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 pandemic spread


Spatio-Temporal SIR Model of Pandemic Spread During Warfare with Optimal Dual-use Healthcare System Administration using Deep Reinforcement Learning

Shuchami, Adi, Lazebnik, Teddy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large-scale crises, including wars and pandemics, have repeatedly shaped human history, and their simultaneous occurrence presents profound challenges to societies. Understanding the dynamics of epidemic spread during warfare is essential for developing effective containment strategies in complex conflict zones. While research has explored epidemic models in various settings, the impact of warfare on epidemic dynamics remains underexplored. In this study, we proposed a novel mathematical model that integrates the epidemiological SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model with the war dynamics Lanchester model to explore the dual influence of war and pandemic on a population's mortality. Moreover, we consider a dual-use military and civil healthcare system that aims to reduce the overall mortality rate which can use different administration policies. Using an agent-based simulation to generate in silico data, we trained a deep reinforcement learning model for healthcare administration policy and conducted an intensive investigation on its performance. Our results show that a pandemic during war conduces chaotic dynamics where the healthcare system should either prioritize war-injured soldiers or pandemic-infected civilians based on the immediate amount of mortality from each option, ignoring long-term objectives. Our findings highlight the importance of integrating conflict-related factors into epidemic modeling to enhance preparedness and response strategies in conflict-affected areas.


Analysis of the Spatio-temporal Dynamics of COVID-19 in Massachusetts via Spectral Graph Wavelet Theory

Geng, Ru, Gao, Yixian, Zhang, Hongkun, Zu, Jian

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapid spread of COVID-19 disease has had a significant impact on the world. In this paper, we study COVID-19 data interpretation and visualization using open-data sources for 351 cities and towns in Massachusetts from December 6, 2020 to September 25, 2021. Because cities are embedded in rather complex transportation networks, we construct the spatio-temporal dynamic graph model, in which the graph attention neural network is utilized as a deep learning method to learn the pandemic transition probability among major cities in Massachusetts. Using the spectral graph wavelet transform (SGWT), we process the COVID-19 data on the dynamic graph, which enables us to design effective tools to analyze and detect spatio-temporal patterns in the pandemic spreading. We design a new node classification method, which effectively identifies the anomaly cities based on spectral graph wavelet coefficients. It can assist administrations or public health organizations in monitoring the spread of the pandemic and developing preventive measures. Unlike most work focusing on the evolution of confirmed cases over time, we focus on the spatio-temporal patterns of pandemic evolution among cities. Through the data analysis and visualization, a better understanding of the epidemiological development at the city level is obtained and can be helpful with city-specific surveillance.


How Pandemic Spread in News: Text Analysis Using Topic Model

Wang, Minghao, Mengoni, Paolo

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Researches about COVID-19 has increased largely, no matter in the biology field or the others. This research conducted a text analysis using LDA topic model. We firstly scraped totally 1127 articles and 5563 comments on SCMP covering COVID-19 from Jan 20 to May 19, then we trained the LDA model and tuned parameters based on the Cv coherence as the model evaluation method. With the optimal model, dominant topics, representative documents of each topic and the inconsistence between articles and comments are analyzed. 3 possible improvements are discussed at last.