Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

In linear stochastic bandits, it is commonly assumed that pa yoffs are with sub-Gaussian noises. In this paper, under a weaker assumption on noises, we study the problem of lin ear stochastic b andits with he avy-t ailed payoffs (LinBET), where the distributions have finite moments of order 1+ ϵ,f o rs o m e ϵ (0, 1] .W e rigorously analyze the regret lower bound of LinBET as Ω( T

Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) policies have achieved Best-of-Both-Worlds (BOBW) results in various settings through hybrid regularizers, whereas analogous results for Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FTPL) remain limited due to inherent analytical challenges. To advance the analytical foundations of FTPL, we revisit classical FTRL-FTPL duality for unbounded perturbations and establish BOBW results for FTPL under a broad family of asymmetric unbounded Fréchet-type perturbations, including hybrid perturbations combining Gumbel-type and Fréchet-type tails. These results not only extend the BOBW results of FTPL but also offer new insights into designing alternative FTPL policies competitive with hybrid regularization approaches. Motivated by earlier observations in two-armed bandits, we further investigate the connection between the $1/2$-Tsallis entropy and a Fréchet-type perturbation. Our numerical observations suggest that it corresponds to a symmetric Fréchet-type perturbation, and based on this, we establish the first BOBW guarantee for symmetric unbounded perturbations in the two-armed setting. In contrast, in general multi-armed bandits, we find an instance in which symmetric Fréchet-type perturbations violate the key condition for standard BOBW analysis, which is a problem not observed with asymmetric or nonnegative Fréchet-type perturbations. Although this example does not rule out alternative analyses achieving BOBW results, it suggests the limitations of directly applying the relationship observed in two-armed cases to the general case and thus emphasizes the need for further investigation to fully understand the behavior of FTPL in broader settings.

This paper studies the optimality and complexity of Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FTPL) policy in size-invariant combinatorial semi-bandit problems. Recently, Honda et al. (2023) and Lee et al. (2024) showed that FTPL achieves Best-of-Both-Worlds (BOBW) optimality in standard multi-armed bandit problems with Fréchet-type distributions. However, the optimality of FTPL in combinatorial semi-bandit problems remains unclear. In this paper, we consider the regret bound of FTPL with geometric resampling (GR) in size-invariant semi-bandit setting, showing that FTPL respectively achieves $O\left(\sqrt{m^2 d^\frac{1}αT}+\sqrt{mdT}\right)$ regret with Fréchet distributions, and the best possible regret bound of $O\left(\sqrt{mdT}\right)$ with Pareto distributions in adversarial setting. Furthermore, we extend the conditional geometric resampling (CGR) to size-invariant semi-bandit setting, which reduces the computational complexity from $O(d^2)$ of original GR to $O\left(md\left(\log(d/m)+1\right)\right)$ without sacrificing the regret performance of FTPL.

Causal effect estimation seeks to determine the impact of an intervention from observational data. However, the existing causal inference literature primarily addresses treatment effects on frequently occurring events. But what if we are interested in estimating the effects of a policy intervention whose benefits, while potentially important, can only be observed and measured in rare yet impactful events, such as extreme climate events? The standard causal inference methodology is not designed for this type of inference since the events of interest may be scarce in the observed data and some degree of extrapolation is necessary. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) provides methodologies for analyzing statistical phenomena in such extreme regimes. We introduce a novel framework for assessing treatment effects in extreme data to capture the causal effect at the occurrence of rare events of interest. In particular, we employ the theory of multivariate regular variation to model extremities. We develop a consistent estimator for extreme treatment effects and present a rigorous non-asymptotic analysis of its performance. We illustrate the performance of our estimator using both synthetic and semi-synthetic data.

Sparsified Learning is ubiquitous in many machine learning tasks. It aims to regularize the objective function by adding a penalization term that considers the constraints made on the learned parameters. This paper considers the problem of learning heavy-tailed LSP. We develop a flexible and robust sparse learning framework capable of handling heavy-tailed data with locally stationary behavior and propose concentration inequalities. We further provide non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for different types of sparsity, including $\ell_1$-norm and total variation penalization for the least square loss.

In many areas of medicine, security, and life sciences, we want to allocate limited resources to different sources in order to detect extreme values. In this paper, we study an efficient way to allocate these resources sequentially under limited feedback. While sequential design of experiments is well studied in bandit theory, the most commonly optimized property is the regret with respect to the maximum mean reward. However, in other problems such as network intrusion detection, we are interested in detecting the most extreme value output by the sources. Therefore, in our work we study extreme regret which measures the efficiency of an algorithm compared to the oracle policy selecting the source with the heaviest tail.

In many areas of medicine, security, and life sciences, we want to allocate limited resources to different sources in order to detect extreme values. In this paper, we study an efficient way to allocate these resources sequentially under limited feedback. While sequential design of experiments is well studied in bandit theory, the most commonly optimized property is the regret with respect to the maximum mean reward. However, in other problems such as network intrusion detection, we are interested in detecting the most extreme value output by the sources. Therefore, in our work we study extreme regret which measures the efficiency of an algorithm compared to the oracle policy selecting the source with the heaviest tail.

Numerous robust estimators exist as alternatives to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) when a completely observed ground-up loss severity sample dataset is available. However, the options for robust alternatives to MLE become significantly limited when dealing with grouped loss severity data, with only a handful of methods like least squares, minimum Hellinger distance, and optimal bounded influence function available. This paper introduces a novel robust estimation technique, the Method of Truncated Moments (MTuM), specifically designed to estimate the tail index of a Pareto distribution from grouped data. Inferential justification of MTuM is established by employing the central limit theorem and validating them through a comprehensive simulation study.

Recent wildfires in Australia have led to considerable economic loss and property destruction, and there is increasing concern that climate change may exacerbate their intensity, duration, and frequency. Hazard quantification for extreme wildfires is an important component of wildfire management, as it facilitates efficient resource distribution, adverse effect mitigation, and recovery efforts. However, although extreme wildfires are typically the most impactful, both small and moderate fires can still be devastating to local communities and ecosystems. Therefore, it is imperative to develop robust statistical methods to reliably model the full distribution of wildfire spread. We do so for a novel dataset of Australian wildfires from 1999 to 2019, and analyse monthly spread over areas approximately corresponding to Statistical Areas Level 1 and 2 (SA1/SA2) regions. Given the complex nature of wildfire ignition and spread, we exploit recent advances in statistical deep learning and extreme value theory to construct a parametric regression model using graph convolutional neural networks and the extended generalized Pareto distribution, which allows us to model wildfire spread observed on an irregular spatial domain. We highlight the efficacy of our newly proposed model and perform a wildfire hazard assessment for Australia and population-dense communities, namely Tasmania, Sydney, Melbourne, and Perth.