This is the third blog post in a series covering churn and lifetime customer value (Introduction to Churn & Introduction to LTV). There are many ways to predict churn rate on the individual customer level. The full code is available in the Jupyter notebook. In this dataset, we have users of the KKBOX music streaming service along with their attributes, transaction histories and churn label (whether a customer will churn out in the next 30 days). Due to the nature of the business, customers can put subscriptions on pause or change subscription intervals, which makes this dataset both contractual and non-contractual simultaneously.

Whether stochastic or parametric, the Pareto/NBD model can only be utilized for an in-sample prediction rather than an out-of-sample prediction. This research thus provides a neural network based extension of the Pareto/NBD model to estimate the out-of-sample parameters, which overrides the estimation burden and the application dilemma of the Pareto/NBD approach. The empirical results indicate that the Pareto/NBD model and neural network algorithms have similar predictability for identifying inactive customers. Even with a strong trend fitting on the customer count of each repeat purchase point, the Pareto/NBD model underestimates repeat purchases at both the individual and aggregate levels. Nonetheless, when embedding the likelihood function of the Pareto/NBD model into the loss function, the proposed parameter estimation method shows extraordinary predictability on repeat purchases at these two levels. Furthermore, the proposed neural network based method is highly efficient and resource-friendly and can be deployed in cloud computing to handle with big data analysis.

Nowadays, video game developers record every virtual action performed by their players. As each player can remain in the game for years, this results in an exceptionally rich dataset that can be used to understand and predict player behavior. In particular, this information may serve to identify the most valuable players and foresee the amount of money they will spend in in-app purchases during their lifetime. This is crucial in free-to-play games, where up to 50% of the revenue is generated by just around 2% of the players, the so-called whales. To address this challenge, we explore how deep neural networks can be used to predict customer lifetime value in video games, and compare their performance to parametric models such as Pareto/NBD. Our results suggest that convolutional neural network structures are the most efficient in predicting the economic value of individual players. They not only perform better in terms of accuracy, but also scale to big data and significantly reduce computational time, as they can work directly with raw sequential data and thus do not require any feature engineering process. This becomes important when datasets are very large, as is often the case with video game logs. Moreover, convolutional neural networks are particularly well suited to identify potential whales. Such an early identification is of paramount importance for business purposes, as it would allow developers to implement in-game actions aimed at retaining big spenders and maximizing their lifetime, which would ultimately translate into increased revenue.