GAN model outperforms numerical and SOTA deep generative models in terms of precipitation nowcasting downstream metrics.

Climate change has led to an increase in frequency of extreme weather events. Early warning systems can prevent disasters and loss of life. Managing such events remain a challenge for both public and private institutions. Precipitation nowcasting can help relevant institutions to better prepare for such events. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) has traditionally been used to make physics based forecasting, and recently deep learning based approaches have been used to reduce turn-around time for nowcasting. In this work, recently proposed Swin-UNETR (Swin UNEt TRansformer) is used for precipitation nowcasting for ten different regions of Europe. Swin-UNETR utilizes a U-shaped network within which a swin transformer-based encoder extracts multi-scale features from multiple input channels of satellite image, while CNN-based decoder makes the prediction. Trained model is capable of nowcasting not only for the regions for which data is available, but can also be used for new regions for which data is not available.

This paper presents a solution to the Weather4Cast 2023 competition, where the goal is to forecast high-resolution precipitation with an 8-hour lead time using lower-resolution satellite radiance images. We propose a simple, yet effective method for spatiotemporal feature learning using a 2D U-Net model, that outperforms the official 3D U-Net baseline in both performance and efficiency. We place emphasis on refining the dataset, through importance sampling and dataset preparation, and show that such techniques have a significant impact on performance. We further study an alternative cross-entropy loss function that improves performance over the standard mean squared error loss, while also enabling models to produce probabilistic outputs. Additional techniques are explored regarding the generation of predictions at different lead times, specifically through Conditioning Lead Time. Lastly, to generate high-resolution forecasts, we evaluate standard and learned upsampling methods.