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Learning to Hedge Swaptions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper investigates the deep hedging framework, based on reinforcement learning (RL), for the dynamic hedging of swaptions, contrasting its performance with traditional sensitivity-based rho-hedging. We design agents under three distinct objective functions (mean squared error, downside risk, and Conditional Value-at-Risk) to capture alternative risk preferences and evaluate how these objectives shape hedging styles. Relying on a three-factor arbitrage-free dynamic Nelson-Siegel model for our simulation experiments, our findings show that near-optimal hedging effectiveness is achieved when using two swaps as hedging instruments. Deep hedging strategies dynamically adapt the hedging portfolio's exposure to risk factors across states of the market. In our experiments, their out-performance over rho-hedging strategies persists even in the presence some of model misspecification. These results highlight RL's potential to deliver more efficient and resilient swaption hedging strategies.


Deep Reinforcement Learning for Automated Stock Trading: An Ensemble Strategy

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Stock trading strategies play a critical role in investment. However, it is challenging to design a profitable strategy in a complex and dynamic stock market. In this paper, we propose an ensemble strategy that employs deep reinforcement schemes to learn a stock trading strategy by maximizing investment return. We train a deep reinforcement learning agent and obtain an ensemble trading strategy using three actor-critic based algorithms: Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), Advantage Actor Critic (A2C), and Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG). The ensemble strategy inherits and integrates the best features of the three algorithms, thereby robustly adjusting to different market situations. In order to avoid the large memory consumption in training networks with continuous action space, we employ a load-on-demand technique for processing very large data. We test our algorithms on the 30 Dow Jones stocks that have adequate liquidity. The performance of the trading agent with different reinforcement learning algorithms is evaluated and compared with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average index and the traditional min-variance portfolio allocation strategy. The proposed deep ensemble strategy is shown to outperform the three individual algorithms and two baselines in terms of the risk-adjusted return measured by the Sharpe ratio. This work is fully open-sourced at \href{https://github.com/AI4Finance-Foundation/Deep-Reinforcement-Learning-for-Automated-Stock-Trading-Ensemble-Strategy-ICAIF-2020}{GitHub}.


Exploratory Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization with Regime-Switching Market Dynamics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Considering the continuous-time Mean-Variance (MV) portfolio optimization problem, we study a regime-switching market setting and apply reinforcement learning (RL) techniques to assist informed exploration within the control space. We introduce and solve the Exploratory Mean Variance with Regime Switching (EMVRS) problem. We also present a Policy Improvement Theorem. Further, we recognize that the widely applied Temporal Difference (TD) learning is not adequate for the EMVRS context, hence we consider Orthogonality Condition (OC) learning, leveraging the martingale property of the induced optimal value function from the analytical solution to EMVRS. We design a RL algorithm that has more meaningful parameterization using the market parameters and propose an updating scheme for each parameter. Our empirical results demonstrate the superiority of OC learning over TD learning with a clear convergence of the market parameters towards their corresponding ``grounding true" values in a simulated market scenario. In a real market data study, EMVRS with OC learning outperforms its counterparts with the highest mean and reasonably low volatility of the annualized portfolio returns.


A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework For Financial Portfolio Management

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this research paper, we investigate into a paper named "A Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework for the Financial Portfolio Management Problem" [arXiv:1706.10059]. It is a portfolio management problem which is solved by deep learning techniques. The original paper proposes a financial-model-free reinforcement learning framework, which consists of the Ensemble of Identical Independent Evaluators (EIIE) topology, a Portfolio-Vector Memory (PVM), an Online Stochastic Batch Learning (OSBL) scheme, and a fully exploiting and explicit reward function. Three different instants are used to realize this framework, namely a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a basic Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). The performance is then examined by comparing to a number of recently reviewed or published portfolio-selection strategies. We have successfully replicated their implementations and evaluations. Besides, we further apply this framework in the stock market, instead of the cryptocurrency market that the original paper uses. The experiment in the cryptocurrency market is consistent with the original paper, which achieve superior returns. But it doesn't perform as well when applied in the stock market.


A General Framework on Enhancing Portfolio Management with Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Portfolio management is the art and science in fiance that concerns continuous reallocation of funds and assets across financial instruments to meet the desired returns to risk profile. Deep reinforcement learning (RL) has gained increasing interest in portfolio management, where RL agents are trained base on financial data to optimize the asset reallocation process. Though there are prior efforts in trying to combine RL and portfolio management, previous works did not consider practical aspects such as transaction costs or short selling restrictions, limiting their applicability. To address these limitations, we propose a general RL framework for asset management that enables continuous asset weights, short selling and making decisions with relevant features. We compare the performance of three different RL algorithms: Policy Gradient with Actor-Critic (PGAC), Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), and Evolution Strategies (ES) and demonstrate their advantages in a simulated environment with transaction costs. Our work aims to provide more options for utilizing RL frameworks in real-life asset management scenarios and can benefit further research in financial applications.


