Accurate precipitation nowcasting is essential for various purposes, including flood prediction, disaster management, optimizing agricultural activities, managing transportation routes and renewable energy. While several studies have addressed this challenging task from a sequence-to-sequence perspective, most of them have focused on a single area without considering the existing correlation between multiple disjoint regions. In this paper, we formulate precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal graph sequence nowcasting problem. In particular, we introduce Graph Dual-stream Convolutional Attention Fusion (GD-CAF), a novel approach designed to learn from historical spatiotemporal graph of precipitation maps and nowcast future time step ahead precipitation at different spatial locations. GD-CAF consists of spatio-temporal convolutional attention as well as gated fusion modules which are equipped with depthwise-separable convolutional operations. This enhancement enables the model to directly process the high-dimensional spatiotemporal graph of precipitation maps and exploits higher-order correlations between the data dimensions. We evaluate our model on seven years of precipitation maps across Europe and its neighboring areas collected from the ERA5 dataset, provided by Copernicus. The model receives a fully connected graph in which each node represents historical observations from a specific region on the map. Consequently, each node contains a 3D tensor with time, height, and width dimensions. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed GD-CAF model outperforms the other examined models. Furthermore, the averaged seasonal spatial and temporal attention scores over the test set are visualized to provide additional insights about the strongest connections between different regions or time steps. These visualizations shed light on the decision-making process of our model.

The accuracy and explainability of data-driven nowcasting models are of great importance in many socio-economic sectors reliant on weather-dependent decision making. This paper proposes a novel architecture called Small Attention Residual UNet (SAR-UNet) for precipitation and cloud cover nowcasting. Here, SmaAt-UNet is used as a core model and is further equipped with residual connections, parallel to the depthwise separable convolutions. The proposed SAR-UNet model is evaluated on two datasets, i.e., Dutch precipitation maps ranging from 2016 to 2019 and French cloud cover binary images from 2017 to 2018. The obtained results show that SAR-UNet outperforms other examined models in precipitation nowcasting from 30 to 180 minutes in the future as well as cloud cover nowcasting in the next 90 minutes. Furthermore, we provide additional insights on the nowcasts made by our proposed model using Grad-CAM, a visual explanation technique, which is employed on different levels of the encoder and decoder paths of the SAR-UNet model and produces heatmaps highlighting the critical regions in the input image as well as intermediate representations to the precipitation. The heatmaps generated by Grad-CAM reveal the interactions between the residual connections and the depthwise separable convolutions inside of the multiple depthwise separable blocks placed throughout the network architecture.

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in the form of quantiles, prediction intervals, or full predictive densities. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of an approach for nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of wind power that combines support vector machines and nonlinear quantile regression with non-crossing constraints. A numerical case study is conducted using publicly available wind data from the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. Multiple quantiles are estimated to form 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% prediction intervals which are evaluated using the pinball loss function and reliability measures. Three benchmark models are used for comparison where results demonstrate the proposed approach leads to significantly better performance while preventing the problem of overlapping quantile estimates.

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision making processes in the smart power gird for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in the form of quantiles, prediction intervals, or full predictive densities. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of an approach for nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of wind power that combines support vector machines and nonlinear quantile regression with non-crossing constraints. A numerical case study is conducted using publicly available wind data from the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014. Multiple quantiles are estimated to form 20%, 40%, 60% and 80% prediction intervals which are evaluated using the pinball loss function and reliability measures. Three benchmark models are used for comparison where results demonstrate the proposed approach leads to significantly better performance while preventing the problem of overlapping quantile estimates.