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 portfolio strategy


Building crypto portfolios with agentic AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid growth of crypto markets has opened new opportunities for investors, but at the same time exposed them to high volatility. To address the challenge of managing dynamic portfolios in such an environment, this paper presents a practical application of a multi-agent system designed to autonomously construct and evaluate crypto-asset allocations. Using data on daily frequencies of the ten most capitalized cryptocurrencies from 2020 to 2025, we compare two automated investment strategies. These are a static equal weighting strategy and a rolling-window optimization strategy, both implemented to maximize the evaluation metrics of the Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), such as Expected Return, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, while minimizing volatility. Each step of the process is handled by dedicated agents, integrated through a collaborative architecture in Crew AI. The results show that the dynamic optimization strategy achieves significantly better performance in terms of risk-adjusted returns, both in-sample and out-of-sample. This highlights the benefits of adaptive techniques in portfolio management, particularly in volatile markets such as cryptocurrency markets. The following methodology proposed also demonstrates how multi-agent systems can provide scalable, auditable, and flexible solutions in financial automation.


Solving dynamic portfolio selection problems via score-based diffusion models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we tackle the dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem in a {\it model-free} manner, based on (generative) diffusion models. We propose using data sampled from the real model $\mathbb P$ (which is unknown) with limited size to train a generative model $\mathbb Q$ (from which we can easily and adequately sample). With adaptive training and sampling methods that are tailor-made for time series data, we obtain quantification bounds between $\mathbb P$ and $\mathbb Q$ in terms of the adapted Wasserstein metric $\mathcal A W_2$. Importantly, the proposed adapted sampling method also facilitates {\it conditional sampling}. In the second part of this paper, we provide the stability of the mean-variance portfolio optimization problems in $\mathcal A W _2$. Then, combined with the error bounds and the stability result, we propose a policy gradient algorithm based on the generative environment, in which our innovative adapted sampling method provides approximate scenario generators. We illustrate the performance of our algorithm on both simulated and real data. For real data, the algorithm based on the generative environment produces portfolios that beat several important baselines, including the Markowitz portfolio, the equal weight (naive) portfolio, and S\&P 500.


Top 4 Technologies that Improve Underwriting in 2022

#artificialintelligence

Insurance industry that operated with low profit margins, is facing increased competition both in terms of price and time to serve. This approach resonates with customers as 85% of customers want to buy insurance policies more quickly. How can insurers keep up? To keep up, Insurers are renewing their underwriting departments to price risk better and in less time. We explain why insurers must renew their underwriting approach and introduce four key technologies that enable more effective underwriting.


Detecting and adapting to crisis pattern with context based Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has reached super human levels in complex tasks like game solving (Go and autonomous driving). However, it remains an open question whether DRL can reach human level in applications to financial problems and in particular in detecting pattern crisis and consequently dis-investing. In this paper, we present an innovative DRL framework consisting in two sub-networks fed respectively with portfolio strategies past performances and standard deviations as well as additional contextual features. The second sub network plays an important role as it captures dependencies with common financial indicators features like risk aversion, economic surprise index and correlations between assets that allows taking into account context based information. We compare different network architectures either using layers of convolutions to reduce network's complexity or LSTM block to capture time dependency and whether previous allocations is important in the modeling. We also use adversarial training to make the final model more robust. Results on test set show this approach substantially over-performs traditional portfolio optimization methods like Markowitz and is able to detect and anticipate crisis like the current Covid one.


Adaptive Portfolio by Solving Multi-armed Bandit via Thompson Sampling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory, Markowitz's mean-variance optimization is considered a major model adopted in portfolio management. However, due to the difficulty of estimating its parameters, it cannot be applied to all periods. In some cases, naive strategies such as Equally-weighted and Value-weighted portfolios can even get better performance. Under these circumstances, we can use multiple classic strategies as multiple strategic arms in multi-armed bandit to naturally establish a connection with the portfolio selection problem. This can also help to maximize the rewards in the bandit algorithm by the trade-off between exploration and exploitation. In this paper, we present a portfolio bandit strategy through Thompson sampling which aims to make online portfolio choices by effectively exploiting the performances among multiple arms. Also, by constructing multiple strategic arms, we can obtain the optimal investment portfolio to adapt different investment periods. Moreover, we devise a novel reward function based on users' different investment risk preferences, which can be adaptive to various investment styles. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed portfolio strategy has marked superiority across representative real-world market datasets in terms of extensive evaluation criteria.


A Robust Transferable Deep Learning Framework for Cross-sectional Investment Strategy

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Stock return predictability is an important research theme as it reflects our economic and social organization, and significant efforts are made to explain the dynamism therein. Statistics of strong explanative power, called "factor" have been proposed to summarize the essence of predictive stock returns. Although machine learning methods are increasingly popular in stock return prediction, an inference of the stock returns is highly elusive, and still most investors, if partly, rely on their intuition to build a better decision making. The challenge here is to make an investment strategy that is consistent over a reasonably long period, with the minimum human decision on the entire process. To this end, we propose a new stock return prediction framework that we call Ranked Information Coefficient Neural Network (RIC-NN). RIC-NN is a deep learning approach and includes the following three novel ideas: (1) nonlinear multi-factor approach, (2) stopping criteria with ranked information coefficient (rank IC), and (3) deep transfer learning among multiple regions. Experimental comparison with the stocks in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) indices shows that RIC-NN outperforms not only off-the-shelf machine learning methods but also the average return of major equity investment funds in the last fourteen years.


Portfolio Selection via Subset Resampling

AAAI Conferences

As the cornerstone of the modern portfolio theory, Markowitz's mean-variance optimization is a major model adopted in portfolio management. However, the estimation errors in its input parameters substantially deteriorate its performance in practice. Specifically, loss could be huge when the number of assets for investment is not much smaller than the sample size of historical data. To hasten the applicability of Markowitz's portfolio optimization to large portfolios, in this paper, we propose a new portfolio strategy via subset resampling. Through resampling subsets of the original large universe of assets, we construct the associated subset portfolios with more accurately estimated parameters without requiring additional data. By aggregating a number of constructed subset portfolios, we attain a well-diversified portfolio of all assets. To investigate its performance, we first analyze its corresponding efficient frontiers by simulation, provide analysis on the hyperparameter selection, and then empirically compare its out-of-sample performance with those of various competing strategies on diversified datasets. Experimental results corroborate that the proposed portfolio strategy has marked superiority in extensive evaluation criteria.