Cryptocurrency Portfolio Optimization by Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Many cryptocurrency brokers nowadays offer a variety of derivative assets that allow traders to perform hedging or speculation. This paper proposes an effective algorithm based on neural networks to take advantage of these investment products. The proposed algorithm constructs a portfolio that contains a pair of negatively correlated assets. A deep neural network, which outputs the allocation weight of each asset at a time interval, is trained to maximize the Sharpe ratio. A novel loss term is proposed to regulate the network's bias towards a specific asset, thus enforcing the network to learn an allocation strategy that is close to a minimum variance strategy. Extensive experiments were conducted using data collected from Binance spanning 19 months to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. The backtest results show that the proposed algorithm can produce neural networks that are able to make profits in different market situations.


An intelligent algorithmic trading based on a risk-return reinforcement learning algorithm

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This scientific paper propose a novel portfolio optimization model using an improved deep reinforcement learning algorithm. The objective function of the optimization model is the weighted sum of the expectation and value at risk(VaR) of portfolio cumulative return. The proposed algorithm is based on actor-critic architecture, in which the main task of critical network is to learn the distribution of portfolio cumulative return using quantile regression, and actor network outputs the optimal portfolio weight by maximizing the objective function mentioned above. Meanwhile, we exploit a linear transformation function to realize asset short selling. Finally, A multi-process method is used, called Ape-x, to accelerate the speed of deep reinforcement learning training. To validate our proposed approach, we conduct backtesting for two representative portfolios and observe that the proposed model in this work is superior to the benchmark strategies.


Trading Signals In VIX Futures

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a new approach for trading VIX futures. We assume that the term structure of VIX futures follows a Markov model. Our trading strategy selects a position in VIX futures by maximizing the expected utility for a day-ahead horizon given the current shape and level of the term structure. Computationally, we model the functional dependence between the VIX futures curve, the VIX futures positions, and the expected utility as a deep neural network with five hidden layers. Out-of-sample backtests of the VIX futures trading strategy suggest that this approach gives rise to reasonable portfolio performance, and to positions in which the investor will be either long or short VIX futures contracts depending on the market environment.


RCURRENCY: Live Digital Asset Trading Using a Recurrent Neural Network-based Forecasting System

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Consistent alpha generation, i.e., maintaining an edge over the market, underpins the ability of asset traders to reliably generate profits. Technical indicators and trading strategies are commonly used tools to determine when to buy/hold/sell assets, yet these are limited by the fact that they operate on known values. Over the past decades, multiple studies have investigated the potential of artificial intelligence in stock trading in conventional markets, with some success. In this paper, we present RCURRENCY, an RNN-based trading engine to predict data in the highly volatile digital asset market which is able to successfully manage an asset portfolio in a live environment. By combining asset value prediction and conventional trading tools, RCURRENCY determines whether to buy, hold or sell digital currencies at a given point in time. Experimental results show that, given the data of an interval $t$, a prediction with an error of less than 0.5\% of the data at the subsequent interval $t+1$ can be obtained. Evaluation of the system through backtesting shows that RCURRENCY can be used to successfully not only maintain a stable portfolio of digital assets in a simulated live environment using real historical trading data but even increase the portfolio value over time.


A Modularized and Scalable Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning-based System for Financial Portfolio Management

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Financial Portfolio Management is one of the most applicable problems in Reinforcement Learning (RL) by its sequential decision-making nature. Existing RL-based approaches, while inspiring, often lack scalability, reusability, or profundity of intake information to accommodate the ever-changing capital markets. In this paper, we design and develop MSPM, a novel Multi-agent Reinforcement learning-based system with a modularized and scalable architecture for portfolio management. MSPM involves two asynchronously updated units: Evolving Agent Module (EAM) and Strategic Agent Module (SAM). A self-sustained EAM produces signal-comprised information for a specific asset using heterogeneous data inputs, and each EAM possesses its reusability to have connections to multiple SAMs. A SAM is responsible for the assets reallocation of a portfolio using profound information from the EAMs connected. With the elaborate architecture and the multi-step condensation of the volatile market information, MSPM aims to provide a customizable, stable, and dedicated solution to portfolio management that existing approaches do not. We also tackle data-shortage issue of newly-listed stocks by transfer learning, and validate the necessity of EAM. Experiments on 8-year U.S. stock markets data prove the effectiveness of MSPM in profits accumulation by its outperformance over existing benchmarks.