Current theoretical results on optimization trajectories of neural networks trained by gradient descent typically have the form of rigorous but potentially loose bounds on the loss values. In the present work we take a different approach and show that the learning trajectory of a wide network in a lazy training regime can be characterized by an explicit asymptotic at large training times. Specifically, the leading term in the asymptotic expansion of the loss behaves as a power law L(t) Ct ξ with exponent ξ expressed only through the data dimension, the smoothness of the activation function, and the class of function being approximated. Our results are based on spectral analysis of the integral operator representing the linearized evolution of a large network trained on the expected loss. Importantly, the techniques we employ do not require a specific form of the data distribution, for example Gaussian, thus making our findings sufficiently universal.

Longer contexts present a new attack surface for adversarial attacks. In search of a "fruit-fly" of long-context vulnerabilities, we study Many-shot Jailbreaking (MSJ; Figure 1), a simple yet effective and scalable jailbreak.

We explain the discrepancy by reproducing the Kaplan et al. scaling law on two datasets (OpenWebText2 and RefinedWeb)

Despite the fact that experimental neural scaling laws have substantially guided empirical progress in large-scale machine learning, no existing theory can quantitatively predict the exponents of these important laws for any modern LLM trained on any natural language dataset. We provide the first such theory in the case of data-limited scaling laws. We isolate two key statistical properties of language that alone can predict neural scaling exponents: (i) the decay of pairwise token correlations with time separation between token pairs, and (ii) the decay of the next-token conditional entropy with the length of the conditioning context. We further derive a simple formula in terms of these statistics that predicts data-limited neural scaling exponents from first principles without any free parameters or synthetic data models. Our theory exhibits a remarkable match with experimentally measured neural scaling laws obtained from training GPT-2 and LLaMA style models from scratch on two qualitatively different benchmarks, TinyStories and WikiText.

Inthiswork, we focus on a classification problem and investigate the behavior of both noncalibrated and calibrated negativelog-likelihood (CNLL) ofadeep ensemble as a function of the ensemble size and the member network size.