pre-trained weather model
Global Vegetation Modeling with Pre-Trained Weather Transformers
Janetzky, Pascal, Gallusser, Florian, Hentschel, Simon, Hotho, Andreas, Krause, Anna
Accurate vegetation models can produce further insights into the complex interaction between vegetation activity and ecosystem processes. Previous research has established that long-term trends and short-term variability of temperature and precipitation affect vegetation activity. Motivated by the recent success of Transformer-based Deep Learning models for medium-range weather forecasting, we adapt the publicly available pre-trained FourCastNet to model vegetation activity while accounting for the short-term dynamics of climate variability. We investigate how the learned global representation of the atmosphere's state can be transferred to model the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Our model globally estimates vegetation activity at a resolution of \SI{0.25}{\degree} while relying only on meteorological data. We demonstrate that leveraging pre-trained weather models improves the NDVI estimates compared to learning an NDVI model from scratch. Additionally, we compare our results to other recent data-driven NDVI modeling approaches from machine learning and ecology literature. We further provide experimental evidence on how much data and training time is necessary to turn FourCastNet into an effective vegetation model. Code and models will be made available upon publication.
W-MAE: Pre-trained weather model with masked autoencoder for multi-variable weather forecasting
Man, Xin, Zhang, Chenghong, Feng, Jin, Li, Changyu, Shao, Jie
Weather forecasting is a long-standing computational challenge with direct societal and economic impacts. This task involves a large amount of continuous data collection and exhibits rich spatiotemporal dependencies over long periods, making it highly suitable for deep learning models. In this paper, we apply pre-training techniques to weather forecasting and propose W-MAE, a Weather model with Masked AutoEncoder pre-training for weather forecasting. W-MAE is pre-trained in a self-supervised manner to reconstruct spatial correlations within meteorological variables. On the temporal scale, we fine-tune the pre-trained W-MAE to predict the future states of meteorological variables, thereby modeling the temporal dependencies present in weather data. We conduct our experiments using the fifth-generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) data, with samples selected every six hours. Experimental results show that our W-MAE framework offers three key benefits: 1) when predicting the future state of meteorological variables, the utilization of our pre-trained W-MAE can effectively alleviate the problem of cumulative errors in prediction, maintaining stable performance in the short-to-medium term; 2) when predicting diagnostic variables (e.g., total precipitation), our model exhibits significant performance advantages over FourCastNet; 3) Our task-agnostic pre-training schema can be easily integrated with various task-specific models. When our pre-training framework is applied to FourCastNet, it yields an average 20% performance improvement in Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC).