Making theory-of-mind inferences from human dialogue is a strong indicator of a model's underlying social abilities, which are fundamental for adept AI assistants. However, large language and reasoning models struggle to understand sophisticated social phenomena in transcript data, such as sarcasm and irony. To assess the weaknesses of current models and to identify their solutions, we introduce SocialNLI (SoNLI) -- the first social dialogue inference dataset. SoNLI consists of a collection of dialogue transcripts hand-picked to center complex social nuances like irony and sarcasm, paired with inferences, corresponding likelihood scores, and human-written explanations. We explore social inference analysis as a facet of theory-of-mind, and evaluate LLM and reasoning model theory-of-mind ability through multi-step counterfactual reasoning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are revolutionizing information retrieval, with chatbots becoming an important source for answering user queries. As by their design, LLMs prioritize generating correct answers, the value of highly plausible yet incorrect answers (candidate answers) tends to be overlooked. However, such answers can still prove useful, for example, they can play a crucial role in tasks like Multiple-Choice Question Answering (MCQA) and QA Robustness Assessment (QARA). Existing QA datasets primarily focus on correct answers without explicit consideration of the plausibility of other candidate answers, limiting opportunity for more nuanced evaluations of models. To address this gap, we introduce PlausibleQA, a large-scale dataset comprising 10,000 questions and 100,000 candidate answers, each annotated with plausibility scores and justifications for their selection. Additionally, the dataset includes 900,000 justifications for pairwise comparisons between candidate answers, further refining plausibility assessments. We evaluate PlausibleQA through human assessments and empirical experiments, demonstrating its utility in MCQA and QARA analysis. Our findings show that plausibility-aware approaches are effective for MCQA distractor generation and QARA. We release PlausibleQA as a resource for advancing QA research and enhancing LLM performance in distinguishing plausible distractors from correct answers.

Modern unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are irreplaceable in search and rescue (SAR) missions to obtain a situational overview or provide closeups without endangering personnel. However, UAVs heavily rely on global navigation satellite system (GNSS) for localization which works well in open spaces, but the precision drastically degrades in the vicinity of buildings. These inaccuracies hinder aggregation of diverse data from multiple sources in a unified georeferenced frame for SAR operators. In contrast, CityGML models provide approximate building shapes with accurate georeferenced poses. Besides, LiDAR works best in the vicinity of 3D structures. Hence, we refine coarse GNSS measurements by registering LiDAR maps against CityGML and digital elevation map (DEM) models as a prior for allocentric mapping. An intuitive plausibility score selects the best hypothesis based on occupancy using a 2D height map. Afterwards, we integrate the registration results in a continuous-time spline-based pose graph optimizer with LiDAR odometry and further sensing modalities to obtain globally consistent, georeferenced trajectories and maps. We evaluate the viability of our approach on multiple flights captured at two distinct testing sites. Our method successfully reduced GNSS offset errors from up-to 16 m to below 0.5 m on multiple flights. Furthermore, we obtain globally consistent maps w.r.t. prior 3D geospatial models.

Knowledge graph embeddings (KGE) apply machine learning methods on knowledge graphs (KGs) to provide non-classical reasoning capabilities based on similarities and analogies. The learned KG embeddings are typically used to answer queries by ranking all potential answers, but rankings often lack a meaningful probabilistic interpretation - lower-ranked answers do not necessarily have a lower probability of being true. This limitation makes it difficult to distinguish plausible from implausible answers, posing challenges for the application of KGE methods in high-stakes domains like medicine. We address this issue by applying the theory of conformal prediction that allows generating answer sets, which contain the correct answer with probabilistic guarantees. We explain how conformal prediction can be used to generate such answer sets for link prediction tasks. Our empirical evaluation on four benchmark datasets using six representative KGE methods validates that the generated answer sets satisfy the probabilistic guarantees given by the theory of conformal prediction. We also demonstrate that the generated answer sets often have a sensible size and that the size adapts well with respect to the difficulty of the query.

In psycholinguistics, the creation of controlled materials is crucial to ensure that research outcomes are solely attributed to the intended manipulations and not influenced by extraneous factors. To achieve this, psycholinguists typically pretest linguistic materials, where a common pretest is to solicit plausibility judgments from human evaluators on specific sentences. In this work, we investigate whether Language Models (LMs) can be used to generate these plausibility judgements. We investigate a wide range of LMs across multiple linguistic structures and evaluate whether their plausibility judgements correlate with human judgements. We find that GPT-4 plausibility judgements highly correlate with human judgements across the structures we examine, whereas other LMs correlate well with humans on commonly used syntactic structures. We then test whether this correlation implies that LMs can be used instead of humans for pretesting. We find that when coarse-grained plausibility judgements are needed, this works well, but when fine-grained judgements are necessary, even GPT-4 does not provide satisfactory discriminative power.

Foundation models are trained on vast amounts of data at scale using self-supervised learning, enabling adaptation to a wide range of downstream tasks. At test time, these models exhibit zero-shot capabilities through which they can classify previously unseen (user-specified) categories. In this paper, we address the problem of quantifying uncertainty in these zero-shot predictions. We propose a heuristic approach for uncertainty estimation in zero-shot settings using conformal prediction with web data. Given a set of classes at test time, we conduct zero-shot classification with CLIP-style models using a prompt template, e.g., "an image of a ", and use the same template as a search query to source calibration data from the open web. Given a web-based calibration set, we apply conformal prediction with a novel conformity score that accounts for potential errors in retrieved web data. We evaluate the utility of our proposed method in Biomedical foundation models; our preliminary results show that web-based conformal prediction sets achieve the target coverage with satisfactory efficiency on a variety of biomedical datasets.

Multiple-choice tests are a common approach for assessing candidates' comprehension skills. Standard multiple-choice reading comprehension exams require candidates to select the correct answer option from a discrete set based on a question in relation to a contextual passage. For appropriate assessment, the distractor answer options must by definition be incorrect but plausible and diverse. However, generating good quality distractors satisfying these criteria is a challenging task for content creators. We propose automated assessment metrics for the quality of distractors in multiple-choice reading comprehension tests. Specifically, we define quality in terms of the incorrectness, plausibility and diversity of the distractor options. We assess incorrectness using the classification ability of a binary multiple-choice reading comprehension system. Plausibility is assessed by considering the distractor confidence - the probability mass associated with the distractor options for a standard multi-class multiple-choice reading comprehension system. Diversity is assessed by pairwise comparison of an embedding-based equivalence metric between the distractors of a question. To further validate the plausibility metric we compare against candidate distributions over multiple-choice questions and agreement with a ChatGPT model's interpretation of distractor plausibility and diversity.

Recently, end-to-end trained models for multiple-choice commonsense question answering (QA) have delivered promising results. However, such question-answering systems cannot be directly applied in real-world scenarios where answer candidates are not provided. Hence, a new benchmark challenge set for open-ended commonsense reasoning (OpenCSR) has been recently released, which contains natural science questions without any predefined choices. On the OpenCSR challenge set, many questions require implicit multi-hop reasoning and have a large decision space, reflecting the difficult nature of this task. Existing work on OpenCSR sorely focuses on improving the retrieval process, which extracts relevant factual sentences from a textual knowledge base, leaving the important and non-trivial reasoning task outside the scope. In this work, we extend the scope to include a reasoner that constructs a question-dependent open knowledge graph based on retrieved supporting facts and employs a sequential subgraph reasoning process to predict the answer. The subgraph can be seen as a concise and compact graphical explanation of the prediction. Experiments on two OpenCSR datasets show that the proposed model achieves great performance on benchmark OpenCSR datasets.

In order to reach human performance on complex visual tasks, artificial systems need to incorporate a significant amount of understanding of the world in terms of macroscopic objects, movements, forces, etc. Inspired by work on intuitive physics in infants, we propose an evaluation framework which diagnoses how much a given system understands about physics by testing whether it can tell apart well matched videos of possible versus impossible events. The test requires systems to compute a physical plausibility score over an entire video. It is free of bias and can test a range of specific physical reasoning skills. We then describe the first release of a benchmark dataset aimed at learning intuitive physics in an unsupervised way, using videos constructed with a game engine. We describe two Deep Neural Network baseline systems trained with a future frame prediction objective and tested on the possible versus impossible discrimination task. The analysis of their results compared to human data gives novel insights in the potentials and limitations of next frame prediction architectures.

Inference techniques play a central role in many cognitive systems. They transform low-level observations of the environment into high-level, actionable knowledge which then gets used by mechanisms that drive action, problem-solving, and learning. This paper presents an initial effort at combining results from AI and psychology into a pragmatic and scalable computational reasoning system. Our approach combines a numeric notion of plausibility with first-order logic to produce an incremental inference engine that is guided by heuristics derived from the psychological literature. We illustrate core ideas with detailed examples and discuss the advantages of the approach with respect to cognitive systems.